Contract Year Player Outlook: Dawson Knox (2022 Fantasy Football)
We recently look at the impact contract status has on fantasy football performance. Focusing specifically on players entering the final year of their rookie contracts, Sam Ryner put together key general takeaways and also players impacted entering the 2022 fantasy football season. Let’s take a deeper dive on one of those players, Dawson Knox.
Other Contract Year Player Outlooks:
Contract-season fantasy performances for TEs (2017-21; PPR scoring)
- 66.7% produced a PPG at least one point above their career average.
- 27.8% produced a PPG at least one point below their career average.
- 5.5% produced a PPG within one point of their career average.
- 38.8% had the best season-end rank of their rookie contract.
- 27.8% had the worst season-end rank of their rookie contract.
Fun Fact: Of the TEs who saw their PPG drop by at least one point in their contract season, 60% of those players were not starting for their team and the other 40% played in TE committees during their contract season.
What this means: The fun fact listed above is an important one. The data shows that TEs generally improve in their contract season regardless of what their role is in their offense, but the odds of a TE increasing his production in his contract season have been almost a certainty if he is the primary TE in his team’s offense. In the past five seasons, 90% of players who functioned as their team’s primary TE in their contract year have produced a PPG number that is at least one point better than their career average. This bodes well for both Irv Smith Jr. and Dawson Knox heading into this season.
Dawson Knox 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to super-low target rate per route run (14%), so any role that O.J. Howard potential earns
coming in is a massive problem.
Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle-range of TEs (TE9) that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills tight end remains hands-off.
– Andrew Erickson
2022 Fantasy Football Staff Consensus Rankings
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