Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown square off in a debate over Bears running back David Montgomery. Will you draft or fade Montgomery at his current cost (ADP RB16 – ECR RB16)?
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The case to fade David Montgomery
Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.
– Andrew Erickson
The case to draft David Montgomery
David Montgomery finished as the RB12 and RB6 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons, surpassing expectations. The Bears’ receiving weapons are depleted outside of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, so there’s an easy pathway for plenty of check downs weekly. With Fields under center, he saw 4.75 targets per game, which would be a new career-high if that repeats this upcoming season. Montgomery needs the added fantasy points through the air because outside of raw volume on the ground, the big plays likely won’t be there to lead to ceiling weeks. Montgomery is a volume RB2 with an upside for more.
– Derek Brown
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