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Top Bust Candidates on Each NFL Team (2022 Fantasy Football)

Busts. They can sink your fantasy season. The definition of a bust is subjective, but the general concept is that a player severely underperforms relative to where they were being drafted during draft season. Boom = overperforming. Bust = underperforming.

Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the top bust candidates on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.

Previously, our analysts took a look at the most overrated and underrated players, the top rookies, and the top breakout candidates on each NFL team:

CTAs

AFC East

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Buffalo Bills Dawson Knox Dawson Knox Dawson Knox James Cook Dawson Knox
Miami Dolphins Jaylen Waddle Tyreek Hill Mike Gesicki Chase Edmonds Chase Edmonds
New England Patriots Damien Harris Damien Harris Damien Harris Damien Harris DeVante Parker
New York Jets Garrett Wilson Zach Wilson Zach Wilson Zach Wilson Zach Wilson

Buffalo Bills
Everyone seems to love Buffalo as a landing sport for James Cook, but should they? In Josh Allen’s four seasons as the Bills’ QB, no Bills RB has topped 870 rushing yards; no Bills RB has topped 269 receiving yards; Bills RBs have ranked 19th, 26th, 29th and 29th in the NFL in percentage of team targets; and Allen has had 31 TD runs, while all Bills RBs combined have had 28 TD runs. Yes, the Buffalo offense should be prolific, but I don’t see the appeal of a pass-catching RB on a team that doesn’t use its RBs in the passing game very often.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins this offseason, but it’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-10 season with a lesser passer. His current ADP and ECR ranking is WR9.
– Andrew Erickson

New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson (93) and Damien Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games they played together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9). Harris’ overall production was heavily inflated by his 15 touchdowns, which were nearly six more than his expected output.

With a limited role as a receiver, Harris has a limited fantasy ceiling that is accompanied by a super shaky floor if he loses volume to other Patriots’ running backs or fails to score touchdowns at the same rate as last season.
– Andrew Erickson

New York Jets
I don’t think that WR Garrett Wilson is destined to bust in 2022 … but QB Zach Wilson has underwhelmed to this point in his career, second-year WR Elijah Moore might be better than Wilson based on his flash production last season (34-459-5 receiving on 51 targets in final six games), veteran WR Corey Davis will push Wilson for snaps and targets and the Jets offense will likely lean on the running game. It’s not hard to see how his circumstances could cause him to underperform his ADP.
– Matthew Freedman

AFC North

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Baltimore Ravens J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins J.K. Dobbins Rashod Bateman
Cincinnati Bengals Tee Higgins Hayden Hurst Joe Mixon Joe Mixon Joe Mixon
Cleveland Browns Amari Cooper Amari Cooper Amari Cooper David Njoku Amari Cooper
Pittsburgh Steelers Pat Freiermuth Diontae Johnson Pat Freiermuth Dionte Johnson Chase Claypool

Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins had a terrific rookie season in 2020, but now he’s coming back from an ACL tear that cost him the entire 2021, and he reportedly sustained LCL damage, too. Reports about Dobbins’ recovery haven’t painted a clear picture. Even if all systems are go, the Ravens are likely to use a committee approach at RB once again, and Dobbins isn’t likely to catch many passes since QB Lamar Jackson rarely throws to his RBs.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon is a very good running back on a very good offense. However, if the Bengals get extremely pass-heavy, Mixon may not return his first-round value. Unlikely, but possible.
– Joe Pisapia

Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper’s ranking of WR23 in ECR is astoundingly optimistic. Even if we aren’t factoring in a looming suspension for Deshaun Watson, Cooper is a player on the decline. Cooper has seen his yards per route run drop in each of the past three seasons. Last year with Dak Prescott, he could only muster a WR25 finish, but we’re ranking him even higher this year? Cooper can pull off a middling WR3 season on a run-first team, but landing inside the top 24 is difficult to envision.
– Derek Brown

Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson’s expert consensus rating (ECR) of WR14 is super aggressive. It’s a ridiculous price to pay up even for a target hog like Johnson when he will almost surely see inefficient targets and likely less sheer volume in an offense that looks much run-centric than in years past. There’s a high probability that the Steelers’ pass-play rates drop dramatically with an inexperienced and/or new quarterback. Pittsburgh has ranked second in pass-play rate over the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in pass-play rate. Nobody on that offense saw more than 100 targets.
– Andrew Erickson

AFC South

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Houston Texans Dameon Pierce Marlon Mack Dameon Pierce Dameon Pierce Davis Mills
Indianapolis Colts Alec Pierce Alec Pierce Mo Alie-Cox Mo Alie-Cox Alec Pierce
Jacksonville Jaguars Christian Kirk Evan Engram Evan Engram Evan Engram Evan Engram
Tennessee Titans Robert Woods Robert Woods Robert Woods Ryan Tannehill Treylon Burks

Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce is an intriguing RB prospect, but there seems to be a misconception about how wide his path to relevance is. Some people are drawn to Pierce because he only has to beat out Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack to ascend to the top of the depth chart, but the likeliest outcome is that the Texans go with a committee approach at RB. And even if Pierce becomes the lead back, he’ll be playing in a bad offense and facing a lot of negative game scripts. It’s hard to envision scenarios in which you’d enthusiastically insert him into your starting lineup.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Indianapolis Colts
Alec Pierce is a rookie in an offense commited to running the football. He could grow into a #2 receiver as the year progresses, but that may be too late to recoup a fantasy investment in him.
– Joe Pisapia

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Doug Pederson, tight end corollary, has given consensus rose-colored glasses when it comes to Evan Engram. He’s seen his efficiency tank as his yards per route run, and YAC per reception have trended down in the last four seasons. Engram ranked 54th in yards per route run and 41st in YAC per reception last season (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Don’t fall for the hype and hope.
– Derek Brown

Tennessee Titans
Robert Woods is an aging veteran that has the deck stacked against him. Even if we disregard the history of wide receivers changing teams. Even if we try to forget he’s been transplanted from a pass-happy team (Rams, seventh in neutral passing rate) to a run-centric one (30th in neutral passing rate). And Even if we brain fart and miss that, he couldn’t crest 1.7 yards per route run in 55.5% of his games (per PFF). Woods remains a 30-year-old wide receiver coming off an ACL injury.
– Derek Brown

AFC West

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Denver Broncos Jerry Jeudy Jerry Jeudy Jerry Jeudy Courtland Sutton Courtland Sutton
Kansas City Chiefs Clyde Edwards-Helaire Patrick Mahomes Juju Smith-Schuster Clyde Edwards-Helaire Juju Smith-Schuster
Las Vegas Raiders Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs
Los Angeles Chargers Keenan Allen Isaiah Spiller Keenan Allen Keenan Allen Mike Williams

Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton. But the real answer here is that every week, someone in this WR group could be a bust. Russell Wilson may develop a “favorite” target, or he may just spread the ball around week to week. We don’t know for sure, because it’s too new. We all can just plant our flags, or better yet, play CB matchups in DFS with the Broncos’ opponents on a weekly basis.
– Joe Pisapia

Kansas City Chiefs
Tyreek Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo of Patrick Mahomes/Hill ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season. There’s genuine concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill that is not being factored into his QB3 ADP and ECR ranking.
– Joe Pisapia

Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs was a volume hog last year, ranking ninth in opportunity share and weighted opportunity, but that will be difficult to repeat in 2022. Jacobs’ ranking of RB23 in ECR is ambitious, considering he’ll be sitting on the sidelines on many passing downs. Brandon Bolden, Kenyan Drake, and Ameer Abdullah ranked fourth, sixth, and 15th in yards per route run last year among running backs (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). If any of these backs also eat into his red-zone work, he’s toast in 2022.
– Derek Brown

Los Angeles Chargers
Yeah, I’ll say it: Mike Williams could be a bust. I’m not drafting him to be that, but he still could be again. He’s had a history of sporadic productivity and injuries, so that has to be understood when investing in him. I’m still investing, mind you, but I’m not sleeping through the night about it.
– Joe Pisapia

CTAs

NFC East

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Dallas Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel Elliott Tony Pollard
New York Giants Kadarius Toney Kenny Golladay Kenny Golladay Saquon Barkley Kenny Golladay
Philadelphia Eagles Miles Sanders Miles Sanders DeVonta Smith A.J. Brown Miles Sanders
Washington Commanders Antonio Gibson Antonio Gibson Antonio Gibson Antonio Gibson Antonio Gibson

Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the final eight weeks of the fantasy season. He scored 6 TDs. Tony Pollard averaged 10.5 fantasy points with just one touchdown scored. It’s so obvious Pollard is going to have a larger role — especially as a receiver — after finishing 3rd in yards per route run over the final 8 weeks. Zeke is just holding onto TD equity in a high-powered Cowboys offense, making him super dependent on surrounding circumstances. If he doesn’t score or the OL regresses, Elliott managers are in for a rude awakening.
– Andrew Erickson

New York Giants
Bad quarterback play and a broken offensive gameplan last year still can’t cover up the fact that Kenny Golladay looked like a player on his last legs. Golladay ranked 74th in route win rate and 83rd in win rate against man coverage. Golladay will have a front-row seat to the Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson show in 2022.
– Derek Brown

Philadelphia Eagles
I’m just sick and tired of the Eagles’ run game when it comes to fantasy. Coaching changes haven’t made Miles Sanders a star, and too many names muddy the field every season. Not to mention, the run-first QB under center limits Sanders’ ceiling.
– Joe Pisapia

Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson is facing a major uphill battle for maximum upside that he’s virtually hands-off in the first five rounds. He finished as a fantasy RB2 in just 53% of his games last season. Three of them came in games that J.D. McKissic missed last season. McKissic — keep in mind half-point scoring — finished as fantasy RB2 in 45% in the 11 games he played last season. With third-round rookie running back Brian Robinson added into the mix as a likely candidate to earn touches on early downs and at the goal line, the volume distribution in the Washington backfield is not favoring Gibson’s fantasy upside. Third-round running backs have earned 125 touches on average since 2013, making it unlikely AG is able to repeat his fourth-ranked 300-touch workload from a season ago.
– Andrew Erickson

NFC North

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Chicago Bears Darnell Mooney David Montgomery David Montgomery Justin Fields David Montgomery
Detroit Lions T.J. Hockenson Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown T.J. Hockenson
Green Bay Packers Christian Watson Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers Allen Lazard Aaron Jones
Minnesota Vikings Dalvin Cook Adam Thielen Adam Thielen Adam Thielen Adam Thielen

Chicago Bears
David Montgomery is a serviceable RB, but Khalil Herbert passed the eye test more for me in 2021. Herbert was very solid when Monty was on the shelf last year. If the two ended up in 60/40 split, even if Monty is the big spoon, it will cap what he can bring up in fantasy production.
– Joe Pisapia

Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson is a very talented TE, but the Lions wide receiver corps has improved greatly over the last two years. Amon-Ra St. Brown was incredibly consistent last year, D.J. Chark was brought in via FA and they drafted Jameson Williams (who may be the most talented WR of his class). With a run-first mentality, Hockenson could easily see his target share get squeezed, making him a potential fantasy bust.
– Joe Pisapia

Green Bay Packers
Allen Lazard *appears* to be the Packers’ de facto WR1, but (1) there are other WRs on the depth chart who could overtake him; (2) it’s still possible Green Bay signs a once-prolific WR like Julio Jones or Will Fuller to further obscure the target outlook; and (3) even if Lazard really is the WR1, it’s possible Green Bay’s leading receiver finishes with something like 55 catches for 700 yards. Lazard is a former undrafted free agent who hasn’t seen more than 60 targets in any of his four NFL seasons. The enthusiasm for him seems a little misguided.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Minnesota Vikings
Adam Thielen failed to finish as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in over half of his games for the second straight season in 2021. The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s just not sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16. Also, AT’s age may finally catch up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter in 2016. With a slew of ankle injuries from last season also foreshadowing more potential issues for Thielen in 2022, the Vikings wide receiver has a plethora of red flags that suggest staying away entirely.
– Andrew Erickson

NFC South

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Atlanta Falcons Kyle Pitts Cordarrelle Patterson Cordarrelle Patterson Cordarrelle Patterson Cordarrelle Patterson
Carolina Panthers Robbie Anderson Robbie Anderson Robbie Anderson Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield
New Orleans Saints Alvin Kamara Michael Thomas Michael Thomas Michael Thomas Michael Thomas
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin Cameron Brate Chris Godwin Tom Brady Chris Godwin

Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson is 31, which is ancient for a running back. The Falcons were concerned enough about his physical well-being after a career-high 205 touches last year that they let him skip spring workouts and OTAs. Patterson is unlikely to get another 154 carries after his rushing production completely cratered late in the season — he averaged 2.3 yards per carry over Atlanta’s last four games — and he’s unlikely to equal last year’s 52 catches now that the Falcons have added big-bodied rookie WR Drake London. Also, we can say with 99.9% certainty that the Falcons’ offense is going to be terrible. C-Patt is an easy pass in 2022 drafts.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Carolina Panthers
Last year, Robbie Anderson succumbed to the age apex. He ranked 56th in route win rate and 49th in win rate versus man coverage. Even a quarterback upgrade with Baker Mayfield can only do so much. D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey will be the pillars of the passing game, with ample opportunity for Terrace Marshall to step up in his second year.
– Derek Brown

New Orleans Saints
It’s starting to feel like Michael Thomas is in witness protection. He’s barely seen the field in two years and his injury status seems as vague as ever. It’s really tough to make an investment in Thomas and not see the potential downside based on health, rust, coaching changeover, QB changeover, etc…
– Joe Pisapia

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has started at age 45; Tom Brady will be the first. We’ve seen other great quarterbacks play at a high level and then suddenly careen over the age cliff and have terrible seasons. It happened to Brett Favre at age 41. It happened to Peyton Manning at age 39. Who’s to say Brady is immune to a similar fate at an even older age? Brady’s longtime running buddy, TE Rob Gronkowski, has announced his retirement, and ace WR Chris Godwin could miss the start of the regular season while recovering from a torn ACL that wasn’t repaired until early January. Brady may indeed be the GOAT, but he’s far from a safe fantasy option in 2022.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

NFC West

TEAM Freedman Erickson DBro Pat Joe
Arizona Cardinals DeAndre Hopkins James Conner Zach Ertz James Conner Marquise Brown
Los Angeles Rams Allen Robinson Allen Robinson Allen Robinson Allen Robinson Allen Robinson
San Francisco 49ers Deebo Samuel Elijah Mitchell Elijah Mitchell Elijah Mitchell Elijah Mitchell
Seattle Seahawks Tyler Lockett DK Metcalf Noah Fant DK Metcalf DK Metcalf

Arizona Cardinals
After arriving in Arizona last year, Zach Ertz was second in target share and third in WOPR among tight ends as the TE4 in fantasy. While he’s not valued at this level (TE9 in ECR), Ertz could still have issues retaining his top ten status, much less flashing upside for more. With Marquise Brown in town, James Conner operating as a bell cow, and ascension from Rondale Moore, Ertz could see his target share cut into in 2022, especially when DeAndre Hopkins also returns to the lineup.
– Derek Brown

Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers could be considered a bust candidate after an Achilles tear and a shaky postseason, but are we absolutely positive that Allen Robinson’s lousy season in Chicago last year was a mirage? A-Rob is entering his age-29 season. He tore his ACL in 2017 and has dealt with hamstring issues the past two years. Yes, he gets a major QB upgrade by joining Matthew Stafford on the Rams, but Robinson must now share targets with certified superstar Cooper Kupp. A-Rob could certainly enjoy a rebound season in L.A., but it’s not a slam dunk.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell was third in opportunity share and 13th in carries last season. If Tyrion Davis-Price hits the ground running, Mitchell will see these numbers decline. This isn’t even baking in Trey Lance into the ground game, either. Mitchell was 31st in weighted opportunity and 41st in red zone touches last season. He doesn’t have the touchdown equity in this offense to compensate for any lost volume if he’s going to meet expectations as the RB24 in ECR.
– Derek Brown

Seattle Seahawks
There are a lot of WRs that failed to meet expectations last season who fantasy managers are hoping to bounce back in 2022. That’s going to be the narrative after how things shake out for DK Metcalf after this season with Geno Smith and Drew Lock at quarterback. Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons — but I anticipate scoring to be in short supply for this 2022 Seahawks offense. There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.
– Andrew Erickson

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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