Most of us can recall our best year ever. It could have been the year you got married. Maybe the birth of a child harkens the most joyous memories. Until I met my wife and went through all those amazing events, I might have said trying out for American Idol or winning a ghost pepper wing eating contest were my proudest moments.
Fantasy football in its genesis form only scored yards and touchdowns. There was no PPR, nor even flex positions. My memory bank is enriched with lucid dreams of LaDainian Tomlinson and Tony Gonzalez touchdown frenzies. Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison stacks ruled back in the day with the barrage of touchdowns scored. The difference is that those players are all enshrined in Canton because they scored multitudes of touchdowns for our fantasy teams every single season.
2021 saw a lot of huge fantasy performances. A few of them were the usual suspects, while many were very surprising, to say the least. A good fantasy football manager doesn’t “chase” last year’s fantasy points. Touchdowns are the least predictable statistic and only sticky for those early-round no-brainer picks.
To avoid chasing the flashes in the pan, I have identified four RBs who are far more likely to see their 2021 touchdown totals drop precipitously than replicate.
The Patriots love to run the football. They were especially fond of shoving the ball into the gut of their parade of running backs last season with a rookie quarterback at the helm. The result was a deluge of touchdowns for the supposed leader of the New England backfield, Damien Harris. The Alabama product was as reliable a fantasy option in a Belichick backfield as anyone since LeGarrette Blount. That is if it was his week to shine.
When peeling back the curtain on this 929-yard season, there are clear indications that it would be foolish to predict a repeat performance from Harris. Early on, the mercurial Belichick rode Harris to the tune of 39 attempts in the first two games. In Weeks 3 and 4, it was promising rookie Rhamondre Stevenson who was the bell cow. Harris had fumbled several times in crucial situations and was squarely in Belichick’s doghouse.
Those two weeks were infuriating for fantasy managers, but they then enjoyed five-straight weeks with a rushing touchdown until an injury kept Harris out of the game versus Cleveland. Harris’ sporadic snap shares dropped steeply after that, only salvaging decent fantasy outputs with rushing touchdowns against the Titans and Bills.
He missed another game against the Colts after the New England bye before his epic blizzard romp at Foxborough against Buffalo. Weeks 17 and 18 resulted in three more touchdowns, albeit on 20 carries and a paltry 3.5 yards per carry.
As the 2021 season progressed, so did Stevenson’s role in the offense. Although not a blazing fast runner himself, the Oklahoma tailback offered plenty of big-play punch that drew praise from his legendary coach. Harris will still have a role in New England, but his stranglehold on the goal line work has loosened considerably with Stevenson’s emergence as a viable weapon. Without any receiving chops to speak of, Harris is a long shot to crack the top-24 RBs in PPR formats. That is unless Mother Nature dials up more blizzards.
I was hasty to admit my wrongness on Conner last season. I thought he was washed; beaten down from a cascade of nagging injuries and running behind a terrible Steelers offensive line. Conner was rejuvenated at the beginning of 2021 and paced a surprisingly-balanced Cardinals offense that could score on any defense. Conner combined for 18 touchdowns last year. I doubt he will score even half that amount in 2022.
The wheels fell off in the fantasy football playoffs for Conner. He most definitely carried a lot of rosters to the playoffs, but dashed their hopes when the injury bug returned to put the cancer survivor from Pittsburgh back on the shelf in Week 15. That week also marked the healthy return of explosive back Chase Edmonds to the starting lineup and he ended up becoming the flex spot hero that won some fantasy championships with 46 points in Weeks 16 and 17 combined.
Edmonds has moved on to join the Miami Dolphins, but Arizona has not lost sight of the truth around James Conner. He simply has not held up over a full season with a bell cow workload. Even his 2018 breakout season, where he finished as RB7, he compiled 286 touches over only 13 games and was redeemed by 55 receptions for 497 yards in addition to his 13 touchdowns. Arizona signed perennial touchdown vulture Darrel Williams to share the backfield with Conner in 2022 and to me, that signals the end of Conner’s unhealthy amount of work. The Cardinals also have Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward on the depth chart who could step in and shoulder some work if pressed into duty like last year.
James Conner is a bruising, talented runner with good blocking and receiving chops to boot. It is rare to have such a well-rounded skill set in an RB and try to limit his snaps, but the Cardinals now have seen what happens when you leave the starting pitcher in for too many innings. Yet another of the dying breed of bell cow backs will succumb to the committee approach in 2022, leaving fantasy managers wondering where all the Conner touchdowns went.
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Speaking of committees, I fear that the arrival of new head coach Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas spells doom for another Alabama running back. It could be that Bill Belichick was the reason why New England was constantly trotting out different running backs as the feature of the weekly game plans, but the Raiders have made some offseason moves that indicate that McDaniels has no interest in putting the ball in Jacobs’ hands 271 times like in 2021.
Josh Jacobs has been one of the most underappreciated and consistent fantasy RBs in the NFL over the past two seasons, finishing as a top-12 option both years. Still only 24 years of age, he has found the end zone a proportionate amount of times to his total rushing attempts, despite barely averaging over 4.0 yards per carry. Jacobs still only had 217 rushing attempts in 2021, a career low despite his supposed tandem back Kenyan Drake only appearing in 12 games. Drake is back in Raiders camp this year and is joined by exciting rookie Zamir White from Georgia. White has a checkered injury history with multiple ACL surgeries on his chart, but was instrumental in the Bulldogs’ charge to the national championship last season.
McDaniels has also brought in receiving back and special teams ace Brandon Bolden, who was quite effective for the Patriots last season as a member of the platoon. All signs are pointing to a further reduction in Jacobs’ workload, especially in the receiving department. His 54 receptions were fifth-most among RBs in 2021, which is somewhat misleading because Jacobs only averaged 6.44 yards per reception and still has yet to record a receiving touchdown in his career. Jacobs’ season high game in receiving yards was 46 in Week 14.
Josh Jacobs’ fantasy value is hinged completely on commanding the bulk of the carries, especially at the goal line. He might very well carry that designation into certain weeks in 2022, but the McDaniels offense will attempt to remain unpredictable about which of these RBs is the focal point. The frustration that has been associated with Patriots ball carriers over the years in fantasy football has infected yet another backfield. I’m afraid that Allegiant Stadium will become Foxborough West, where a good football team utterly drives fantasy managers into lunacy.
The adage “follow the money” is anything but absolute. In the case of Melvin Gordon in Denver, it paints a picture of a changing in the guard. 2021 was a magical season for the Broncos running game. Prodigious rookie Javonte Williams split the carries right down the middle with MGIII. Williams was more explosive than many could even imagine, appearing at the top of yards created and tackle avoidance metrics as a youngster from North Carolina. He also turned out to be a fountain of youth for then-28-year-old Gordon, whose fantasy output didn’t suffer from the reduced workload.
The former Wisconsin Badger veteran carried the ball over 200 times and threw in 28 receptions last season in an offense straight from the stone age. The quarterback play and coaching were abysmal, but the running game was humming and keeping Denver in contention for much longer than they probably should have been. Williams had the exact same amount of rushing attempts as Gordon at the end of the season and also surpassed 900 rushing yards, but was more involved in the passing game and saw his touches per game increase throughout the second half of the season.
Gordon’s one-year contract this season created a lot of dismay for those of us who were excited to see Javonte Williams unleashed going forward, but the contract was signed well after free agency. The incentive-laden deal is on par for a depth piece or insurance policy more than an RB who is likely to see another 250 touches. In today’s game of RB-by-committee, even a reduction to 30-40% of the touches for Gordon would all but preclude him from scoring 10 touchdowns in 2022 to match last season. My projection is in the neighborhood of 325 for Williams and 175 for Gordon. MGIII still has gas in the tank, but this marks the beginning of his twilight years. It is Javonte SZN, after all.
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