One of the most attractive parts of Devy for me is getting the opportunity to “call shots” on players and getting the opportunity to watch them break out in-season.
Since football is beginning to hum back to life, I wanted to break down my top-10 risers for the 2022 season. When I think of what a riser is, I think of someone who will outperform my expectation of them this season and beyond, which is how I selected these players. The players are ranked one to 10 based on my confidence that they will rise this year. While I believe in all of these players, I am simply more confident in certain ones, which is why I chose to rank them this way.
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No. 1: Jermaine Burton (WR – Alabama) | 2023
I wrote a more in-depth look into Jermaine Burton here, but I will keep this brief for this article. Burton is a recent transfer, leaving Georgia after two years to join Alabama. The unspoken reason that motivated Burton here is that he knows Alabama is his best chance to increase his draft stock significantly before the 2023 NFL draft.
Much like Jameson Williams before him, Georgia was not going to give Burton the opportunities necessary to attempt to reach his production ceiling. Burton is coming into a wide receiver room without a single entrenched starter. Burton, Ja’Corey Brooks and Jojo Earle project to be the starting wide receivers.
My confidence in Burton stems from a trio of factors. The first is that he possesses the requisite size to be an alpha wide receiver. Second, he broke out as a sophomore on a team who rebranded what being run-heavy meant. In 2021 Georgia had 406 pass attempts to Alabama’s 571.
Lastly, Burton improved his efficiency metrics from his freshman to his sophomore season. The bottom line is Burton’s profile tells me he is talented enough for the NFL. He’s walking into an offense with 338 vacated targets operated by Bryce Young and Nick Saban; who doesn’t love that?
No. 2: Raheim “Rocket” Sanders (RB – Arkansas) | 2023
Sometimes having a flashy nickname often backfires. In this case, Raheim “Rocket” Sanders fits him like a glove. Rocket entered Arkansas with the size I love seeing in my running backs, registering at 6-2 and 225-pounds. He shared the backfield with Dominque Johnson and AJ Green. He only managed to finish the season with a backfield dominator rating of 31.8. Despite the low workload, Rocket finished the season with 687 total yards and six touchdowns.
From a metric standpoint, Rocket stands out more. He registered a ‘technical’ breakout with a dominator rating of 16.6 (my personal threshold is above 20). He also had a per team attempt of 1.67, which is great for a freshman and impressive considering his low backfield dominator rating. Usually, when a player only gets one-third of the opportunities, their efficiency metric suffers because they don’t have as many opportunities to create production for the team.
Rocket took the bulk of the first-team reps during spring practice because Johnson needed surgery in the offseason. Head coach Sam Pittman was quoted praising Sanders’s quicker decision-making, something he struggled with due to being a multi-position high school athlete. With the majority of the workload projecting to be Rocket’s, his blend of athleticism and size makes him a clear riser for me.
No. 3: Parker Washington (WR – Penn State) | 2023
Parker Washington has been someone I have been monitoring closely since his freshman year and actively acquiring him on all of my Devy teams. Washington came into college with great size for a wide receiver. He stands 5-10 and 201-pounds. Washington didn’t hesitate to get involved his freshman year, breaking out in a major way with a dominator rating of 28.2.
His average target share and receiving yard share of 21.2-percent and 22.3-percent are noticeable, especially playing with first-round talent in Jahan Dotson. Washington saw a dip in Dominator ratings from 2020 to 2021. Yet, looking at his weighted dominator, the dip was much less significant. What excites me the most for Washington is his yards per team-pass attempt career average; 1.8. He is currently meeting thresholds that project him to be a valuable fantasy wide receiver.
While the first two years Washington dominated out of the slot, he figures to get the opportunity to dominate out wide with the departure of Dotson. What is most exciting for me is that his coach James Franklin had this to say about him: “really good ball skills, good body control, really intelligent guy… I think he’s going to have a big year for us.”
Washington currently projects as a tier two wide receiver, but with a big year on the horizon, it is easy to see why Washington is a Riser for me.
No. 4: Devin Neal (RB – Kansas) | 2024
I am not sure what caught my eye first with Devin Neal, his fantastic size, or his athleticism (click here for the video that started my love with him). Neal came into college at 5-10 and 210 pounds, but he is already closer to 218 pounds moving into his Sophomore season.
Neal didn’t begin as the starter, but after week 4, he had under 15 carries only twice. His usage for a freshman is even more enticing, registering a backfield dominator of 61.8. What Neal was able to do with it was even more remarkable, as he finished with 764 total yards and nine total touchdowns.
As a freshman breakout, his chances for success improve dramatically. He had a dominator rating of 23.8 in 2021. Neal also was hampered by an injury suffered during the season, which limited his production. He also is very new at the running back position, recently converting there later in high school. Neal has had a year in the college offseason program to learn how to be a better running back and regain his health. With a choke hold on the starting job, Neal projects to establish his name on the national stage with this upcoming season.
No. 5: Adonai Mitchell (WR – Georgia) | 2024
Similar to Burton, you can read about Mitchell more in-depth here. Mitchell, coming into his sophomore season, quietly broke out as a freshman. Standing at 6-3 and 190-pounds, Mitchell ended his freshman season with a dominator rating of 20.5 and 20.4-percent of Georgia’s receiving yards.
What also gives me confidence in Mitchell is his efficiency. His yards per team pass attempt of 1.38 were 64th-percentile. That leads me to believe that Mitchell has the opportunity to reach a high ceiling. His most significant current barrier was his 17-percent drop rate. With Burton leaving, Mitchell slots into the Alpha role in the wide receiver room and predominately shares the target pie with Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert. With an entire offseason under his belt, and if Mitchell can improve his catch rate, I expect a significant rise.
No. 6: Donovan Edwards (RB – Michigan) | 2024
Jim Harbaugh is more than khakis, glasses and awkward facial expressions. He has created a running back room in Michigan that creates opportunities for them. With Hassan Haskins leaving for the NFL, Donovan Edwards projects splitting the carries with Blake Corum. As a freshman, Edwards was not projected to see many touches due to the tandem of Haskins and Corum. Coming in at 6-0 and 202-pounds, Edwards will see a lot more opportunity than he did as a freshman.
Having a backfield dominator rating of 22.3 means his analytics aren’t going to be valuable to view. Yet, one thing stood out. As a freshman, Edwards saw a target share of 6.6 percent and was responsible for 8.3 percent of Michigan’s receiving yards. A target share that high off of such limited opportunity shows what Michigan intends to do with him.
Corum and Edwards are both dual threats when on the field, which means that Edwards will get a hefty jump in touches this 2022 season. Edwards’s dynamic abilities forced the coaching staff to involve him as a freshman. Now being given a much larger opportunity, all he needs to do is capitalize, and the value rise will grow large.
No. 7: Arik Gilbert (TE – Georgia) | 2023
Arik Gilbert could technically be a sleeper or a riser. Gilbert went through the gauntlet in 2020 and 2021. After playing eight games with LSU in 2020, he transferred to Georgia to sit out the 2021 season for personal reasons. Coming in as a freshman, Gilbert was widely viewed as the most athletic tight end to enter college, often compared to Kyle Pitts. The talent is apparent.
In his eight games, he turned 35 receptions into 385 yards and two touchdowns. The issue with Devy gamers is that people have been cautious due to the last two years’ escapades. The missing point is that the talent was never questioned and still isn’t. Getting spring and fall snaps has been crucial to restarting his path to the NFL. Only fighting for targets between Brock Bowers and Adonai Mitchell, Gilbert projects into a valuable opportunity share that will inevitably raise his value.
No. 8: Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College) | 2023
What was once a hot name heading into the 2021 season quickly got derailed once his starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec missed significant time to injury. Traditionally, I fade most players that return for their senior year in college. Zay Flowers may be my exception next year, with good size at 5-11 and 177 pounds and a sophomore breakout under his belt.
Flowers projects to be a riser, especially since his ‘fall’ was not due to him but his quarterback situation. Flowers has a career average dominator rating of 28.2, and he also has shown improvement each year despite the circumstances. His career average for target share and receiving yard share is 21.2-percent and 25.9-percent. His efficiency is also impressive, with an average of 2.00 yards per team pass attempt and a high of 2.46. His metrics are outstanding. With Jurkovec healthy, Flowers projects to see a ‘resurgence’ in his value and draft capital.
No. 9: Isaiah Neyor (WR – Texas) | 2023
Isaiah Neyor, standing tall at 6-3 and 210-pounds, spent his first two years at Wyoming. Neyor set the world on fire his sophomore season registering a breakout with a dominator rating of 60. Neyor was responsible for 40 percent of the teams receiving yards and 80 percent of Wyoming’s passing touchdowns. Neyor posted a 2.95 yards per pass attempt, which is near elite if it was a Power 5 conference.
Neyor made a business decision, transferring out of Wyoming to join what is becoming a colossal offense at Texas. Neyor possesses the size of an alpha wide receiver and has the metrics to back it up. Making the transition into a more competitive division will set Neyor up if he can deliver. The Texas wide receiver room has their alpha in Xavier Worthy, but that does not mean Neyor won’t be able to carve out a sizeable chunk of this offense. Neyor projects to continue his tear from 2021 into 2022. He will fly up the receiver ranks if he can replicate 80 percent of last season’s production.
No. 10: Isreal Abandikanda (RB – Pittsburgh) | 2023
Isreal Abandikanda has shown improvement and flashes since he was a freshman at Pittsburgh. Abandikanda comes equipped with NFL size at 5-11 and 215-pounds. The barrier for him thus far has been opportunity. His best backfield dominator rating was in 2021, where he finished at 39.9. Like Rocket, despite the lower workload, Abandikanda continued to impress, totaling 848 total yards and eight touchdowns last year. He also registered an 8.65-percent target share in 2021, while having an 8.2 yards per reception.
This spring Abandikanda was named in the 2022 Hornung Award Preseason Watchlist. This award goes to the player who symbolizes versatility. Despite not having a bell-cow role with Pittsburgh, the offense figures to run more due to losing Kenny Pickett to the draft and Jordan Addison to the transfer portal. Abandikanda will share the running back duties. Still, with the projected opportunities of the Panthers’ rushing attack paired with his athleticism, it’s the perfect window to showcase his abilities to the NFL.
Targeting these players in your mid-to-late rounds in your Devy draft is one of the best ways to gain an edge in your league. There will be other value risers this year, but I feel strongly that these 10 players mentioned will most certainly be viewed higher than they currently are next year.
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