Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 1 (2022 Fantasy Football)

It’s here! Football season is finally upon us once again! If you’re like me, you skipped taking a defense in your drafts, or just took whoever in the last round if the league host made you. Now, it’s time to start thinking about Week 1, and that means picking up a defense.

Wait, what? Picking up a defense right after the draft? That’s right, this series is all about streaming defenses as plan A. For other positions, streaming is what you do when your quarterback is on bye, or your tight end is on paternity leave. For defenses, streaming is a way of life. There are a few facts that inform this approach:

• When predicting a defense’s fantasy performance, who the defense is – the talent of the actual players – basically doesn’t matter at all. Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns make up a huge chunk of fantasy DST scoring, and the offense has a much bigger influence on those things than the defense does.
• Vegas provides us with the best points allowed projections possible. For the uninitiated, two of the most common ways to bet on NFL games is via the total and the spread. For totals, the book will set a line for the combined score for both teams, and you bet on if the actual total will be above or below that line. This means the full weight of a multi-billion dollar industry is invested in making those lines good projections. Similarly, when betting a spread, the book will give a projected margin of victory, and you would bet on if the actual margin of victory is above or below that. Combining these lines allows us to derive a very good projection for the points scored for each team.
• Sacks are a big part of fantasy DST scoring, and the main factor for predicting sacks is who the offense is. Good pass-rushers are fun to watch, but the thing that actually causes sacks is a porous offensive line, and even more importantly, a quarterback who doesn’t get rid of the ball quickly enough.
• Interceptions are entirely a product of who the quarterback is. A star corner might create a turnover with an excellent catch once in a while, but on a statistical level, interceptions happen because quarterbacks throw them.
• There are two main factors that predict fumbles – the number of sacks the quarterback takes, and the teams rush-to-pass ratio. Fumbles are very rare on rushing plays – it’s kind of the running back’s whole job to hold on to the ball. Half of all fumbles happen on sacks, and a large chunk of the rest happen on completed passes. As a result, the more pass plays the offense draws up, the more often they fumble.
• Defensive touchdowns are basically random. More turnovers means more chances for a TD, but they turn into touchdowns at a very low rate, and a typical NFL game only has a few turnovers. You will rarely see a TD projection above 0.12 or below 0.07 in my rankings.

That was a lot of preamble – let’s get to the actual rankings!

Week 1 DST Projections

Week 1 of the season is a mixed bag for defenses. The confidence of our predictions is at a low point, because last year’s data can only tell us so much about how players will do this year. We will gradually get more confident throughout the season, as we learn who this year’s teams really are. On the upside, many people draft defenses based on their season-long outlook, meaning there are some teams with excellent Week 1 matchups that didn’t get drafted much. There are of course no bye weeks yet, which also helps the number of viable defenses. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

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Matchups

1. SF @ CHI: Justin Fields in his sophomore season is an exciting player, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a good target for fantasy DSTs. He is top-tier when it comes to taking sacks. A sack projection of 3 or higher can make up for other weaknesses in a defense’s outlook, but the 49ers don’t need it. With a projected points allowed of just 17 – the lowest of the week – everything points San Francisco being a great play.
2. DEN @ SEA: It will be fun to see the Broncos and Seahawks face off in Week 1 after trading quarterbacks, but unfortunately Drew Lock isn’t even starting for Seattle. Geno Smith is not bad as career backup QBs go, but he’s still a career backup. Denver is an easy play this week.
3. TEN vs NYG: Daniel Jones is a known quantity at this point. He’s fine as a quarterback, but has a high sack rate, and a somewhat high turnover rate, that makes him a great target for opposing defenses.
4. NO @ ATL: Quarterbacks are weird. At any given time, that are 20 or so QBs who are good enough to start in the NFL, but there are 32 teams. The bottom third of the league is a revolving door of mediocrity, and one of this year’s revolution was Marcus Mariota signing a two-year contract with Atlanta. Mariota hasn’t been a starter since 2019, so my expectations for 2022 aren’t high.
5. IND @ HOU: Davis Mills ended up starting a big portion of the 2021 season for the embattled Houston Texans, who spent the year as one of the best DST targets. Mills looks to be the starter again this year, so expect to see Houston’s opponents continue to show up ranked among my starting DSTs most weeks.
6. CAR vs CLE: With Deshaun Watson suspended, the starting QB duties for the Browns’ first 11 games fall to Jacoby Brissett. Brissett is one of the better backup QBs in the league, but he’s still a backup and the Browns are still cursed. The Panthers are a solid play this week, and are very likely to be available in your league.
7. CIN vs PIT: Another moving piece in the carousel of low-end quarterbacks is Mitch Trubisky, who finds himself starting for the Steelers. Trubisky’s problem is consistency – some times he plays like a second overall pick, so he might burn you. But that’s not the expectation – he’s more likely to turn in a great performance for the opposing defense.
8. BAL @ NYJ: We don’t yet know who will start for the Jets in Week 1. The options are Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson, and it seems like Wilson is more likely. We should find out tomorrow. The Ravens will be a good start either way, but Wilson would be better news (for us). Joe Flacco isn’t a great QB, but he’s pretty good at avoiding big mistakes like interceptions.
9. PIT @ CIN: Joe Burrow is a great example of how fantasy DST scoring doesn’t model NFL performances very well. Joe Burrow is a good quarterback, but he’s a good DST target anyway because of his high sack rate. The Steelers aren’t the most exciting team, but the matchup makes them a reasonable low-end starter.
10. WAS vs JAC: Trevor Lawrence might be the next Joe Burrow – a pretty good QB who is nonetheless a reasonable DST target thanks to high sack and turnover rates.

Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.