MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (9/18)

Saturday’s slate was another successful outing, and we want to finish the season strong. The only issue is that we have limited information this far in advance. Teams are doing bizarre things with their rotations and lineups at this time of the year, making it tougher than ever to predict what we’ll see. With that said, the results are more predictable than ever because the good and bad teams continue to put more distance between one another. With that in mind, let’s get started with two pitchers in unbelievable spots.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

It’s hard to believe how much elite pitching we’ve had over the last two days. We had to omit some aces from our Saturday article, and we’ll have to do the same thing here. We didn’t have room for studs like Spencer Strider, Jeffrey Springs, Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan, and Gerrit Cole, all missing out. You’d think that’d leave us with no one, but we have two of the most reliable pitchers in baseball in the next section!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Jacob deGrom (NYM) vs. PIT

Nobody can deny that deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball when he’s healthy. The right-hander has a 2.01 ERA, and 0.59 WHIP in his eight starts this year, which is backed by his 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP from last season. He’s also got 219 strikeouts across those 141 total innings, and he should have no issues with a Pirates team that sits bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, and K rate. The oddsmakers agree, making deGrom a -450 favorite. That’s honestly one of the largest MLB lines I’ve ever seen.

Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. OAK

Valdez is the best cash game option in DFS right now. His reliability is the primary reason, entering this matchup with a quality start in 24 consecutive starts. He’s also got a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this year, scoring at least 29 FanDuel points in 22 straight. Much like Pittsburgh, Oakland also ranks bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA. Not to mention, he also enters this matchup as a -360 favorite.

GPP Recommendations:

Yu Darvish (SD) at ARI

Darvish has had the most consistent season of his career, compiling a 3.16 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He’s been even better as of late, accruing a 2.75 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 rate since May 19. It’s not like Arizona is a scary matchup, with the Diamondbacks ranked 21st in OBP and 19th in OPS. Darvish has destroyed them all year, too, donning a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in their four matchups.

Jordan Montgomery (STL) vs. CIN

It’s hard to understand why the Yankees traded this guy, but the Cardinals are reaping the benefits. The left-hander has allowed just 11 runs across his last eight starts, maintaining a 2.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in that span. That makes him tough to fade against Cincinnati, with the Reds ranked 22nd in OBP, 24th in OPS, and 27th in xwOBA. That matchup has Montgomery entering this matchup as a -280 favorite as well.

Top Lineup Stacks

New York Yankees (vs. Jason Alexander)

• Road (Miller Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/NYY -180

The Yankees have one of the most daunting lineups in baseball, and we don’t expect an actor from Seinfeld to slow him down. The Brewers righty has a disastrous 5.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in what’s turning out to be a nightmarish rookie season. Pitching in Miller Park is scary too, and it makes the Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres portion of this lineup an enticing stack.

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Luis Cessa)

• Home (Busch Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/STL -280

The Cardinals have been a Top-5 offense since the opening month, and they simply have one of the most dangerous rosters in baseball. Goldy and Arenado are at the heart, but there are plenty of dangerous ancillary pieces as well. Getting to square off with Luis Cessa is the best part, with the Reds righty allowing three homers and five runs to the Pirates in his most recent outing. Needless to say but the Cards are better than the Buccos.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Kris Bubic)

• Home (Fenway Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/BOS -190

The Sox are my favorite stack of the day. This offense is full of potent righties, but they have the best matchup on this slate. That happens to be Kris Bubic, collecting a 5.55 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this year. He’s been even worse as of late, amassing a 7.20 ERA and 1.88 WHIP across his last five starts. It’s hard to imagine it gets any better in Fenway Park, particularly against a dangerous lineup that’s projected for six runs.

Core Studs

• Relying on BvP numbers can be dangerous, but Trout has some of the best I’ve ever seen. The former MVP has a .378 AVG, .465 OBP, .703 SLG, and 1.168 OPS in 43 at-bats against Marco Gonzales. That has to worry Marco here because Trout has a .421 OBP, 1.029 SLG, and 1.450 OPS across his last nine games.
• Judge is running away with the home run crown, nearly 20 bombs higher than the player in second. That’s a good indicator of how absurd this guy has been, leading the league in runs and RBI as well. He’s been rolling coming into this matchup, collecting a .532 OBP and 1.436 OPS across his last 21 games.
• Edman has been raking in the two-hole of this Cards lineup, tallying a .354 AVG, .671 SLG, and 1.054 OPS across his last 22 games. That power stroke is not something we’ve seen much of, but it looks beautiful since he has 61 steals since the start of last season.
• It hasn’t been Xander’s best season in Boston, but a .317 AVG, .383 OBP, and .858 OPS are nothing to scoff at. It’s actually his lowest OPS since 2018, but most players would give anything for a .850 OPS. We love how Bogey is seeing the ball right now, registering a .416 AVG, .460 OBP, .688 SLG, and 1.138 OPS across his last 20 games. In addition, X has a .460 OBP and 1.012 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season.
• Altuve has returned to the All-Star player we know and love, delivering a ridiculous second half of the season. Over his last 41 games, Altuve has a .421 OBP and .948 OPS. His splits are sensational, too, sporting a .404 OBP, .659 SLG, and 1.063 OPS against left-handers. We don’t anticipate a rookie with a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP getting through this lineup cleanly.

Value Plays/Punts

• Choi is always one of the best punt plays when the Rays face a righty. The first baseman has had a down year by his standards, but a .344 OBP and .771 OPS for his career is nothing to be embarrassed by. We love his splits, totaling a .799 OPS against righties since his rookie season. Glenn Otto is an outstanding matchup as well, obtaining a 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
• Vinnie was one of the best hitters in Triple-A, and he’s flashing that upside recently. Over his last 22 games, Pasquantino has a .315 AVG, .395 OBP, and .957 OPS. He has an even higher ceiling than that, tallying a .392 OBP, .569 SLG, and .951 OPS throughout his minor league career.
• Vogelbach always bats in the heart of the Mets order against righties, and it’s hard to understand why these DFS sites keep him so cheap. The righty masher has a .371 OBP and .864 OPS against right-handers this year. That alone makes him an immense value, and he shouldn’t have any issues against a pitcher with a 4.57 career ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
• It looks like Pham will lead off for this Boston team for the remainder of the season, posting some of the best hard-hit metrics in the sport. Getting a leadoff hitter for one of the highest-projected lineups is enough reason to use Pham, but we also adore his .825 OPS against southpaws this season.
• This Dickerson pricing has been some of the most egregious in DFS. This guy has always killed right-handers throughout his career, flirting with a .300 AVG and .850 OPS against them. That’s horrifying with how he’s swinging the bat, producing a .421 AVG and 1.021 OPS across his last 21 games. If you want to stack the Cards, Corey is the best cheap option of the bunch!

Hitter Strategy

We have dominant pitching for the second straight day. That means you can go any route on that end, but we need to save some salary at the hitting positions. The most affordable stack that we didn’t mention is Tampa Bay, and that offense should pair beautifully with the Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, and Yankees. Some other offenses that we like include the Mets, Braves, Marlins, Blue Jays, Twins, and Astros. There’s plenty to pick from among those teams, and it’ll become even easier when these strange Sunday lineups get released.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.