Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
Teams projected for high Week 13 snap counts
Los Angeles Chargers
Though they don’t look like the most polished team in the league, the Chargers do continue to dominate in pace stats. Their efficiency leaves much to be desired (38.1 CER), but they will likely see an increase in efficiency this week due to a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas currently ranks dead last in DVOA and 29th in EPA/play allowed. This is a truly terrible defense that even the Chargers’ mediocre offense should be able to exploit.
Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
Teams projected for high Week 13 snap counts
Los Angeles Chargers
Though they don’t look like the most polished team in the league, the Chargers do continue to dominate in pace stats. Their efficiency leaves much to be desired (38.1 CER), but they will likely see an increase in efficiency this week due to a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas currently ranks dead last in DVOA and 29th in EPA/play allowed. This is a truly terrible defense that even the Chargers’ mediocre offense should be able to exploit.
Kansas City Chiefs/Cincinnati Bengals
With a lot of the top teams in my table facing strong defenses, the other two teams I think will run a high number of snaps happen to be playing each other. First, the case for Kansas City. The Chiefs still lead the league in CER at 98.0, while also ranking third in seconds/snap and seventh in snaps/60 minutes. While the Bengals’ defense is solid, they still rank outside of the top 10 teams in defensive DVOA and EPA/play allowed. The Chiefs can play their game in this contest, a game that results in a large number of plays ran.
Now, the case for Cincinnati. The Bengals are starting to come into their own, now ranking seventh in CER, while also running a decent pace. They are slight underdogs at home to the Chiefs, meaning they will likely be playing in somewhat of a negative game script, leading to a faster pace. Cincinnati is also fortunate that Kansas City’s defense does not pose a huge threat, ranking just below the league average in both defensive DVOA and EPA/play allowed. All of this leads me to believe this game will be a shootout, providing plenty of plays run by both teams.
Teams projected for low Week 13 snap counts
Miami Dolphins
Miami has a good offense, yes. But they don’t play with great pace. They rank around the league average in both pace stats on the table, but I could see an additional struggle this week against the 49ers. San Francisco is getting hot at the right time, and their defense now ranks first in yards/play allowed and fifth in defensive DVOA. Also, if you want to play into the narrative stuff, Dolphins’ HC Mike McDaniel was hired from Shanahan’s 49er coaching staff this past offseason, so if there’s any coach in the NFL who could stall the Miami Dolphins’ offense, It’s Kyle Shanahan. Miami could perform well still, but I doubt it will be on the back of volume.
New England Patriots
It appears the Patriots have two good running backs, which is fine and good, but they still don’t have a great QB. This has resulted in a 29.5 CER, and when paired with a pace below the league average, you get an uninspiring offense. They have a particularly tough matchup against an excellent Bills defense. The Bills’ offense might have some problems against New England’s tough defensive unit, but either way, I don’t see how New England’s offense does well in this game, either in terms of pace or efficiency.
Indianapolis Colts
The expectations for the Colts have been low recently, but they seem to still disappoint. If they could only manage to score 17 points on 62 plays against the Pittsburgh Steelers, they are in for a world of hurt against the Dallas Cowboys. The Colts, armed with their 8.9 CER are simply no match for a Dallas defense that ranks first in defensive DVOA and second in EPA/play allowed. This game is shaping up to be a dull one under the bright lights on Sunday Night Football.
Noteworthy Trends
- The number one story that I will be following on Sunday (along with the rest of the NFL world) is the reinstation of and the first start as a Brown for Deshaun Watson. As I've talked about previously, Cleveland's offense is fine. They've managed a 69.9 CER under Brissett so far, and while I think it will almost certainly improve under Watson, but by how much will it improve? Their defense has a lot more room to improve but they aren't suddenly adding a superstar to their unit, unlike the offense. The Browns, at 4-7, aren't yet drawing dead to make the playoffs, but they need to rattle off a lot of victories even to make it in as the seventh seed. I have my doubts about this feat materializing, but as in most cases of uncertainty, only time will tell.
- There have to be few teams feeling as good about themselves right now as the Seahawks. I, like many other analysts and fans, predicted them to be among the worst teams in the league. Yet, they own fifth highest CER in the league and are just one game behind the 49ers for the lead in the NFC West. This is all without (former) superstar QB Russell Wilson, who they turned into a large package of players and picks that currently includes the projected #4 overall pick. Perhaps the greatest surprise of all is the play of Geno Smith. Seattle certainly has a lot to be thankful for, and its fan base has one of the most powerful forces in the universe at its side: hope.
*Data from the table comes from as follows: Pro Football Reference, Team Rankings, Football Outsiders, RBSDM.com
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
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