Sunday’s three-game slate at DraftKings and FanDuel is the largest of the three main slates for Super Wild Card weekend. However, the bookend contests are projected to be uncompetitive. Nevertheless, there are intriguing options in both contests and a likely tightly contested game in between. Gamers must fade some studs, and using a few bargain options is inviting to jam an extra stud into lineups. The following matchups will help gamers make the challenging lineup decisions needed on Sunday’s three-game slate.
NFL DFS Sunday Wild Card Matchups
Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -13.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa is out, and the Dolphins are preparing for Skylar Thompson to start. The rookie seventh-round pick started two games, and the Dolphins scored 16 and 11 points in those contests. Miami’s offense was lackluster without Tagovailoa this year. So, even on a small slate, they’re not an exciting source of DFS options, especially considering the high salaries for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Thus, gamers can fade them.
Bills Analysis: The Bills have the highest implied total on Sunday's main slate, hence their significant representation on the table above. Buffalo's offense is Josh Allen-centric and pass-heavy.
According to numberFire, the Bills have attempted 166 passes, 35 rushes (excluding one kneel) by Allen and 85 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 12. The game's spread indicates this will probably be a blowout. Fortunately for Allen's outlook, the Bills don't take their foot off the accelerator. They've had a balanced offensive attack when leading by at least eight points in their last seven games, attempting 37 passes and 39 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
In addition, it's best to attack Miami through the air. According to Football Outsiders, they're first in rush defense DVOA and 15th in pass defense DVOA since Week 12. Therefore, teams have aired it out against Miami's stout run defense. The Dolphins' last seven opponents have attempted 218 passes and just 119 rushes by non-quarterbacks in a neutral game script. In an admittedly small sample, they've also passed 11 times and rushed just six times by non-quarterbacks when leading by eight points in those contests.
Allen gutted the Dolphins like fish in Buffalo in Week 15, passing for 304 yards and four touchdowns and rushing for 77 yards. He wasn't as sharp in windy and cold conditions in Chicago in Week 16 but shredded the Patriots last week, passing for 254 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Allen is projected as the QB1 on Sunday's main slate, has the QB1 value score (QB1V) and is projected as the highest overall scorer.
Stefon Diggs is the only constant in Buffalo's passing game. He's Allen's favorite option and led the team in receptions per game (6.8), receiving yards per game (89.3) and receiving touchdowns (11). Diggs' final touchdown of the regular season was a deep dart from Allen.
Diggs has the highest floor and ceiling of Buffalo's pass catchers and is the WR2 and has the WR3V at DK, and is the WR3 and has the WR2V at FD.
Gabe Davis was inefficient last week. Further, he dropped a dime in the end zone, perfectly encapsulating his underachievement this year. Nevertheless, Davis is a big-play threat who's exploded before. The third-year pro barbecued the Steelers for three receptions, 171 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5, had three receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 6, rattled off six receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings in Week 10 and memorably got the fantasy community hot and bothered by amassing eight receptions, 201 receiving yards and four touchdowns in last season's Divisional Round loss against the Chiefs. Davis's floor is low, but his ceiling outcome is tournament-winning caliber.
Dawson Knox is arguably the most desirable stacking option with Allen, salary considered. He's also an outstanding one-off pick as exposure to Buffalo's juicy implied total. Knox had a touchdown in four consecutive games to close the regular season. Moreover, he had his best game of the year against the Dolphins in Week 15, converting eight targets into six receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, Miami's allowed the ninth-most DK and the eighth-most FD points per game to tight ends since Week 12. So, their struggle when defending Knox wasn't an isolated incident. Thus, Knox is projected as the TE3 at DK and the TE1 at FD, boasting the TE1V at both providers.
Isaiah McKenzie hurt his hamstring in practice on Wednesday and didn't participate in practice on Thursday.
McKenzie downplayed the significance of the injury. However, players often voice optimism regarding their injuries, and the Bills signed Cole Beasley to the active roster, perhaps, indicating they aren't confident in McKenzie's availability this week.
So, Beasley is the correct bargain wideout choice if McKenzie is inactive, right? That's not necessarily correct. Beasley was active in Week 15 and Week 16. Yet, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran only 10 routes, and Khalil Shakir ran 20. The rookie wideout also ran one more route (eight) than Beasley (seven) in Week 15 against the Dolphins.
Additionally, Shakir might have more in the tank at this point in their respective careers. Finally, Shakir has some contingency value as more than a slot-only wideout. According to PFF, Shakir's aligned in the slot on 58.3% of his passing snaps and lined up wide at a 41.7% clip. Shakir's a risky pick, but he should be contrarian. Finding palatable low-rostered players on a small slate is tricky, but Shakir fits the bill.
James Cook was rarely involved in Buffalo's offense earlier this year. Yet, he's earned the coaching staff's trust and carved out a meaningful role in their backfield. The rookie is a more dynamic and better pass-catching option than backfield mate Devin Singletary. Cook was targeted on 19 of 80 routes in Buffalo's final six regular season games and had 14 receptions, 84 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
The touchdown was corraled as time expired in the first half against the Dolphins in Week 15. Moreover, the Dolphins haven't been great shakes when defending running backs in the passing attack lately. Since Week 12, they've yielded the third-most receptions and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to the position. As a result, Cook's skill set is a great matchup fit, and he's projected as the RB4, with the RB2V at DK, and projects as the RB5 and has a matching RB5V at FD.
Game: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants rested their starters in a meaningless Week 18 contest. So, their workhorse back, Saquon Barkley, should be fresh and prepared to handle bell cow duties. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Barkley handled more than 20 touches per game (3.6 receptions) and had more than 100 scrimmage yards per game while splashing paydirt 10 times.
Big Blue's electrifying running back was a yeoman in Week 16 against the Vikings, rumbling for 84 rushing yards and a touchdown and converting 10 targets into eight receptions and 49 receiving yards. The matchup is good for another big showing this week. Since Week 12, the Vikings have been 22nd in rush defense DVOA. There are a handful of talented running backs on Sunday's main slate, but Barkley's projected as the RB1 in DFS and has the RB3V at both providers.
Minnesota's pass defense has struggled mightily down the stretch as well. They're 28th in pass defense DVOA since Week 12. Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James can pick apart Minnesota's leaky secondary.
Hodgins is primarily a touchdown-chasing choice. The big-bodied wideout began the year with the Bills before debuting for the Giants in Week 10. Since making his first appearance for the Giants, he's caught four touchdowns in the red zone. Hodgins scored in four of his last five games in the regular season and had at least four receptions in each of those games. Yet he did his best work against the Vikings, trouncing them for eight receptions, 89 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets.
Despite Hodgins' stellar showing against the Vikings a few weeks ago, James has the more inviting matchup. The Vikings have yielded the most DK and FD points per game to slot receivers since Week 12. James had at least three receptions in his last seven games of the regular season, bested 40 receiving yards six times and reached the end zone four times during that seven-game stretch. He didn't score against the Vikings the first time, but he had eight receptions and 90 yards on 11 targets. As a result, James is one of the most tantalizing value picks on Sunday's slate, especially at DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform.
Vikings Analysis: The Vikings aren't a flawless team. Still, their offense can light up the scoreboard in good matchups. The Giants qualify as a good matchup since they're 31st in rush defense DVOA and 17th in pass defense DVOA since Week 12.
Kirk Cousins had a field day in the first matchup, passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns on a tasty 70.83% completion rate. Cousins has also thrived at home in the past three years. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's passed for 55 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and averaged 271.12 passing yards per game in 25 home games since 2020. Cousins doesn't bring the rushing component to the table Allen possesses, but the veteran pocket passer is a desirable pivot at a significant discount.
Justin Jefferson is in a smash spot against a defense he previously terrorized for 12 receptions, 133 receiving yards and one touchdown on 16 targets. The third-year wideout averaged 8.1 receptions and 102.6 receiving yards per game at home and scored six touchdowns. Jefferson is matchup-proof. Nonetheless, the matchup is excellent. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 12, and Jefferson aligned wide on 70.3% of his passing snaps during that timeframe. The stud wideout is an awesome pick at either DFS site, projecting as the WR1 at DK and the WR2 at FD.
T.J. Hockenson adjusted seamlessly to Minnesota's offense after they acquired him in a trade. He averaged 6.0 receptions and 51.9 receiving yards per game for the Vikings, sprinkling in three touchdowns for good measure. The talented tight end made his mark in the first contest against the Giants, reeling in 13 receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns on 16 targets.
Obviously, his numbers in the first matchup against the G-Men spoke for themselves. However, the matchup is good after further scrutiny. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most DK and tied for the sixth-most FD points permitted per game to tight ends since Week 12. They've been especially bad against inline tight ends, allowing the fourth-most DK and the third-most FD points per game to them during that stretch. Meanwhile, per PFF, Hockenson was aligned inline on 52.8% of his passing snaps since Week 12.
The matchup against Big Blue is also a plus for Minnesota's second tight end, Irv Smith. He returned from the IR last week and aligned inline for 83.3% of his passing snaps. Smith also opened the game as a starter in Week 18 since the Vikings used two tight ends on their first offensive play. Might the Vikings exploit Big Blue's struggles against tight ends by ramping up their two-tight-end personnel? Maybe. Smith could also pan out as a punt by reaching paydirt against a defense that allowed four touchdowns to the position in their final seven games. Obviously, Smith's floor is zero points as a backup tight end. Yet, there's a case for using him as a contrarian punt in tournaments on this three-game slate.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -8.5 Points
Over/Under: CIN 40.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens aren't likely to put up much of a fight without Lamar Jackson, whether it's Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown starting at quarterback. Fading Baltimore entirely in DFS this week is reasonable. Further, gamers should take Isaiah Likely's performance against Cincinnati in Week 18 with a grain of salt since Mark Andrews was rested.
Still, Likely had eight receptions for 103 yards last week. The Ravens are also in dire need of passing-game weapons behind Andrews. Finally, the matchup is good. The Bengals have allowed the eighth-most DK and the 12th-most FD points per game to tight ends since Week 12. They've been more giving to tight ends aligned in the slot than inline, tying for the fifth-most DK and the seventh-most FD points allowed per game to them. They've also allowed the 11th-most DK and tied for the 12th-most FD points per game coughed up to slot wide receivers. Since Week 12, Likely's played 56.4% of his passing snaps in the slot. So, whether he's viewed as a tight end in the slot or a jumbo wideout, the matchup is good. The rookie is by no means a must-use option, but he's a defensible value pick.
The Ravens will likely be beaten handily, but their feisty defense is a useful value pick on a slate lacking intriguing cap-friendly defenses. Baltimore had two sacks and forced one turnover against the Bengals in Week 18. The Bengals are also without talented injured guard Alex Cappa, and they're still adjusting to a season-ending injury suffered by starting tackle La'el Collins in Week 16. Will the injuries lead to a few lapses that result in sacks? Possibly.
Bengals Analysis: Gamers aren't crazy if they use Joe Burrow. He's an exceptionally talented passer and has a sky-high ceiling. However, the injuries along the offensive line are reasons for pause, and gamers can instead get exposure to the passing attack through some of his weapons.
Ja'Marr Chase is a monster. Since he returned from his hip injury in Week 13, he's had a 25.2% Target Share on Burrow's passes and converted them into 8.0 receptions per game, 88.2 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns. The second-year wideout has also toyed with the Ravens in four matchups in his career, averaging 7.5 receptions and 115.5 receiving yards per game and scoring two touchdowns. He had eight receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown last week.
The big-play perimeter wideout has a good matchup and a sweet projection this week. First, the Ravens have allowed the 11th-most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12. Second, Chase is the WR3 and has the WR4V at DK, and he's the WR1 and has the WR1V at FD.
Tyler Boyd is the tertiary weapon in Cincinnati's passing attack headlined by Chase and Tee Higgins. Fortunately, the Ravens are 21st in pass defense DVOA since Week 12. Moreover, the Bengals have attempted 137 passes and only 71 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their last six games. They also haven't slowed down when leading by at least eight points, attempting 85 passes and 43 rushes by non-quarterbacks in that span. Thus, there's enough meat on the bone for Boyd to get his.
The matchup is brutal for Joe Mixon. The Ravens are second in rush defense DVOA since Week 12. Still, the Bengals are big favorites, and the game script should be ideal for him as a result. Mixon has also been efficient when protecting a big lead. He's carried the ball 27 times for 133 yards when the Bengals led by at least eight points in their last six games.
Additionally, Mixon can score points through the air. He's had five, seven and five receptions for 33, 43 and 41 yards in his previous three games. The matchup is also more inviting through the air for him than on the ground. Since Week 12, the Ravens have coughed up the 13th-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Mixon is the RB2 in DFS this week and has the RB1V at both outlets.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
