The Chiefs and Eagles will put a bow on the 2022 NFL season in an evenly-matched Super Bowl contest. There’s star power galore between the two teams. Yet, gamers will need to open up some cap space for the studs. Thankfully, there are a few enticing value picks.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Kansas City has received positive contributions from Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Yet, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was activated from the Injured Reserve, and the Chiefs are a pass-happy offense. So, investing in Kansas City's passing attack is more enticing than taking stabs at a potentially muddied backfield.
Obviously, this year's MVP, Patrick Mahomes, is the man who makes the passing game hum. Further, Andy Reid leans on his elite quarterback. According to numberFire, the Chiefs had 107 passes and 57 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts from Week 15 through Week 18. And in two close playoff contests, the Chiefs attempted 80 passes and 43 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Mahomes thrived in the pass-happy attack. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he led the NFL in passing yards per game (308.8), passing touchdowns (41) and QBR (77.6). He's a matchup-proof monster, alleviating concerns about Philadelphia's talented pass defense. Further, the Eagles were rarely challenged by capable quarterbacks this year and stumbled in a few marquee matchups. So, Mahomes is an elite selection.
Travis Kelce is the other top-shelf option on the Chiefs. He was 10th in receptions per game (6.5), 11th in receiving yards per game (78.7) and second in touchdown receptions (12) this year. He's also been an unstoppable force in the playoffs. Kelce had 25 targets, 21 receptions, 176 receiving yards and three touchdowns in two postseason games this season. Further, he's averaged 9.4 receptions per game, 104.4 receiving yards per and scored nine touchdowns in eight playoff games since 2020. The Eagles are ill-equipped to slow his roll. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, tight ends averaged 15.8 DraftKings and 12.7 FanDuel points per game against the Eagles from Week 15 through Week 18.
The matchup is also favorable for Kansas City's backup tight ends, Noah Gray and Jody Fortson. Gray is the more desirable option of the two. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gray ran the fifth-most routes (112) for the Chiefs since Week 15. He hauled in all eight of his targets for 96 scoreless yards. Meanwhile, Fortson returned from an injury for the AFC Championship game and ran nine routes. His usage in the red zone is the biggest draw for using Fortson as a minimum-salary punt. Fortson was targeted five times inside the 10-yard line and had two touchdown receptions in 13 games.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has frequently posted unexciting lines in his first year on the Chiefs. However, he exploded for six receptions, 116 receiving yards and one touchdown on eight targets in the Conference Championship, and he had a six-yard touchdown reception on his only catch in the Divisional Round. MVS's vertical speed gives him big-play potential, too.
Kadarius Toney is maddening. He flashes potential but hasn't been able to shake the injury bug or capture a more prominent role in Kansas City's offense. Fortunately, the injury news is good leading up to the Super Bowl.
Toney also progressed to full participation in Thursday's practice. So, barring a setback, he'll be ready to roll. But will he get banged up early in the contest and frustrate gamers who roll the dice on him? Sadly, that's within his range of outcomes.
The second-year wideout is an electrifying playmaker, and Reid's force-fed him the ball in his limited snaps. According to PFF, Toney had 17 targets, 14 receptions, 147 receiving yards and one touchdown reception on only 48 routes in his previous six games. Toney also handled four carries for 40 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. As a result, taking a chance on Toney to stay healthy for this game is a worthwhile venture.
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat weapon. He averaged 246.7 passing yards per game and 50.7 rushing yards per game in the regular season and added 22 passing touchdowns and 13 rushing touchdowns in 15 games. Hurts hasn't been flawless in the postseason. Still, he's been a fantasy darling. In two uncompetitive games, he's averaged 137.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards per game, scoring twice on the ground and tossing two touchdowns. Hurts's low passing output can be forgiven because the Eagles steamrolled the Giants and 49ers, and they're unlikely to pull off the same feat against the Chiefs.
As a result, Hurts should have a lot on his plate in a decent matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are seventh in pass defense DVOA and 23rd in rush defense DVOA since Week 15. Moreover, they've been a better rushing matchup for quarterbacks than running backs, elevating Hurts's ceiling and DFS appeal.
There should be plenty of meat on the bone for Philadelphia's talented pass-catching trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles attempted 94 passes and 52 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their final four games in the regular season, which included a pair of starts by backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.
Brown and Smith have coexisted nicely in Philly's offense. The former had 5.2 receptions per game, 88.0 receiving yards per game and 11 touchdowns in the regular season. The latter had 5.6 receptions per game, 70.4 receiving yards per game and seven touchdown receptions. Fortunately, they're both outstanding stylistic fits for a matchup against the Chiefs.
Brown's the more exciting option, but Smith is also a superb pick.
The matchup is good for Goedert, too. The Chiefs coughed up 16.9 DK and 14.4 FD points per game to tight ends in the last four weeks of the regular season, and Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst and Mitchell Wilcox combined for 10 receptions and 78 receiving yards against them in the postseason. Goedert is superior to the collection of tight ends the Chiefs have opposed in the playoffs. Further, he's been sharp since returning from a knee injury in Week 16. In his previous five games, he's averaged 4.4 receptions and 47.8 receiving yards per game on only 5.4 targets per game. The Chiefs won't get blown out like Philadelphia's other opponents in the playoffs. Thus, Goedert could see a higher volume of work.
Kenneth Gainwell is the most intriguing ancillary option. Running backs averaged 5.7 receptions and 29.8 receiving yards per game against the Chiefs since Week 15. Gainwell is Philadelphia's most likely back to exploit the Chiefs through the air. In Philadelphia's last six games, Gainwell ran 86 routes, Miles Sanders ran 65 and Boston Scott ran 45. Gainwell can also chip in on the ground behind Philadelphia's butt-kicking offensive line.
Quez Watkins's most likely outcome in the big game is barely making an appearance in the box score. The third-year wideout had under 20 receiving yards in his previous seven games. Yikes. Still, Watkins was fourth on the club in routes (128) in their last six games. So, there's always a chance he could benefit from a coverage bust or see a few looks when Hurts extends plays with his legs.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes and Hurts are the best MVP/Captain choices. However, gamers who are multi-entering contests can also turn to Kelce, Brown, Smith or Goedert. It's not crazy to stick in a contrarian play, either. However, it's not unusual for gamers to use the MVP/Captain spot on a low-salary player to jam in as many studs as possible. Thus, it won't be entirely against the grain.
Balanced lineups are reasonable between these two juggernauts. But sticking in a few onslaught lineups that feature only the minimum of one player from one of the teams is a rock-solid decision, too. Finally, all of my rosters have both Mahomes and Hurts. I don't suggest fading either of them.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
