For a professional athlete, a contract year is monumental. Many players get one opportunity in their career to cash in to earn generational money on a large free-agent deal and much of that earning power depends on how you perform in the season prior to hitting the open market.
There’s little doubt that a contract year adds additional pressure. Some undoubtedly feel it more than others and not every situation is the same. Player A may have a lengthy history of elite production that will secure a big bag regardless of contract-year performance while Player B might need a strong bounce-back season whether it be due to injury or performance leading up to the contract year.
You don’t have to look far to see just how much a contract year can affect a free-agent contract. The New York Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension prior to the 2022 season, compensating the outfielder for his work prior to his contract year. Judge not only balked at the offer but went on to set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2023. The end result was a nine-year, $360 million deal once Judge hit free agency. He added $146.5 million on his next deal.
However, it can also go the other way. Slugger Joey Gallo entered a contract year in 2022 and flopped to a .160 average and just 19 home runs on the season. He still managed a solid one-year, $11 million deal with the Twins, but what if Gallo hit 38-plus homers as he did in three of the previous four full seasons? After all, he’s an excellent defender with a cannon for an arm, but his contract-year work at the dish was putrid.
While there’s motivation to produce in a contract year, that notion is largely irrelevant when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every player has the motivation to perform or risk losing their job. Of course, this doesn’t just apply to professional athletes.
However, if you’re bullish on contract-year players, let’s take a look at some names you should target on draft day. We’ll leave the Shohei Ohtanis and Clayton Kershaws of the world out of the equation as those are the types of players that are locks to get a big deal or are already financially secure.
Let’s dial in on some names that are looking for their first big contract heading into the 2024 season. Below is a closer look at Jack Flaherty.
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Contract-Year Players to Buy in 2023: Jack Flaherty
*This list does not include those with mutual or club options in their contracts for 2024.
Jack Flaherty (SP – STL)
The early returns on Jack Flaherty’s career seemingly put him on the brink of superstardom before injuries took their toll.
The right-hander turned in a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts at age 22 in 2018 before tossing a 2.75 ERA across a hefty 33 starts and 196 1/3 innings pitched a year later. However, Flaherty struggled to a 4.91 ERA in nine starts during the shortened 2020 season while he’s made just 26 appearances and 23 starts in two seasons since.
He pitched to a decent 4.25 ERA in 36 innings in 2022, but his metrics were solid. His 5.6% barrel rate and 30.8% hard-hit rate easily better the league average, although his monster 13.2% BB% left plenty to be desired.
Nonetheless, Flaherty is healthy and building up toward Opening Day, something that was not the case last season. His track record suggests control isn’t a big issue while he owns a career 28% K% compared to the 19.8% mark he turned in last season. His 8.8% BB% rate isn’t great but nothing to be terribly concerned about.
While he’s a risky fantasy baseball target entering the 2023 campaign, this is precisely the type of player that is pitching for his next contract. If he can show a return to his 2018-2019 form while making at least 26-28 starts, he’ll get paid. There’s no doubt that’s the type of campaign he’s working toward.
He could be a steal late in drafts if his shoulder can hold up in 2023.
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