For a professional athlete, a contract year is monumental. Many players get one opportunity in their career to cash in to earn generational money on a large free-agent deal and much of that earning power depends on how you perform in the season prior to hitting the open market.
There’s little doubt that a contract year adds additional pressure. Some undoubtedly feel it more than others and not every situation is the same. Player A may have a lengthy history of elite production that will secure a big bag regardless of contract-year performance while Player B might need a strong bounce-back season whether it be due to injury or performance leading up to the contract year.
You don’t have to look far to see just how much a contract year can affect a free-agent contract. The New York Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension prior to the 2022 season, compensating the outfielder for his work prior to his contract year. Judge not only balked at the offer but went on to set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2023. The end result was a nine-year, $360 million deal once Judge hit free agency. He added $146.5 million on his next deal.
However, it can also go the other way. Slugger Joey Gallo entered a contract year in 2022 and flopped to a .160 average and just 19 home runs on the season. He still managed a solid one-year, $11 million deal with the Twins, but what if Gallo hit 38-plus homers as he did in three of the previous four full seasons? After all, he’s an excellent defender with a cannon for an arm, but his contract-year work at the dish was putrid.
While there’s motivation to produce in a contract year, that notion is largely irrelevant when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every player has the motivation to perform or risk losing their job. Of course, this doesn’t just apply to professional athletes.
However, if you’re bullish on contract-year players, let’s take a look at some names you should target on draft day. We’ll leave the Shohei Ohtanis and Clayton Kershaws of the world out of the equation as those are the types of players that are locks to get a big deal or are already financially secure.
Let’s dial in on some names that are looking for their first big contract heading into the 2024 season. Below is a closer look at Josh Hader.
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Contract-Year Players to Buy in 2023: Josh Hader
*This list does not include those with mutual or club options in their contracts for 2024.
Josh Hader (RP – SD)
Few saw what would come when the Padres acquired Josh Hader from the Brewers at the 2022 trade deadline.
Hader wasn’t exactly enjoying a productive season with a 4.24 ERA in 37 outings with the Brewers but face-planted to the tune of a 7.31 ERA across 19 outings with the Padres. What this simply does is make Hader one of the top bounce-back candidates in fantasy baseball this season.
Despite a 5.22 ERA in 2022, Hader owns a career 2.71 mark, the best mark among relievers with at least 300 innings pitched since he entered the league in 2017. Additionally, his 43.2% K% in that time also ranks first in baseball. In other words. he’s arguably been the most dominant reliever in baseball since he entered the league.
Josh Hader is the only pitcher in the expansion era with at least 25 strikeouts in a span of 9 innings pitched.
(h/t: @eliassports) pic.twitter.com/8FESw7oALL
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) May 11, 2019
Hader’s ADP of 46 is seemingly undervalued. Predictably, the Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase and the Mets’ Edwin Diaz are the closers being drafted ahead of Hader, but Hader’s strikeout rates dominate those of Clase and he should be able to rack up as many if not more saves on what should be a very good Padres team.
I’d suggest waiting on Hader before jumping on either of the first two in fantasy but he’s certainly a player whose track record should net him either a large extension from the Padres or a monster deal in free agency.
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