For a professional athlete, a contract year is monumental. Many players get one opportunity in their career to cash in to earn generational money on a large free-agent deal and much of that earning power depends on how you perform in the season prior to hitting the open market.
There’s little doubt that a contract year adds additional pressure. Some undoubtedly feel it more than others and not every situation is the same. Player A may have a lengthy history of elite production that will secure a big bag regardless of contract-year performance while Player B might need a strong bounce-back season whether it be due to injury or performance leading up to the contract year.
You don’t have to look far to see just how much a contract year can affect a free-agent contract. The New York Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension prior to the 2022 season, compensating the outfielder for his work prior to his contract year. Judge not only balked at the offer but went on to set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2023. The end result was a nine-year, $360 million deal once Judge hit free agency. He added $146.5 million on his next deal.
However, it can also go the other way. Slugger Joey Gallo entered a contract year in 2022 and flopped to a .160 average and just 19 home runs on the season. He still managed a solid one-year, $11 million deal with the Twins, but what if Gallo hit 38-plus homers as he did in three of the previous four full seasons? After all, he’s an excellent defender with a cannon for an arm, but his contract-year work at the dish was putrid.
While there’s motivation to produce in a contract year, that notion is largely irrelevant when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every player has the motivation to perform or risk losing their job. Of course, this doesn’t just apply to professional athletes.
However, if you’re bullish on contract-year players, let’s take a look at some names you should target on draft day. We’ll leave the Shohei Ohtanis and Clayton Kershaws of the world out of the equation as those are the types of players that are locks to get a big deal or are already financially secure.
Let’s dial in on some names that are looking for their first big contract heading into the 2024 season. Below is a closer look at Julio Urias.
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Contract-Year Players to Buy in 2023: Julio Urias
*This list does not include those with mutual or club options in their contracts for 2024.
Julio Urias (SP – LAD)
Here’s a guy that could secure a massive bag if he can produce anywhere close to his 2022 campaign.
It feels like Julio Urias has been around forever, and indeed he’s pitched in parts of seven MLB seasons with the Dodgers after debuting at just 19 years of age in 2016. After injuries hampered him earlier in his career, he’s put it together in a major way over the last three seasons.
Let’s take a look at where the now 26-year-old ranks among his qualified peers since the 2020 season.
ERA: 2.68 (T-2nd)
Starts: 73 (T-9th)
IP: 409.2 (14th)
BB%: 5.8% (7th)
AVG: .210 (4th)
Remember, Urias is technically just entering his prime MLB seasons at 26 years of age. While injuries certainly aren’t a positive, one thing they’ve done for Urias is limit the innings on his arm as he’s thrown just 599.2 regular-season frames in parts of seven seasons. However, with 63 starts and 360 2/3 innings pitched over the last two seasons, he’s proving he can be a front-line workhorse.
Coming off a 2.16 ERA in 31 starts while finishing third in NL Cy Young voting and even getting down-ballot MVP votes, Urias is not only a top-tier fantasy pitcher but a player that appears set for a big contract year in 2023.
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