For a professional athlete, a contract year is monumental. Many players get one opportunity in their career to cash in to earn generational money on a large free-agent deal and much of that earning power depends on how you perform in the season prior to hitting the open market.
There’s little doubt that a contract year adds additional pressure. Some undoubtedly feel it more than others and not every situation is the same. Player A may have a lengthy history of elite production that will secure a big bag regardless of contract-year performance while Player B might need a strong bounce-back season whether it be due to injury or performance leading up to the contract year.
You don’t have to look far to see just how much a contract year can affect a free-agent contract. The New York Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension prior to the 2022 season, compensating the outfielder for his work prior to his contract year. Judge not only balked at the offer but went on to set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2023. The end result was a nine-year, $360 million deal once Judge hit free agency. He added $146.5 million on his next deal.
However, it can also go the other way. Slugger Joey Gallo entered a contract year in 2022 and flopped to a .160 average and just 19 home runs on the season. He still managed a solid one-year, $11 million deal with the Twins, but what if Gallo hit 38-plus homers as he did in three of the previous four full seasons? After all, he’s an excellent defender with a cannon for an arm, but his contract-year work at the dish was putrid.
While there’s motivation to produce in a contract year, that notion is largely irrelevant when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every player has the motivation to perform or risk losing their job. Of course, this doesn’t just apply to professional athletes.
However, if you’re bullish on contract-year players, let’s take a look at some names you should target on draft day. We’ll leave the Shohei Ohtanis and Clayton Kershaws of the world out of the equation as those are the types of players that are locks to get a big deal or are already financially secure.
Let’s dial in on some names that are looking for their first big contract heading into the 2024 season. Below is a closer look at Rhys Hoskins.
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- Hitters to Avoid | Target
- Pitchers to Avoid | Target
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Contract-Year Players to Buy in 2023: Rhys Hoskins
*This list does not include those with mutual or club options in their contracts for 2024.
Rhys Hoskins (1B – PHI)
Rhys Hoskins has already delivered plenty of value for the Phillies as he wasn’t drafted until the fifth round in 2014 but has hit for a wealth of power in his six years with the club.
Hoskins has hit at least 27 home runs in each of the last four full MLB seasons and at least 30 in two of those four campaigns. Since he entered the league in 2017, Hoskins’ 148 home runs rank 23rd in baseball while his .250 isolated power in that time checks in at 17th, this time among qualified hitters. For good measure, his 13.5% BB% is tied for 18th among qualified hitters.
In the real world, Hoskins’ next free-agent deal will be capped by the fact he has zero defensive versatility and is a poor overall defender. Of course, that’s irrelevant in fantasy as Hoskins will certainly get everyday at-bats when healthy between first base and designated hitter for the Phillies in 2023.
His ADP is hovering around 120 as the ninth first baseman off the board in NFBC leagues, right in between Nathaniel Lowe and C.J. Cron. He interestingly collected just 79 RBI despite launching 30 long balls in 2022, but he remains a key cog in a productive Phillies offense.
I like the upside with Hoskins and I think his ADP is undervalued given his raw power and consistent production throughout his big-league career.
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