Fantasy baseball draft season is a time of optimism. Sadly, not every player will live up to draft-day expectations. Some players will inevitably fail to deliver value at their average draft position (ADP). Avoiding costly busts can help a squad contend for a championship. But, of course, bust is a relative term, and the cost of missing on a late-round pick is minimal.
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Bust Pitchers: Kenley Jansen
Kenley Jansen (RP – BOS): 97.4 ADP & 124.8 ECR
According to last year’s value-based rankings (VBR), Jansen was the 43rd-ranked pitcher. The once dominant closer is selected as a top-100 pick and the 38th pitcher. Sadly, his underlying data was decent but provided a reason for concern.
Jansen’s 3.38 ERA was roughly in line with his 3.45 xERA. Further, his 2.75 SIERA and 2.34 xERA were better than his ERA. However, Jansen’s had his two lowest groundball rates since 2020. Jansen’s 11.4 SwStr% in 2022 was also the lowest mark in his career and a stark fall from his 15.0 SwStr% in 2021.
A change of scenery could also pose problems for Jansen’s flyball-heavy batted-ball profile. According to our park factors, Fenway Park has the third-highest park factor for runs (1.210), third-highest for triples (1.643) and highest for doubles (1.298). It also increases homers (1.095). The combination of missing fewer bats and allowing more flyballs is a recipe for a potentially disastrous season. So, gamers should allow another league mate to overpay for a name-brand closer. Thus, the rankers have the right idea, even if they aren’t as aggressively out on Jansen as I am, ranking him 156th overall.
Beyond our fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball draft season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
