Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression
Stats up to date through April 3, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
With Witt surging into the first round of many fantasy baseball drafts this year, it was certainly somewhat discouraging to see him go 0-for-10 with no counting stats over the Royals’ first three games. Not to worry, as he got on the board Monday. The 22-year-old slugger went 2-for-3 with a couple of singles, a run scored and a steal in a 9-5 win over the Blue Jays to kick off the week.
Over his 16 plate appearances so far this season, Witt has walked three times, struck out just three times and is scalding the baseball. On the 10 balls put in play to this point, he has an average exit velocity (EV) of 99.3 mph and a ridiculous 70-percent hard-hit rate.
Do not let an eye-popping 6.00 ERA beside Webb’s name fool you. The Giants ace was very good on Opening Day at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, starting with the 12 strikeouts and 16.3 SwStr% he recorded. He did give up a couple of homers, but the groundball specialist only allowed four flyballs. Do not expect the long ball to be a problem going forward for Webb. Over the last two seasons combined, he has allowed just 20 HR across 340 2/3 innings (0.53 HR/9).
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and an 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.