Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players I would try to buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
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Here are players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball.
Players to Buy Low
Melendez has struggled this season, hitting .210/.303/.370 with five home runs and a stolen base. However, he has been better in the month of May, hitting .247, and that is more indicative of the player we expected coming into 2023. He is also hitting the ball with more authority now, boosting his hard contact percentage up from 35.7% to 51.7% this month. You can still get him at an affordable rate, but I don’t know how long you will be able to do that.
Ruiz has been pretty disappointing this season, hitting .229/.299/.343 with four home runs this year, but that is not indicative of the player that he is. He is making an elite level of zone contact this season and sporting a minuscule 6% swinging strike rate. His xBA is just .284, and while I don’t expect him to have a power breakout, the batting average should come back, which makes him a valuable fantasy commodity.
Cortes has struggled this season, throwing 54.1 innings with a 5.30 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, he has been pretty unlucky in his strand rate, and the last few starts have looked better, even if the results haven’t been great. His slider has been much sharper, and he is starting to use it more. I think he is beginning to turn a corner, and now is a really nice time to buy.
Oviedo has struggled so far, throwing 53.2 innings with a 4.70 and a 1.53 WHIP. However, he has been unlucky in the BABIP department and his strand rate. His xERA is just 3.93, and he has a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts. He may be available in some leagues off the wire and cheap in leagues where he is still rostered.
Players to Sell High
Edman has started off the season fine, hitting .262/.317/.448 with six home runs and seven stolen bases. However, there are a lot of signs that things are not going to be getting better for him. Since 5/15, Edman has only hit leadoff once, spending most of his time hitting seventh, eighth, or ninth. While he has been productive in that span, hitting five home runs and stealing six bases, he has a 53.8% ground ball rate which doesn’t bode well for him continuing to hit for power. I think most people will see the production and try to buy low, but I am selling if he is stuck in the bottom third of the lineup.
Isaac Paredes (1B, 2B, 3B – TB)
Paredes has had a nice season so far, hitting .282/.354/.491 with eight home runs, and he has been even better in the month of May, hitting .300/.380/.543. However, he has been getting lucky on balls in play, running a .309 BABIP when he has a .239 career BABIP. His barrel rate is just 3.1%, and he has a paltry 28.2% hard-hit rate. While he is playing regularly right now, if he starts coming back to earth, he will definitely lose that playing time with the platoon-happy Rays.
Gray has been really good this season, throwing 61.2 innings with a 2.77 ERA and 51 strikeouts. However, he has been pretty lucky thus far. He has a 4.21 xERA and a 5.13 SIERA, and that hasn’t looked much better in the month of May, with him having a 5.86 SIERA. His 1.41 WHIP is more indicative of the kind of skills he actually has, which means you should jump off if you can get something of decent value.
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