Players the Experts Avoid: Deshaun Watson, Kenneth Walker III, D.K. Metcalf (2023 Fantasy Football)

As you prepare for your fantasy football draft, it’s important to have a sense of rankings and where players are being drafted. Of course, this will change league-to-league, but you can usually get a sense of where a player is likely to go in your draft with a little fantasy football research. To really zero in on a player’s average draft position (ADP), you can use our consensus ADP. This, combined with our Expert Consensus Ranking, will allow you to get a sense of players that are drafted earlier or later in general drafts versus where the experts would recommend you targeting them.

For example, if you have a player with an ADP of No. 12 overall, but our consensus of experts view them as a top-five player, that’s probably someone you want to consider targeting in the back-end of the first round. On the flip side, if a player has an average draft position of No. 5 overall but our experts view the player as outside of the top-10 overall in their rankings, you’re likely better off allowing one of your league mates to make that draft pick.

Now that you’re armed with how to use ADP and our Expert Consensus Rankings, let’s take a look at a few opportunities to capitalize based on current rankings.

More Fantasy Football Advice
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Best Ball Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Fantasy Football Players the Experts Avoid Drafting

Here are players our analysts are avoiding based on their ADP. ECR is made up of Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown.

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

ADP: QB9
ECR: QB11

The 2022 version of Deshaun Watson was a far cry from the early-career Watson who finished top five in QB fantasy scoring in each of his first three seasons as a starter. Amid allegations of sexual assault, Watson didn’t play in 2021 and served an 11-game suspension in 2022 before making a Week 13 debut for the Browns against his old team, the Texans. Watson was predictably rusty, producing numbers befitting a fantasy backup over a small sample size. It’s reasonable to assume that Watson will look at least a little more like the dynamic dual-threat QB he used to be in 2023, but it would be a leap of faith to assume that he’ll be as effective as he was from 2018 to 2020.

Pat Fitzmaurice

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

ADP: No. 34 overall | RB14
ECR: No. 52 overall | RB20

Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games, he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. Walker’s late ADP last season made him a draft-day steal.

We all knew that Rashaad Penny was never going to be “the guy” for the long run based on his injury track record and that Walker would likely take over RB1 duties as an uber-talented second-round pick. He did just that and got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times. And at times, we even saw Walker earn targets while leading the backfield in routes run.

But overall, he underwhelmed as a receiver as he did at the college level. And his tendency to look for home runs rushes resulted in a rushing success rate that ranked second-to-last (31.4%) among rushers with at least 100 carries in 2022. He also missed games because of injuries.

And his path to RB1 upside will be that much tougher to realize after the team added Zach Charbonnet in the second round of this year’s draft. Charbonnet posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.

The rookie Seahawk can’t deliver explosive rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. That’s concerning for those hoping Walker was stepping into a workhorse role this season, which was very appealing about his fantasy profile last year.

Andrew Erickson

D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)

ADP: No. 32 overall | WR15
ECR: No. 42 overall | WR17

Metcalf has seen his fantasy production decline in three straight seasons after opening his first two seasons as the WR10 and WR20 in fantasy points per game. He found himself sitting at WR24 after the 2022 season. Metcalf’s finish was fueled by three massive games in which he finished with at least 127 receiving yards as the WR7 or higher in weekly scoring. He was a rollercoaster wide receiver who also had six weeks as a WR55 or lower in weekly scoring. Metcalf’s overall metrics in 2022 still put him in the WR2 bucket when projecting forward to 2023. He was 18th in target share (25.5%), tenth in air yard share (36.3%), and 34th in yards per route run. Metcalf was also 12th in deep target and second in red zone targets among receivers.