Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry, I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be looking to draft a ton this year. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.
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Derek Brown’s Players to Target
Here are a few of my players to target in 2023 fantasy football.
Jalen Hurts TRIED to tell y’all back thenpic.twitter.com/Vri8SjA1wi
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 17, 2023
I know it’s shocking to see Jalen Hurts make my list. It sounded absolutely outrageous last year when I proclaimed Hurts as an MVP candidate until it happened. Well, I’m back on this horse for 2023. Hurts was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, but he can STILL take another step forward this year as a fantasy producer. Assuming his rushing equity stays stable, the passing game could offer a higher ceiling for Hurts this season. If the Eagles’ defense takes a step back or the offensive design is tweaked at all, Hurts could pile up passing yards. Last year, Philadelphia led the entire NFL in plays run with a lead of eight points or more. Why does this matter? Well, the Eagles abandoned the passing game in the second half of games as they leaned on their ground attack to salt the game away. Philadelphia was seventh in passing plays per game in the first half of games last year, versus running the fourth-fewest passing plays per game in the second half. If this tilts in the other direction, we could easily see more passing volume for Hurts. Also lumped into this is the Eagles’ love for running the ball in close. They were second in red zone rushing rate last year, and while we want this to stay at a healthy rate for Hurts’ rushing production, if it tilts even slightly, Hurts could throw for 30 passing touchdowns while still piling up tush push scores.
Justin Herbert
2022: 2023: pic.twitter.com/kM7Yt8zpLj
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 14, 2023
The combination of injuries to the Chargers’ wide receiver room and the neutering of the passing attack under Joe Lombardi crushed Justin Herbert last year. He fell from QB2 in fantasy points per game the season before to QB15 last year. His deep ball rate fell from 11.3% in his rookie season to 9.5-9.8% over the last two seasons. Woof! Don’t worry, “social media quarterback” stans. With Kellen Moore now running things, Herbert will be back with a vengeance as a top-tier fantasy option this year. Herbert has finished second in passing attempts and passing yards in each of the last two seasons. That volume is not going anywhere with an offensive coordinator who, since 2019, directed a Dallas offense that was first in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate. Dak Prescott has ranked inside the top-13 quarterbacks in the NFL in air yards per attempt in three of his last four seasons. Passing volume and deep passing will be all the rage in Los Angeles this year, and the addition of Quentin Johnston will insulate this passing attack if an injury or two crops up in season. Herbert will be a top 3-5 fantasy quarterback this season.
What I hear when people toss the same BAD narratives at Justin Fields that they used with Jalen Hurts:pic.twitter.com/qM8i4dPSzJ
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 1, 2023
Justin Fields put his league-winning upside on display last year. Overall, he was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-11, after the team committed to utilizing his legs more, he was the QB1 in fantasy points per game. The rushing acumen is a known commodity, so there’s no reason to dive headlong into that area. The passing department is where many want to toss shade at Fields, to find mind-numbing reasons to fade him. Well, I don’t agree with that at all, and if you look at the right details, you shouldn’t either. In Weeks 7-16, Fields should have proved to the world that his passing prowess is on the rise. During that stretch, he was eighth in adjusted completion rate, 12th in big-time throw rate, and 13th in passer rating (per PFF). Investing in Fields this year feels oddly reminiscent of going all in on Jalen Hurts last year. Stack the chips and push them to the middle with Fields in 2023.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
