The NFL season is fast approaching, and every year one of the most exciting parts of fantasy football is taking stands on players with shaky job security. These players tend to be available cheaper than they have been in previous years, or the shakiness is baked into the cost of acquiring them in 2023.
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Starters with Shaky Job Security
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
It might seem strange to think of Russell Wilson as someone with shaky job security not even a year after he signed a five-year $245m contract extension with the Broncos, but make no mistake; the heat has been turned up on Wilson with the arrival of Sean Payton.
Most reports have suggested that the Broncos ownership has given Payton carte blanche to do as he sees fit with the team, and if that means they have to eat tens of millions in dead-cap next year, so be it. Wilson can be traded next summer for as little as $18m in dead cap while saving the team $17m, which isn’t terrible if they feel like they have to move on.
Payton prioritized signing former Raiders backup Jarrett Stidham in free agency, giving him a two-year $10m deal and talking him up as a potential starter in the league. Wilson needs to get out to a hot start to quiet any whispers about Stidham taking his job.
Mac Jones (QB – NE)
Much of last year’s issues can be put down to the co-offensive coordinators that Bill Belichick chose to put in charge of the offense, and despite Belichick having a lot of credit in the bank, that decision looks disastrous in hindsight. The Patriots dropped from a top-five offense in weighted DVOA in 2021 to 27th in 2022, along with ranking bottom five in total first downs. Simply put, you can’t score points or win games if you can’t stay on the field. That’s not to excuse Mac Jones, who regressed from his impressive rookie season, seeing his time to throw grow from 2.59 seconds to 2.69, and his completions over expected per game dropped from 2.6 in 2021 to -0.6.
Bailey Zappe seemed to have earned the trust and faith of his coaches in a way the fiery Jones has yet to do, and if Jones doesn’t have a solid training camp, the rumor mill might start churning.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
On paper, the Vikings seem to have plenty of faith in Alexander Mattison, turning the running back duties over to him after re-signing him in free agency and then releasing Dalvin Cook. However, Mattison’s contract isn’t particularly spectacular, with him earning only $7m over the next two years, and rumors are doing the rounds that the Vikings have already offered Dalvin Cook a contract if he’d like to return to Minnesota.
Mattison has had to bide his time behind Cook throughout his career, but in the six games he’s had over 50% of the snaps in the last three years, he’s averaged 22.15 PPR points per game. The problem for Mattison is that he’s only had six games in the last three years where he’s had 50% of the snaps. That’s a tiny amount for a player now expected to become a workhorse, and the Vikings have a cluster of running backs behind Mattison who could eat into the workload if he fails to impress.
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