Every Monday of the NFL regular season, we will showcase exceptional player performances from the weekend and analyze their potential for sustained success in fantasy football. We will rank these performances from ? to ????? based on whether we believe they are momentary or long-term options for your fantasy teams.
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Fantasy Football Heat Index
Quarterback
Stats: 25/32, 246 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 8 rushes, 31 rushing yards
Position Rank (pre-MNF): QB8 (22.94 points)
Analysis: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-1 thanks to efficient quarterback play from Baker Mayfield. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner isn’t exactly lighting up the box score, but he’s playing within himself and protecting the football. Mayfield has a 7-2 TD-INT ratio through four games and has Tampa Bay in first place in the NFC South.
Mayfield is a decent QB2 in superflex leagues, but he’s difficult to trust in your standard 1QB formats. Before this week, Mayfield had finished as the QB11, QB18 and QB25 in Weeks 1-3, and his upcoming schedule (Lions, Falcons, Bills, Texans, Titans and 49ers) looks frightening on paper.
Heat Index: ?
Running Back
Stats: 18 carries, 103 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 1 TD, 5 targets
Position Rank (pre-MNF): RB8 (20.2 points)
Analysis: After weeks of speculation that rookie Roschon Johnson was taking over the RB1 role in Chicago, running back Khalil Herbert took command of the Bears backfield in Week 4. Herbert racked up 124 total yards thanks to a season-high in carries, rushing yards, receiving yards and targets.
Herbert played 40 more snaps than Johnson, ran 17 more routes, and out-carried him 18-3 in Chicago’s crushing 31-28 loss to Denver. The increase in usage – Herbert had 23 total carries in the first three games – is obviously a great sign for his fantasy football value moving forward.
We must mention that Herbert is the highest-rostered player in this week’s Heat Index, so he probably won’t be available on most waiver wires. However, Herbert is a priority add in the 23.6% of ESPN leagues and 34% of Sleeper leagues where he isn’t rostered.
Heat Index: ????
Stats: 7 rushes, 72 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 1 TD, 3 targets
Position Rank (pre-MNF): RB9 (17.9 points)
Analysis: With Javonte Williams sidelined with a hip injury, undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin was the beneficiary of an increased role in Denver’s backfield. Early reports indicate Williams left Sunday’s contest with a minor hip pointer, but McLaughlin becomes an intriguing waiver wire add if the injury turns out to be more serious.
McLaughlin played fewer snaps than Samaje Perine, but the rookie had two more opportunities (rushes + targets) than the veteran in Denver’s 31-28 comeback victory. If Williams misses any time, it figures to be a split workload between the two backs. Perine is nearly 50 pounds heavier, making him the overwhelming favorite for short-yardage work in that scenario.
Heat Index: ??
Wide Receiver
Stats: 6 receptions, 71 yards, 2 TD, 7 targets
Position Rank (pre-MNF): WR7 (23.1 points)
Analysis: Rookie wide receiver Michael Wilson pulled in two touchdowns and 71 yards in Arizona’s 35-16 defeat to the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. The Stanford grad caught six of his seven targets and scored his first two NFL touchdowns in his return to the Bay Area.
My concern is that Wilson’s production isn’t sustainable with such a low number of targets, but he’s had at least 56 receiving yards in three straight games. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has the Cardinals playing competitive football, and Wilson is a worthy speculative add if you have room on your bench.
Heat Index: ??
Tight End
Stats: 6 receptions, 95 yards, 6 targets
Position Rank (pre-MNF): TE3 (12.5 points)
Analysis: Finishing as a high-end TE1 without finding the endzone is a rarity these days. Shockingly enough, Falcons backup tight end Jonnu Smith achieved that rare feat in Atlanta’s 23-7 loss to Jacksonville in London. Although he didn’t find the endzone, Smith’s 95 receiving yards are the most by any tight end this season.
Despite playing fewer snaps than fellow tight end Kyle Pitts, Smith led the Falcons in both receptions and receiving yards on Sunday. The backup’s Week 4 production likely isn’t sustainable over time, but Smith does have four-plus receptions in three consecutive games. Smith isn’t suddenly fantasy-relevant after one above-average showing, but he’s a thorn in the side for those rostering Pitts and wide receiver Drake London.
Heat Index: ?
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