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Fantasy Football Week 5 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Fantasy Football Week 5 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.

Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Fantasy Football Week 5 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Teams Projected for High Week 5 Snap Counts

Kansas City Chiefs

Although it can be difficult to project who will get opportunities on the Chiefs besides Kelce, we know there will be plenty of them. Kansas City ran 66 plays in a matchup I highlighted last week, a strong number. This week, they again own the top matchup score in a game against Minnesota with the highest game total. I imagine this game will be chalky in daily fantasy sports (DFS), but it’ll be for a good reason: there will be a ton of plays for both teams.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have multiple quality options on offense, so it’s always great to get a spot where there will be enough opportunities to feed most (if not all) of them. This is one of those spots. Philadelphia is a rare team that ranks in the top ten in plays, pace, efficiency, and defense. Their opponent, the Rams, are also near the top of the NFL in plays and pace, but the Eagles’ defense should slow them down enough to where they won’t take too many plays from the Eagles. I think this game has shootout potential and will likely be targeting it heavily in DFS.

Houston Texans

This is the second time in three weeks I’ve highlighted the Texans, which feels like a minor miracle. Speaking of miracles, what Stroud has done with his supporting cast is borderline unbelievable. Houston might only have a 37.4 CER, but they have run a high amount of plays and have scored a respectable 24.0 points per game (PPG). They should continue this trend this week as they take on a sputtering Falcon team.

Teams Projected for Low Week 5 Snap Counts

Washington and Chicago

I don’t know how the NFL managed to feature this week’s worst matchup on primetime, but here we are. Both teams are below the league average in plays, pace, and efficiency. However, both also flashed offensive improvement in Week 4 but ultimately could not keep the lead. I honestly don’t even know how this game will play out, but I feel confident it will be a pretty boring contest with neither team running a significant amount of plays.

NY Giants

The Giants are an uncomfortable watch thus far. They face one of the NFL’s best offenses on a short week. The Giants, when in a neutral game script, have been the third-slowest team, a departure from last year’s squad, which was in the top half of the league. I suspect Miami will control this game, with maybe only garbage time being able to save the Giants’ play count.

Notes and Trends

  • Arizona's offense is... good? The Cardinals rank ninth in CER, above teams like Detroit, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. CER isn't on an island with this, either. Arizona ranks sixth in offensive DVOA but only 22nd in PPG. This turnaround is unbelievable. They were in the bottom five of CER last year and then added HC Jonathan Gannon and QB Joshua Dobbs, and now they have a top-10 offense? Maybe Gannon can coach.
  • Chicago was this week's biggest riser in CER. Justin Fields looked legitimately good for most of the game, and their offense as a whole looked much better from a week ago. Denver does have arguably the NFL's worst defense, so I'm not sure just how much we can take away from this, but it's worth noting
  • The biggest faller in CER this week goes to the Saints. I have no idea how to feel about this offense and the team in general. Some of this could have been due to Derek Carr playing through injury, but I don't think the Buccaneers are a good team, either. This is a team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

*Data from the table comes from Pro Football Reference, FTNfantasy Pace Tool, FTNfantasy DVOA, rbsdm, TeamRankings Minutes Played and TeamRankings Yards Per Play

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency, and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays.

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