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Fantasy Football Week 12 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Fantasy Football Week 12 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.

Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Fantasy Football Week 12 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Teams Projected for High Week 12 Snap Counts

Miami Dolphins

Miami hasn’t run as many plays as we would assume, but I think that’s mostly due to just how efficient their offense is this year. However, they have a great spot to see a spike in their snap count against the New York Jets on the inaugural Black Friday game. While it’s hard to imagine the Jets’ offense taking a step back, I think they do now that Tim Boyle is starting. I expect the Jets to struggle and the Dolphins to cruise to a comfortable victory with a high snap count in hand.

Kansas City Chiefs

While their offense has struggled as of late, they still averaged 65.2 plays per 60 minutes and should have a plus matchup against a surging Las Vegas Raiders team. While Las Vegas has improved under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, they’re too fragile with quarterback Aidan O’Connell under center – especially against a solid Chiefs defense. This should leave Kansas City with more plays run.

Detroit Lions

The Lions’ offense is as good as any in the league. They’re sitting at 67.1 plays per 60 minutes which ranks third in the NFL. This week, Detroit gets the rival Green Bay Packers on Turkey Day in what projects as a good matchup for the Lions. Green Bay hasn’t run a high play count this season, and the combination of the Lions’ offensive and defensive efficiency should lead them to run a high play count.

Teams Projected for Low Week 12 Snap Counts

Los Angeles Chargers

This offense has continued to disappoint this season under head coach Brandon Staley and his staff and they have a tough matchup against an elite Baltimore Ravens defense. The Chargers often run up a high play count because they find themselves playing from behind, but the Ravens defense is good enough that they should shut down any potential late game Justin Herbert heroics.

Tennessee Titans

It’s beginning to become too easy to fade the Titans. They continued their impressive run of low play counts by running an astonishingly 38 plays in a 34-14 road loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have a favorable matchup against the league-worst Carolina Panthers, but I still think they’re huge underdogs to run 60 plays.

Denver Broncos

While their offense has been coming to life as of late, they have an extremely daunting matchup against the Cleveland Browns and their 1st-ranked defense in DVOA. Denver has already run a low play total this year and that should be exaggerated this week against the Browns’ historically good defense.

Notes and Trends

  • The biggest riser in CER this week is the Jaguars. I'm not entirely convinced this is stricky due to how bad the Titans are, but it was at least good to finally see wideout Calvin Ridley and Trevor Lawrence look good out there on the gridiron.
  • The biggest faller in CER this week is the Chiefs. They've really struggled to find anyone else who can contribute to their passing core who is not dating Taylor Swift. Maybe Andy Reid will finally be forced to play Rashee Rice more...

*Data from the table comes from Pro Football Reference, FTNfantasy Pace Tool, FTNfantasy DVOA, rbsdm, TeamRankings Minutes Played and TeamRankings Yards Per Play

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency, and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays

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