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Fantasy Football Week 9 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Fantasy Football Week 9 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.

Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Fantasy Football Week 9 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)

Teams Projected for High Week 9 Snap Counts

Kansas City Chiefs

I love this spot for the Chiefs. They should be the favorite to run a lot of plays in either game script. If they’re ahead, their fifth-ranked defense might slow Miami down, and if they’re behind, they’ll play catch-up and run a high number of plays that way. I think this is naturally a good spot for offenses, but considering value and matchup, I like Kansas City a little more, at least when it comes to projected snap counts.

Cleveland Browns

I’m astounded every week when Cleveland continues their pace and volume, but they keep doing it. I don’t think this is as much an offensive story as it is a defensive one. The Browns have a tremendous defense that stifles their opponent’s drives, giving more plays to their offense. Playing Arizona on their decline makes it more enticing to target this offense in a game where they should run 65+ plays.

Atlanta Falcons

It’s been wild to watch this Arthur Smith-led team become one that projects for a ton of volume. While they still run the ball at a higher pace, they’re throwing it more and running at a good pace, creating more plays. They also have a favorable matchup against a Minnesota team that will have to navigate 2023 without their star QB, Kirk Cousins. Atlanta should dominate this game in all fashions, regardless of who they start at QB.

Teams Projected for Low Week 9 Snap Counts

New York Jets

The Jets are doing their best to get their volume up as they run the third-fastest pace in the NFL, but they’ve been so inefficient that it doesn’t matter. They’ll have a tough time righting that this Monday against a prolific Chargers offense that figures to dictate the game flow and run a ton of plays themselves. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson continue to be the only fantasy-relevant players on this team. There’s just not enough volume or efficiency left over for anyone else.

Chicago Bears

They’re without Justin Fields for another week, so the Bears should struggle offensively. Their play output has been around league average, but their pace is the second-slowest in the league, trailing only Tennesee. This week, they play a New Orleans team that is fast and increasingly efficient, likely leaving fewer plays for the Bears to run.

Las Vegas Raiders

This is a pitiful Raiders team that appears to be imploding after Monday’s loss to the Detroit Lions. Las Vegas averages less than 60 plays per 60 minutes and has just a 22.5 CER. Their matchup this week should actually be favorable against a really bad Giants team. Still, at this point, I’m not sure how much their opponent will dictate game flow. They’re bad and unlikely to run up a high snap count.

 

 

Notes & Trends

  • The biggest riser in CER this week is the New Orleans Saints. I pointed out last week that they had a surprisingly good matchup, and that prediction ended up smashing, as the Saints ran 66 plays and scored 38 points. They have another good matchup against a struggling Chicago Bears team.
  • Cincinnati also saw a 15-point jump in CER this week. They seem to be all the way back from their early-season struggles.
  • The biggest faller in CER this week is the New York Giants. They, somehow, continue to get worse on offense. They now hold a 1.7 CER, which would pace for the lowest season-long CER since... the 2021 Giants.

*Data from the table comes from Pro Football Reference, FTNfantasy Pace Tool, FTNfantasy DVOA, rbsdm, TeamRankings Minutes Played and TeamRankings Yards Per Play

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays

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