The NFL is taking center stage on Saturday with a tripleheader. Each game has potential playoff implications and has intriguing DFS options. One game’s total stands out from the pack. Yet, it’s not a no-brainer to stack to the moon.
Week 15 Matchups
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -3.0
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Vikings Analysis: Nick Mullens will start this week after head coach Kevin O'Connell had enough of Joshua Dobbs's volatility. O'Connell might ask his new starting quarterback to air it out often since he hasn't been shy about attacking teams through the air, even after Kirk Cousins was injured. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Vikings have had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate in their last four games.
Mullens isn't wholly inexperienced as a starter in a well-designed offense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mullens has averaged 267.8 passing yards per game with 24 passing touchdowns and 21 interceptions in 17 starts (16 for the 49ers and one for the Browns).
Obviously, Mullens isn't a flawless quarterback. Still, he has a cushy matchup on the docket and talented pass-catching weapons. According to The 33rd Team, the Bengals have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings (20.5) and tied for the sixth-most FanDuel (19.8) points per game allowed to quarterbacks since Week 11.
Justin Jefferson was knocked out of last week's game early after getting drilled while fully extending for a hospital ball from Dobbs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jefferson ran eight routes with three targets, two receptions and 27 receiving yards in Week 14. Thankfully, it appears Jefferson will return to action this week. Jefferson's upside is to lead the slate in scoring, making him an exciting pick.
T.J. Hockenson can also eat in a mouthwatering matchup. The Bengals have permitted tight ends the second-most DK (19.6) and FD (15.5) points per game since Week 11. Jefferson will likely siphon targets from Hockenson. Yet, the superstar tight end had 38 targets, 30 receptions (6.0 per game), 254 receiving yards (50.8 per game) and two touchdowns in the first five games of the year when Jefferson was still healthy.
Bengals Analysis: Jake Browning has exceeded even the wildest expectations. In three starts this season, he's completed 79.3% of his passes for 856 yards (285.3 per game), 9.8 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and two interceptions. He's also added 38 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Fortunately, Browning hasn't wilted against blitzes. He's PFF's fourth-ranked passer among quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 20 times against the blitz this season. Browning has completed 16 of 27 passes against the blitz for 245 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. So, he can succeed against Brian Flores's blitz-heavy defense.
Ja'Marr Chase is Cincinnati's top passing-game weapon. The club's No. 1 wide receiver has had team-highs in target share (25.3%), receptions (18), air yards (164), receiving yards (259), red zone targets (four) and caught a touchdown in Browning's three starts.
Tyler Boyd is a theoretical pick. He's had only 13 targets, 10 receptions and 83 scoreless yards in Browning's starts. However, his shallow average depth of target (4.8-yard aDOT) could be a stylistic fit against Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings have had the highest blitz rate (47.4%) in the NFL this season.
Joe Mixon has had a nose for the end zone in the last two games, scoring three rushing touchdowns. He was also fed 40 rush attempts but averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. Mixon added nine receptions for 95 receiving yards and could come through again, but the matchup is challenging on the ground.
So, instead, pivoting to Mixon's change-of-pace backup is compelling. Chase Brown has had nine and 11 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) in the previous two games, converting 17 rush attempts into 86 yards and hauling in three receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. Brown ran only eight routes last week but had three targets, three receptions, 80 yards and a touchdown against the Colts.
The rookie showed off his game-changing speed on a 54-yard reception. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brown's 22.05 mph max speed on the touchdown reception was the second-fastest in the NFL this season.
Brown's big-play ability is worth gambling on in GPPs at his bargain salary.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -1.5
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Colts have allowed the most DK (35.3) and the second-most FD (28.9) points per game to running backs since Week 11. That's outstanding for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. In three games since the Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Harris had 43 rush attempts for 191 yards, and Warren had 29 for 119. However, Warren had an edge on Harris through the air, with 11 targets, eight receptions and 38 receiving yards versus six, five and 33.
Pittsburgh's defense is also a stellar pick on this three-game slate. Gardner Minshew has turned the ball over in three consecutive games. He also was sacked eight times in those contests.
Colts Analysis: The Steelers have put the clamps on wideouts. Michael Pittman has the voluminous target share and ability to overcome the matchup. Nevertheless, I'm choosing to fade him on this three-game slate.
The matchup is also challenging for Alec Pierce. Yet, his salary is easier to stomach since he has a lower bar to clear to provide value to DFS squads. The second-year wide receiver has run the most routes (131) for the Colts in their last three games and had 15 targets, nine receptions, 149 receiving yards and one touchdown. Pierce is a one-dimensional lid-lifting wideout, making him a GPP-only choice.
Indianapolis's defense can wreak havoc. They're tied for the seventh-most turnovers (21) forced and tied for the third-most sacks (42) this season. They have a superb matchup against Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh's inept offense.
Game: Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -4.0
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: Courtland Sutton is a model of consistency this year despite Denver's inconsistent, low-volume offense. Denver's No. 1 wideout has scored a touchdown in 10 of 13 games this year, secured multiple receptions in 12 contests and cleared 50 receiving yards eight times.
Detroit's defense has collapsed lately, and a few wideouts have gotten the better of them. Since Week 11, they've allowed lines of 7-96-1 and 6-68-1 to DJ Moore, 5-94-1 to Christian Watson and 5-119-1 to Chris Olave. So, they're unlikely to slow Sutton.
Jared Goff has played markedly better at home as a Lion than on the road. Nevertheless, he's in a funk, and Denver's pass defense is excellent. Goff has had multiple turnovers in three of his previous four games and took 10 sacks in that stretch.
Lions Analysis: The Lions are a run-first team lately. Since Week 11, they've had a 52% situation-neutral rush rate. Their offensive approach has helped David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs thrive together.
In five games since Detroit's bye in Week 9, Montgomery's averaged 77.0 rushing yards per game and scored four rushing touchdowns while chipping in 1.2 receptions per game and 8.0 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, Gibbs has averaged 58.6 rushing yards per game, 3.4 receptions per game and 24.6 receiving yards per game and scored four touchdowns.
The matchup is unimposing for Montgomery and Gibbs. Since Week 11, the Broncos have allowed running backs 98.8 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 4.3 receptions per game and 30.5 receiving yards per game.
It's an even more favorable matchup for Sam LaPorta. The Broncos have coughed up the fourth-most DK (15.8) and FD (12.7) points per game to tight ends since Week 11. In Detroit's last five games, Laporta has been targeted 32 times and had 23 receptions (4.6) for 268 receiving yards (53.6 per game), 1.75 Y/RR and two touchdowns. The supremely talented rookie is an appealing pivot from Hockenson. However, gamers can also use Hockenson and LaPorta on the same DFS roster.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
