There’s uncertainty about the starting quarterbacks tonight. Nevertheless, the Monday Night Football game has shootout potential and many intriguing selections, including a handful of high-salaried superstars. Fortunately, intriguing mid-salaried options and even a few punts allow gamers to build stars-and-scrubs rosters.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: PHI -3.0
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is a DFS dreamboat, scoring points as a passer and runner. In his previous four games, he's passed for 845 yards (211.3 per game), four touchdowns and two interceptions. The dual-threat quarterback also rushed for 141 yards (35.3 per game) and five touchdowns in that stretch.
While he's matchup and game-script proof, Hurts has a favorable matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Seahawks have allowed the 13th-most DraftKings (19.0) and FanDuel (18.2) points per game to quarterbacks. Obviously, Hurts is an elite pick in all game types on this slate if his illness doesn't sideline him. Marcus Mariota is a viable selection if Hurts is inactive.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are Philadelphia's top passing-game weapons. Since Week 11, Brown has had a 32.8% target share, and Smith has nipped at his heels with a 31.1% target share. Smith had more air yards per game than Brown in those contests, 111 versus 90.
Brown has had more success with Dallas Goedert in the lineup than Smith. Nevertheless, both are outstanding options, and the Eagles pass enough to support each of them. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Eagles have had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11. That mark is identical to Seattle's situation-neutral pass rate against them in that period.
Quez Watkins is a nifty matchup-driven punt. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Watkins has run 51 routes in the previous two weeks, the third-most on the club. So, he's on the field.
Furthermore, Watkins's usage is ideal for this matchup. According to The 33rd Team, he's had a 67.2% slot rate this season. Since Week 11, the Seahawks have allowed the most DK (34.6) and FD (28.0) points per game to slots.
D'Andre Swift is Philadelphia's lead runner. He's handled 71.7% of the backfield's rush share since Week 11, rushing 43 times for 208 yards (52.0 per game) and one touchdown. However, he's run only 26 routes versus 43 for Kenneth Gainwell since Week 13. Swift would benefit from a positive game script, and Gainwell would benefit from a negative one.
Still, they both have a mouthwatering matchup. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the eighth-most DK (27.0) and FD (23.5) points per game to running backs. In those four games, the Seahawks allowed 118 rushing yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 4.0 receptions per game and 21 receiving yards per game to running backs.
Seahawks Analysis: It appears Geno Smith is a genuine game-time decision, perhaps on the doubtful side of questionable.
Drew Lock would start for the second straight week if Smith were ruled out. Whoever starts is an appealing choice, guiding a pass-heavy offense against a dreadful pass defense. The Seahawks have had a 64% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 11, and Philadelphia's opponents had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate.
Quarterbacks have torched the Eagles. Since Week 11, Philadelphia has allowed the most DK (28.0) and FD (26.5) points per game to quarterbacks, albeit facing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott during that stretch.
DK Metcalf is Seattle's No. 1 wideout. Since Week 11, he has led the Seahawks in routes (143), target share (23.4%), air yards per game (114), receiving yards (312) and touchdown receptions (five). Metcalf was also tied for second in receptions (16).
Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have been the second and third options in the passing attack, comfortably ahead of everyone else. Since Week 11, Lockett has had a 21.9% target share, 76 air yards per game, 19 receptions and 217 receiving yards. Meanwhile, JSN had a 19.4% target share, 49 air yards per game, 16 receptions and 168 receiving yards.
All three wide receivers are stellar selections. However, Lockett and JSN have a more favorable matchup than Metcalf. The Eagles have coughed up the second-most DK (29.4) and the third-most FD (23.9) points per game to slots since Week 11 versus 15.7 and 13.6 to perimeter wideouts. This season, Metcalf, Lockett and JSN have had slot rates of 19.9%, 47.2% and 74.6%, respectively. Metcalf's ceiling is the highest for the trio, but the salary discounts for Lockett and Smith-Njigba are appealing, too.
The Seahawks haven't used their tight ends often, but Noah Fant has stellar route participation. He's been fourth on the Seahawks in routes (92) since Week 11 but parlayed his route participation into only 11 targets, eight receptions and 107 receiving yards. Still, at his punt salary, Fant is a useful punt.
Colby Parkinson has run 44 routes since Week 11. He had three targets, three receptions, 37 receiving yards, and a touchdown in that span. Parkinson could post a bagel, but he's an intriguing minimum salary option on DK, where the cap relief he provides is extremely valuable.
Final Thoughts: Hurts is alone in the top tier for Captain/MVP choices if he plays. Brown and Metcalf are in the second tier, and Swift is an intriguing Captain/MVP pick, namely with the potential for him to handle more goal-line work than usual if the club doesn't want to over-exert an ill Hurts. Finally, balanced lineups or lineups tilting slightly toward either club are the most desirable constructions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
