PREMIUM

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 15 (2023 Fantasy Football)

It’s officially NFL playoff time for most of us, and here’s hoping you made it in your leagues! Whether you did or not, the daily fantasy sports (DFS) world is still going strong, and the bye weeks are over! We’ll still have a manageable slate of games since we’ve now got Saturday slates to attack as well (woohoo), so let’s see some of the pricing mistakes DraftKings has left us for Week 15!

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 15

QUARTERBACK

Jordan Love (GB) | ($6,200) vs. TB

Jordan Love put up a dud against my NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS last night, but he was red hot in the three weeks prior, averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) en route to being the QB4 in fantasy. Green Bay is in absolute must-win mode now, and Love will get a cookie of a matchup against Tampa Bay. The Bucs have allowed the highest yards per attempt (YPA) and the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs, and Love’s price tag hasn’t moved (thanks to playing on Monday Night Football). Take advantage, and hopefully he gets Christian Watson back.

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott (NE) | ($5,800) vs. KC

Sooooooo, DraftKings apparently has no faith in Ezekiel Elliott? It’s been a full five days since he torched the Steelers on Thursday night, and Zeke’s price only rose $400 in that span. I get that the Patriots are massive underdogs against Kansas City this week, but Elliott’s eight targets seem to be proof that he’s game-script neutral on this team as long as Rhamondre Stevenson remains out. Zeke had 29 touches in Week 14, and he is not remotely priced for that kind of workload.

Tyjae Spears (TEN) | ($4,800) vs. HOU

Derrick Henry still has a stranglehold on the carry share in Tennessee, but the rookie Spears continues to match him snap-wise. You can’t use Spears in cash settings, but his low price tag and participation in the passing game give him serious guaranteed prize pool (GPP) appeal. Spears’ 13.6% target share is actually eighth in the NFL among RBs, and he’s logged 14 targets over the last two weeks. If Tennessee trails Houston, we could see him easily surpass his value threshold.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jayden Reed (GB) | ($4,900) vs. TB

Regardless of Christian Watson’s status, Jayden Reed should be treated as the WR1 in Green Bay until further notice. For the purpose of this article, he’s simply not priced that way and pairs beautifully with the underpriced Jordan Love in all formats. In addition to Reed’s 34 targets over the last five games, he also has nine rushing attempts and two rushing TDs, so his usage is coming from all over. The matchup against TB is pristine, as the Bucs have allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing WRs and the third most FPPG out of the slow (where Reed lines up at a 68.8% rate).

Jonathan Mingo (CAR) | ($3,900) vs. ATL

Jonathan Mingo was a box score dud with two catches for 22 yards, but his usage did not suffer as he’s quietly become Carolina’s WR1 under the new coaching regime. Mingo still had nine targets to go along with the ten he had a week ago, and his price still has not crossed the $4k threshold. This week, Mingo should continue to see heavy work against Atlanta, who is a complete pass-funnel offense.

TIGHT END

Tucker Kraft (GB) | ($3,000) vs. TB

Tucker Kraft is another “Monday Night Special” who did not see a price hike due to playing after the DraftKings slate was released. Kraft has received ten targets over the last two weeks and is still priced as a reserve when, in actuality, he’s a key part of this Green Bay passing attack. Tampa Bay is even more vulnerable to the TE position than they are to WRs, allowing the third most FPPG and the second most receiving yards to the position.