Dynasty Rookie Draft Busts to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)

If there is one thing the NFL Combine does better than any other event during the offseason, it’s to make us fall in love with athletes more than football players. It is a trap – one that had fantasy managers and NFL GMs falling all over the likes of John Ross and Henry Ruggs in past years.

The combine is a spectacle and you should take the time to enjoy how incredible these athletes are but the 40-yard dash, while exciting, is rarely the most crucial factor to consider. Yet, it’s the event fans can’t wait to discuss as their reason for being in or out on a player. When evaluating the results of the 2024 combine, two players stood out, based on their athletic testing, fantasy managers should be wary of come rookie draft season.

Combine Breakouts to Avoid

Xavier Legette (WR – South Carolina)

If you have read any of my work over the past month, you know the production profile for Xavier Legette is a major red flag when grading and working through his prospect profile. Legette is the definition of an athlete who plays wide receiver rather than a wide receiver who is an athlete. When it comes to what wins in the NFL, it’s the latter. He remains a raw prospect who had an astounding 75% of his college production come during his fifth and final season at South Carolina. Outside of his final season, Legette failed to surpass 175 receiving yards in any single season. That is what we would call a real problem.

The combine was always going to be Legette’s time to shine and he did not disappoint. He posted elite speed and explosiveness metrics, even if he measured a few inches shorter than he was listed in college. He left the weekend grading out with the third-best relative athletic score (RAS), according to Kent Lee Platte, running a sub-4.4 40-yard dash (4.39) and a 40-inch vertical. Everything points to him not being overmatched physically on Sundays. However, it’s crucial to remember the combine is just one piece of the puzzle. His production profile should not be overlooked. Fantasy managers should look to avoid Legette in their rookie drafts unless you can snag him as a mid-to-late-second-round dart throw.

Isaac Guerendo (RB – Louisville)

Isaac Guerendo follows in the footsteps of Deneric Prince and Isiah Pacheco – incredible athletes with average or worse production profiles. Fantasy managers everywhere will see Pacheco’s name on this list and immediately overvalue a player like Guerendo. The Louisville product made a name for himself during the combine and boosted his draft stock. Weighing in at 220 pounds and still posting an impressive 4.33 40-yard dash time, he ended the weekend as the fifth-highest-rated running back in the RAS system dating back to 1987. In his fifth and final season (notice the trend here), Guerendo posted just over 1,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns. He was able to contribute 234 of those yards as a receiver.

Still, he enters the NFL draft as an older prospect. That, combined with his lack of wiggle and inconsistent contributions through the air, will hold him back at the next level. He saw increased production as a receive to end his collegiate career but he isn’t a natural hands catcher and runs clunky off-timed routes. He profiles as an early-down back who, even with the Combine bump, may go undrafted. Fantasy managers should not worry about wasting a pick on Guerendo until the late-third or early-fourth round, only if he finds a home via the draft.