This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. We look at wide receiver Jalen McMillan and how he will fit with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Let’s dig in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have selected Jalen McMillan of Washington with the 92nd pick of the NFL Draft.
In 2022, McMillan had 79 catches for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. He had more receptions and more touchdowns for the Huskies that year than Rome Odunze, whom the Bears just drafted ninth overall. McMillan’s production tailed off sharply in 2023 — 45 catches for 559 yards and five touchdowns — but a sprained MCL forced him to miss four games and clearly hindered him in several others.
The 6-1, 197-pound McMillan is a good-sized slot receiver who excels against zone coverage, finding openings in coverage and making himself available to his quarterback. With 4.47 speed, he’s capable of making plays downfield. McMillan is good at tracking the ball and has reliable hands.
McMillan hasn’t been particularly effective in contested-catch situations, and he isn’t especially good after the catch. McMillan dealt with numerous injuries in college. In addition to last year’s MCL sprain, he dealt with a high-ankle sprain in 2020 and a hand injury in 2021.
At best, McMillan would be the Buccaneers’ No. 3 receiver behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. McMillan’s primary competition for playing time figures to be Trey Palmer, who had 39 catches for 385 yards and three touchdowns last year as a rookie. The Buccaneers used Godwin in the slot on about 32% of his snaps last season, so there’s an opportunity for McMillan to get a healthy dose of slot snaps.
In dynasty, I have McMillan ranked WR16 among rookies and WR69 overall. He’s likely to come off the board in the late second round or early third round of 1QB rookie drafts, and in the mid-to-late third round of superflex drafts.
McMillan’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus ranking was WR94 in half-point PPR formats, and he had a predraft Underdog best-ball ADP of WR97. I’m relatively bullish on McMillan, slotting him in at WR85 for redraft.
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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
Jalen McMillan | Washington
6010/197 | RAS: 8.67
Comp: Tyler Boyd
Last spring, Tennessee WR Jalen Hyatt had Round 1 buzz throughout the draft process, while his teammate WR Cedric Tillman was seen as a mid-round afterthought. I spent the process arguing that Tillman was, in fact, the better player – the only reason people thought differently was because Tillman had gotten hurt his last year on campus, giving Hyatt a chance to break out during the underbelly of Tennessee’s schedule. The pair went back-to-back in Round 3 (and had analogous qualitative rookie seasons).
This year, Jalen McMillan is Cedric Tillman. And Ja’Lynn Polk – we’ll get to him below – is Jalen Hyatt. Go back to 2022, when McMillan was healthy. That year, McMillan and Rome Odunze were virtually indistinguishable as Washington’s WR1. In fact, McMillan had four more catches and two more TD than Odunze, while Odunze finished with 47 more yards. Polk was the clear and distant WR3 on that team.
Stats from the 20 games the last two years when Jalen McMillan/Ja’Lynn Polk completed full games together at Washington….
McMillan stats:
124 catches, 1,657 yards, 14 TD
Polk stats:
68 catches, 1,210 yards, 9 TD
Things changed this past September when McMillan suffered a knee injury against Michigan State. It would be two months before McMillan would play a full game again – he missed all or the vast majority of the eight ensuing games. McMillan attempted to gut it out and return for games against Stanford and Oregon in October. He was forced to exit quickly when the knee wasn’t reacting well to cutting.
It wouldn’t be until November 25 against Wazzu when McMillan finally did return – he clearly wasn’t 100 percent, but he still caught five balls. Washington didn’t have a choice but to make Polk the WR2 when McMillan went down. When McMillan was healthy, there was no debate.
McMillan is an efficient, reliable, high-volume big slot in the Tyler Boyd vein when he’s healthy. Why has McMillan been undersold this process? Because analysts are basing their assessments off his 2023 tape when he was hurt. This is a flawed process. Go back to the 2022 stuff and your mind will change.
McMillan’s 2022 tape shows a devilishly clever route-running slot. I particularly appreciate his work in zone, where he gets to open grass immediately and flashes to the quarterback. In man, he has a knack for baiting a defender’s balance one way to go the other. McMillan is a build-up speed guy, but he has downfield utility. He tracks the ball well and has soft hands.
McMillan’s game is built off the threat of that juice along with his ability to quickly throttle down and work back to the ball. He has good hands and regularly speared balls outside his frame in college.
He’s a capped-ceiling, slot-only guy who lacks play strength and can get jarred by contact along his route. He’s not great in contested situations for this reason, and he’s also not a huge YAC threat. But he’s going to catch a ton of balls in the NFL and keep the chains moving.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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