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Fantasy Football Draft Outlook: Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr. (2024)

With startups in full swing and fantasy football drafts around the corner, we must target the correct players that elevate our teams to champions. We elevate our fantasy football team by conducting the proper research during the offseason. Today, we will be working through some fantasy football target analysis from the AFC. We break down some situations that have changed since 2023 and explain how they affect the remaining players, as well as who we should target for our fantasy football championship-bound teams. Below we dive into one specific situation and the fantasy football draft outlook for those players involved.

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Fantasy Football Target Analysis: AFC

Jacksonville Jaguars

If Christian Kirk hadn’t gotten hurt, we would have seen a monster season from the slot receiver. Kirk was the WR19 in fantasy points per game and he drew a 22.6% target share while producing a 30.5% air-yard share. Now in 2024, he no will longer compete with Calvin Ridley and Kirk can become the alpha receiver for Trevor Lawrence once again, which should elevate him back to the land of 120+ targets in this offense.

Brian Thomas Jr. is built to become the new Calvin Ridley within this offense. However, we know it takes a rookie some time to acclimate to the play speed and the nuances of the NFL. Could he be a talented player in the NFL? Sure, but don’t expect a Calvin Ridley-like target share right away. Instead, you should expect around 90 total targets for the rookie.

So where will Gabe Davis stand if the rookie Brian Thomas has 90 total targets and Christian Kirk is looking at 120+? Well, the boom/bust Gabe Davis should end with around 60-70 targets as the third or fourth option within this offense. There will be weeks when his ability to create big plays will be amazing. However, after four catchless games in his last eight appearances of 2023, neither you nor the Jacksonville Jaguars should rely on him to become a significant component of this offense.

Evan Engram is the second option behind Christian Kirk in this offense. His priority in the offense helped catapult him to TE2 last year. He is a target machine, and it would be wise for Trevor Lawrence to continue that streak. Engram had 17 games with five or more targets and 10 with eight or more targets. Draft Engram at 71st overall if you love a hyper-targeted, athletic tight end who is a top-two option in his offense.

As for the running backs and their target share, it will be Travis Etienne’s time to shine again. Tank Bigsby is the biggest threat to his time, and we doubt that he flipped a switch in the offseason. Etienne is a running back who can garner 50+ targets while still handling the bulk of the workload in the rushing game; he deserves more praise this offseason.

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