After a productive 2024 campaign as the RB16 overall and RB19 in points per game (half-PPR) Aaron Jones has inked a two-year deal to stay with the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran running back proved he still has plenty left in the tank, making him a solid fantasy option in a Vikings offense led by (presumably) J.J. McCarthy or another quarterback to be named later.
Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Impact
2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
However, with the Vikings most likely adding a rookie in a rich 2025 NFL RB Draft class or additional veteran competition with just Ty Chandler under contract, Jones may find himself in a timeshare, limiting his ceiling.
This would be wise by the Vikings, as Jones’ workload started to accumulate down the stretch last season. The long-time Packers RB will turn 30 years old this season “fresh” off his one-and-only 300-touch season (12th in yards from scrimmage per game, 8th in touches per game – 18).
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has voiced his concern about making sure they add to the RB room to keep Jones efficient as both a rusher/receiver.
While he remains a low-end RB2/FLEX option across all formats, fantasy managers should monitor camp reports for clarity on his workload leading up to the season. The projected goal-line usage will remain extremely important because this hurt Jones badly in 2024. His overall -17.8 rushing EPA was a career low.
He was objectively the worst RB in goal-to-goal situations last season (-14.4 EPA). I can’t tell you how many times I was convinced his TD regression was going to hit just to be disappointed week after week of him getting stuffed. Jones scored nearly 6 TDs below expectation based on his workload in the Vikings offense (PFF). He led all RBs in red-zone targets, resulting in an expected output that was of a high-end fantasy RB2.
Simply stated, Jones didn’t take advantage of his touches or massive workload last season. So even though I was wrong about forecasting Jones as a touch monster in 2024, it didn’t hurt me to not have him. However, even I can admit if he scores more TDs…it’s a different conversation.
If the Vikings’ offense is above average, Jones will be a fantasy RB2 on a per-game basis. The pass-catching is another arrow in his quiver that could alleviate a lot of his rushing/scoring concerns.
Yet, I’m still not sure he is one of my main targets among the RB crop, especially with more competition being added which might not be baked into his current best ball ADP (RB26).
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