Lottery tickets in fantasy baseball are dubbed lottery tickets for a reason — their bust rate is high but their success is potentially league-altering. This article is not meant to target safe pieces with some upside. We are looking for volatile players who can hit big if either injury and/or demotion are avoided.
Most of the targets are either top prospects or former top prospects who are mostly ignored in standard drafts due to various factors. Strikeouts for hitters or walks for pitchers are always tricky to navigate. Injuries are even trickier. However, if we want fantasy baseball home runs instead of doubles, we must swing big and accept the inevitable whiffs.
Fantasy Baseball Lottery Tickets
The former first-round pick is healthy and potentially batting atop the order for a solid Brewers offense. Garrett Mitchell is buried in drafts at the moment due to his lengthy injury history. Since 2021, Mitchell has dealt with a muscle strain in his knee, an oblique strain, a broken finger and a shoulder subluxation that required surgery.
Lottery tickets in fantasy baseball are dubbed lottery tickets for a reason — their bust rate is high but their success is potentially league-altering. This article is not meant to target safe pieces with some upside. We are looking for volatile players who can hit big if either injury and/or demotion are avoided.
Most of the targets are either top prospects or former top prospects who are mostly ignored in standard drafts due to various factors. Strikeouts for hitters or walks for pitchers are always tricky to navigate. Injuries are even trickier. However, if we want fantasy baseball home runs instead of doubles, we must swing big and accept the inevitable whiffs.
Fantasy Baseball Lottery Tickets
The former first-round pick is healthy and potentially batting atop the order for a solid Brewers offense. Garrett Mitchell is buried in drafts at the moment due to his lengthy injury history. Since 2021, Mitchell has dealt with a muscle strain in his knee, an oblique strain, a broken finger and a shoulder subluxation that required surgery.
Nevertheless, Mitchell appears to be at full strength this spring as he has a .286 average, one home run and two stolen bases through 13 games. The 39% strikeout rate is alarming yet not too far off his career 34.2% rate. Mitchell will strike out often but with his defense, walk rate, power and speed, he should remain in the lineup every day. There is the risk of a platoon if his career 103 wRC+ vs left-handed pitchers is a fugazi. However, eight home runs and 11 stolen bases with a .255 batting average is promising in Mitchell’s first season back from shoulder surgery.
The Rays did not get any production from Christopher Morel after trading for him last season nor is he hitting well in spring training. Regardless, Morel has fantasy baseball upside between his power and the Rays’ new home park. Morel has 63 career home runs in 372 career games. He hit just three in 49 games with Tampa last season after mashing 18 in 103 games with the Cubs.
The super-utility man is not going to flash a high batting average (career .223) but he can provide some steals and plenty of runs/RBI. Morel’s 2024 strikeout rate (26%) was the lowest of his career while his walk rate was the highest (10%). Unfortunately, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was an egregious .233 — far below his career .312 heading into the season. With some BABIP regression and park boost, we could see Morel return to a very good fantasy baseball asset in the best offense of his career.
The Red Sox rookie is no secret. This is one of the best prospects in baseball who has been to every level of the Minors and dominated. Roman Anthony is performing well in spring training and pushing for a roster spot as the Red Sox have placed Masataka Yoshida on the injured list (IL) and will wait to see how Wilyer Abreu performs upon his return from a severe illness.
The top prospect’s upside is immense and only boosted by a favorable home park with a solid offense. Anthony posted 18 HR, 21 SB, 93 runs and a .401 wOBA in 119 games last season between Double-A and Triple-A. His slash-line this spring is modest but a 14.6% walk rate and 22.2% strikeout rate is impressive at such a young age. If Anthony starts the season in Boston, he could be one of the few “league-winners” at his near-pick 300 average draft position (ADP) in fantasy baseball.
The Giants’ young right-hander is scorching in spring. Hayden Birdsong has accumulated 18 strikeouts through 12 innings with no walks (but two batters hit). With no earned runs allowed in spring training and five innings pitched in his most recent outing, we could see Birdsong open the season as San Francisco’s fifth starting pitcher in the rotation.
Birdsong’s 2024 was not good, yet it was promising. Birdsong struck out 27.9% of the batters he faced but walked 13.7%. If he can cut that walk rate this season without adjusting much else, we could come to consider him a must-have starting pitcher given his home park’s favorable conditions.
Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach have emerged as high-end starters in recent seasons thanks to Atlanta’s pitching factory. AJ Smith-Shawver may be the next big-time starting pitcher if his spring training performance is foreshadowing his 2025 season.
Smith-Shawver has tasted the big leagues with 29.2 innings since 2023. His average fastball velocity jumped nearly two miles per hour last season but in a small sample of 4.1 innings. The Braves have two open spots in the rotation as they lost Charlie Morton this offseason and will place Strider on IL to begin the year.
While Smith-Shawver’s peripheral stats and ERA indicators like xFIP and SIERA are poor throughout his abbreviated MLB career, we must remember he pushed his way up at 20 years old. Most talented starters are 22 or 23 when they first touch a Major League mound. With another year of experience under his belt and high-end development in Atlanta, we could see Smith-Shawver make a name for himself in a loaded rotation.
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