This year’s NFL Draft rookie class looks set to shake up the running back landscape in a way we haven’t seen for years. While there is opportunity in ambiguity, sometimes the downside isn’t worth the risk. Here are three running backs to avoid if you’re currently diving into drafts.
Running Backs to Avoid
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WSH)
The Commanders gave Brian Robinson Jr. every opportunity to succeed in 2024, averaging 18.5 touches per game over the opening four games, along with three touchdowns. Unfortunately for Robinson truthers, it never really improved from there. Robinson finished as a top-24 back nine times in PPR formats, but never once cracked the top 10.
Robinson also only managed to make the top-24 just once without scoring a touchdown, showing how much he relied on those to increase his fantasy value. While scoring touchdowns is no bad thing, they tend not to be predictive year to year. The Commanders are an ascending team and need to find ways not to put too much pressure on Jayden Daniels.
A better running game would be a big part of that. Robinson managed four runs of 20+ yards last year, which ranked 22nd. He also ranked 24th in runs of 10+ yards with 21. Robinson is a fine player, but he has no ceiling, and this year’s rookie running backs have plenty of ceiling. It would be very surprising if the Commanders don’t look to get younger and more explosive at the position.
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson looks like an ideal fit for the #Commanders. I profiled his skillset and why he would fit so well in Washington. Link below pic.twitter.com/taHX2y57NP
— Mark Bullock (@MarkBullockNFL) April 7, 2025
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYJ)
When your backfield competition is only Devin Singletary, there are always going to be chances to earn touches. For Singletary’s reliability, he doesn’t have much juice. One thing Tyrone Tracy Jr. does have is juice. A total of 30.4% of Tracy’s runs went for five or more yards, while Singletary’s rate was 24.8%. Where Tracy lost the credit he earned was in giving the ball away.
Tracy had five fumbles last year, with only Breece Hall (six) and Rhamondre Stevenson (seven) having more. Tracy’s average draft position (ADP) is currently around pick 75 in early best ball contests, ahead of the likes of Kaleb Johnson, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard and Jaylen Warren. This is also an area of the draft where rookie wide receivers go off the board with Luther Burden, Travis Hunter and Emeka Egbuka all available. It feels likely that one of them could prove a stronger value.
Singletary and Tracy saw their workloads continuously be volatile in 2024, with Tracy’s opportunity share as high as 92% in Week 14, but otherwise below 70% in seven of the last 10 games as the coaching staff figured it out as they went along. It’s hard to draft Tracy if you want consistent touches. If you are already stacked at running back and want explosivity, it’ll come at passing on a wide receiver once again.
UNC RB Omarion Hampton is visiting the Giants today per @RapSheet.
Hampton had 3759 scrimmage yards & 33 TD’s the last two seasons pic.twitter.com/j16uQ9kujn
— Giants Nation Show (@GiantsNationPod) April 10, 2025
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
It’s getting pretty repetitive for D’Andre Swift at this point. Join a new team, look dynamic and fantasy-relevant for a while, then fade away and fall out of favor. Swift now also faces the challenge of playing for Ben Johnson, who was the offensive coordinator in Detroit when Swift was deemed a surplus to requirements and shipped out.
Swift ranked 41st in percentage of runs to go for five or more yards among running backs with 100+ rushing attempts last year. Swift also wasn’t someone the Bears felt they could rely upon around the goal line, which has often been the tale of his career. Swift saw only 41% of running back touches inside the 5-yard line, which ranked 31st among backs with 100+ attempts.
There wasn’t even enough value in the receiving game to make up for this, with Swift ranking 22nd in target share among running backs. Swift had four top-12 PPR weekly finishes but also had eight below RB24 and nine that saw him return single-digit PPR points. The Bears continue to get linked with highly sought-after rookie backs in the first couple of rounds of the draft. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Swift have minimal involvement for the Bears this year.
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