This is ‘The Watchlist.’
This column is designed to help you monitor and pick up fantasy baseball players in the coming weeks and months. Whether they’re waiver wire or trade targets, these are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity or trade target.
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
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- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Rest-of-Season Projections
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire & Trade Targets
Using underlying and advanced metrics, ‘The Watchlist’ will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards later from your pickups.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves + holds league or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA.
They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and a different kind of player entirely. The point is they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
Tyler Locklear (1B – SEA)
The Seattle Mariners, who probably could’ve used lineup reinforcements in the first place, are facing an extended stretch without starting outfielder Victor Robles, who looks set to be sidelined with a left shoulder dislocation.
Robles enjoyed a breakout season for the Mariners last season, hitting .307 with a .381 on-base percentage (OBP), four home runs and 34 stolen bases in 295 plate appearances in 91 games. That time was split between the Mariners and Washington Nationals, but just 14 games, 33 plate appearances and four stolen bases came with the Nationals.
The outfielder was batting .273 with a .283 on-base percentage and three stolen bases in 46 plate appearances this season, appearing regularly as the Mariners’ leadoff hitter.
How exactly Seattle will go about replacing Robles in the lineup for the duration of his stint on the injured list (IL) remains to be seen. But one way the club could go about adding some production to the lineup at some point would be to move first baseman Luke Raley to the outfield on a more regular basis and call up first base prospect Tyler Locklear.
Of course, that’s entirely speculative on my part, but Locklear, long one of the franchise’s better-hitting prospects, made his Major League debut last season and is on a tear to start the year with the franchise’s Triple-A affiliate, hitting .323 with a .400 on-base percentage, a home run and a .194 ISO in 35 plate appearances at the Minor League’s highest level.
Of course, the Mariners also have Rowdy Tellez on the roster, but Locklear might be the highest upside option, speculatively speaking. He might not hit for a high average — and has more upside as a power hitter than as a contact hitter — but with plenty of raw power and a potentially fantasy-friendly spot in the lineup (if he is called up) due to the American League West club’s lack of lineup depth, Locklear has an intriguing fantasy ceiling.
Rafael Montero (RP – ATL)
Let’s get this out of the way: Rafael Montero struggled mightily on the mound in 2024. He pitched to a 4.70 ERA and a 6.40 FIP in 41 relief appearances spanning 38.1 innings for the Houston Astros.
The 34-year-old added a win and 10 holds in the process, though his strikeout rate (14%) and walk rate (11.6%) were a little too close. Statistically, it was decidedly not ideal.
That being said, Montero has been much better this season. It’s a tiny sample size, but entering play Tuesday, he was sporting a 41.7% whiff rate through three appearances and four innings for the Astros, adding five strikeouts against two walks allowed while pitching to a 4.50 ERA and a 2.07 FIP.
So, it’s a tiny sample size. Tiny.
Montero could be stepping into a significant fantasy opportunity, particularly in leagues where holds are part of the scoring.
The veteran was traded to Atlanta on Tuesday in a deal sending Montero and cash to the National League East club for a player to be named later.
Atlanta entered play Wednesday tied for the fifth-worst collective bullpen fWAR (-0.1) in the league. Only seven teams’ bullpens have a FIP higher than Atlanta’s at the moment.
Furthermore, just three teams have fewer holds than the National League East franchise this season.
In other words, a high-leverage role early for the veteran reliever certainly isn’t out of the question. If he keeps missing bats at this rate, he’ll be a must-add in leagues where holds are part of the scoring.
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Ben Rosener is a fantasy baseball writer whose work has appeared on the digital pages of FantasyPros, Pitcher List and Bleacher Report. He also writes about fantasy baseball for his own Substack page, Ben Rosener’s Fantasy Baseball Help Substack. He only refers to himself in the third person for bios.
