It’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football busts. Finding out which players may heavily underperform expectations takes far more than just comparing their final ranking last year with their current ADP or consensus rank. That’s because injuries and changes to a player’s role or situation can have huge impacts on every player’s season-long output or final ranking. Injury-prone players or athletes who start the season hurt are always a massive risk, especially in the early rounds. Plus, changes like the loss of a reliable quarterback or the potential for a younger player to steal a veteran’s job are risks to account for when evaluating every skill player across the football landscape. Inconsistent, boom-or-bust athletes who produced the majority of their fantasy points in a few games are another trap that ensnares plenty of fantasy managers each year.
Our featured pundits know exactly what to look for when identifying potential busts. So to help you begin your research, they’ve each listed an RB and WR they think have the biggest odds of falling short of expectations. Read on below to see who you may want to think twice about selecting and why.
Early Bust Candidates: Wide Receivers
What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
“Terry McLaurin was excellent in 2024, finishing at WR7 in PPR points. His 15.8% TD rate is a lock to regress, though. And his catch rate (70.6%) will be tough to match. McLaurin’s volume could also dip following the arrival of Deebo Samuel.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
“Nico Collins may wind up being a fantasy football bust as the WR6 in 2025, despite his 2024 WR6 finish at 14.9 points per game because his production relied heavily on a career-high 2.86 yards per route run, a metric that may regress with increased defensive attention following Stefon Diggs‘ departure and the health of Tank Dell (torn ACL). His 1,006 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2024 came across just 12 games. Still, his 99 targets (8.25 per game) could shrink if Tank Dell recovers fully late in 2025, along with the addition of Christian Kirk, and the Texans distribute passes more evenly, as they averaged only 33.6 attempts per game in 2024. Collins’ efficiency dipped late in 2024, with his yards per catch falling from 16.2 in 2023 to 14.8, hinting at a possible decline in big-play ability that fantasy managers banking on WR6 status expect. The Texans’ run-heavy shift, averaging 29.1 rushing attempts per game in 2024, might limit passing volume, capping Collins at around 100-110 targets, well below the 120-plus elite WRs typically need. Finally, his injury history – missing five games in 2024 – raises durability concerns, limiting opportunities on the field and keeping him far from WR6 territory if the injury bug were to strike again.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
“This is going to be a flaming hot take, and I think he can still be a good receiver for fantasy this year, but someone that I would tamper expectations on is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Ben Johnson is gone, and he made a lot of things easy for the offense. In 2021, St. Brown averaged 13.4 FPPG when Johnson was the passing game coordinator and not the offensive coordinator. Granted, it was his rookie season, and Johnson was still involved in the offense. St. Brown is ranked as the WR5 right now, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he were a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 this season.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
“Amon-Ra St. Brown is too good to be a full-on bust (barring injury, of course), but I worry about the house-of-cards fundamentals underpinning his WR3 finish last year. St. Brown averaged 10.3 targets per game in 2023 but only 8.3 targets per game in 2024. The sharp reduction in volume was mitigated by spikes in catch rate (72.6% in 2023; 81.6% in 2024) and touchdown rate (he scored a TD on 6.1% of his targets in 2023, and on 8.5% of his targets in 2024). The emergence of Jameson Williams as a major contributor to the Detroit offense will keep St. Brown’s target rate from returning to past levels, and the departure of play-caller Ben Johnson could lead to an overall downturn for the Lions’ offense. St. Brown won’t flop, but he might not be the blue-chip asset everyone is counting on him to be.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
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