Fantasy baseball is all about the long game. Players you drafted early who struggle are not suddenly untalented bums who should be dropped to the waiver wire at a moment’s notice.
There is a method to the madness of this game and baseball as a whole. Slumps happen, and when a talented player gets out of one, they typically do so in a glorious manner.
Fantasy Baseball 10 Burning Questions
We have to be patient unless something substantive, like injury or age concerns, becomes evident. Without either of the two, we are merely a month into a grueling, 162-game season, which can only be conquered through a diligent process.
This week’s ’10 Burning Questions’ are below. For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
Crazy as it may sound, Trent Grisham is the answer. The former top-100 draft pick is back in our good graces after several tumultuous fantasy seasons. Grisham is off to arguably his best start ever and should continue performing well in a potent Yankees lineup.
The talented outfielder is playing almost every day and leading off against right-handed pitching. This premier lineup spot ahead of American League MVP Aaron Judge is perfect for protecting Grisham in the order. Grisham’s Statcast metrics back up his hot start, and there is fantasy upside, too, if he begins stealing bases again.
Jasson Dominguez can be dropped soon in leagues if he continues to underperform. The Martian was worth a shot at his cost in drafts, but between shaky playing time and mediocre results thus far, we can move on until he shows consistent signs of life at the plate.
Yes. The Dodgers’ rookie is a potential fantasy goldmine due to his speed. Hyeseong Kim stole 13 bases in 28 Triple-A games this season and already has two in five Major League games. He is unlikely to hit above the bottom third of the Dodgers’ order, given their depth and his lack of power. However, Kim could play every day thanks to his defensive versatility.
The Dodgers’ roster is in flux at the moment after the injuries to Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman, but even upon their arrival, Kim should remain in the lineup if he continues hitting well.
3.) Will Kenley Jansen remain the Angels’ closer?
The Angels are likely in no rush to replace Kenley Jansen after one awful outing. The veteran closer has an egregious ERA (5.79) and poor peripherals, but this is the result of a six-earned run appearance on May 2nd. This inning was the only one in which Jansen is credited with an earned run all season. He has seven saves and zero blown saves, which is much more important to franchises this early in the season than ERA.
With Ben Joyce suffering a setback to his already injured shoulder, Ryan Zeferjahn is the logical successor if Jansen misses time or struggles more. However, Zeferjahn has allowed runs in five separate outings since his lone save on April 1st. The Angels could opt for another veteran like Hector Neris, who has plenty of ninth-inning experience.
4.) Who should we buy low?
Expect Bryan Reynolds to bounce back soon. The Pirates are in an odd situation at the moment with their mediocre overall offense and managerial firing, but Reynolds is one of the steadier bats in fantasy baseball. His .219 batting average and .351 slugging percentage are well below the .261 expected average and .509 expected slugging shown on Baseball Savant.
Reynolds has not been a complete zero this season due to his five home runs and three stolen bases, but his batting average, runs and RBI should catch up soon. Pittsburgh appears to want production this season and could make a move to bolster a lineup led by him and the supernova Oneil Cruz.
5.) Who should we sell high?
Shota Imanaga has been the luckiest starting pitcher this season. The 2024 all-star is struggling to strike batters out and is getting away with poor pitching performances weekly.
Imanaga has a 2.82 ERA backed up by a 4.60 xERA, 4.76 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA. Every peripheral is well below average and concerning. He similarly outperformed his peripherals in 2024, but with an ERA much closer than this season’s.
Yes, Imanaga is on the injured list (IL) at the moment. Upon his return, though, look to move him. The perception about his injury should not be too negative, given that it was a hamstring issue rather than an arm issue.
According to the Braves, Spencer Strider threw a bullpen session recently and feels good after receiving a Platelet-Rich Plasma (PRP) shot in his hamstring to speed up the recovery process. Strider’s injury was deemed a Grade 1 strain, but given how much mass there is in his thighs, it could be tricky to navigate an injury like that.
Nevertheless, Strider is on track to return by the end of the month and may only need one rehab start at most to feel comfortable. The Atlanta ace is now further removed from his 2024 elbow surgery and should be fine upon return, given that this was his first recorded hamstring injury. Try to buy the potential fantasy SP1.
Not yet despite his recent stretch. A 4.15 ERA backed by a 4.24 xERA, 4.57 xFIP, and 4.69 SIERA is ugly. Bryce Miller’s season thus far is mediocre, but there is some hope for the young Mariners starting pitcher. The silver lining is that Miller has pitched in some tough environments this season across the past few starts. Pitching in Boston, Cincinnati and Sacramento is not easy.
Luckily, Miller gets the Blue Jays at home, the Padres in Petco Park and the Astros in Daikin Park over his next three starts. The Padres are the toughest offense of this bunch, ranking 15th versus right-handed pitching.
After these two, he heads home to face Minnesota and Washington, who are no better than average offensively. Miller’s 8.7% K-BB needs to double if we want to see him return to fantasy ace form, which could occur across his next few starts.
8.) Will Camilo Doval regain the Giants’ closer role from Ryan Walker?
Maybe. The Giants’ closing situation is odd at the moment. His 6.08 ERA is egregious and a result of recent outings rather than a cold, early start. Walker has seven saves to Doval’s five, but Doval has blown two save opportunities to Walker’s one.
Unfortunately for Doval hopefuls, he is performing far worse than Ryan Walker in general. Walker’s 18.3% K-BB and 2.90 SIERA exceed Doval’s 10.6% K-BB and 3.78 SIERA. Unless Walker blows multiple save chances in a row, he will continue to lead the team in ninth-inning opportunities and lap Walker in saves by the end of this season.
9.) What is Nick Kurtz‘s upside?
Very high. In theory, Kurtz could be Kyle Schwarber with a better average… sadly, it may not be revealed for a while if he continues this disastrous start to his MLB career. Kurtz is only 22 years old and deserves a mulligan for his first 49 plate appearances, but his lack of quality contact, mixed with a 38.8% strikeout rate, is concerning.
Kurtz should continue receiving opportunities to play regularly in the Athletics’ lineup, given his pedigree and how early it still is in his call to the Majors. Yet, we can take action sooner rather than later if this skid sustains.
Kurtz is not the first skilled power hitter to struggle in his adjustment to the big leagues, nor will he be the last. Do not drop him yet (thanks to the friendly confines of Sutter Health Park), but shorten the rope after this week.
We are getting closer to the inevitable Jac Caglianone call-up. Whether it comes closer to June than September is to be determined, but we are assuredly getting him in the bigs this year. Caglianone is taking reps in the outfield and preparing to make an impact for a middling Royals offense.
Through 29 games in Double-A, Caglianone is slashing .330/.409/.598. This is 74% better than the league average in the toughest Minor League environment to produce offense. He may require a short Triple-A stint to continue proving himself, but it will not be long if this torrid pace keeps up.
I expect a June call at this point, and if your fantasy team needs the juice and has the extra roster spot, picking him up off the waiver wire in a few weeks would be wise.
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