Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags on as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what’s important, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
We are still early in the season when people will make bad decisions in terms of trades because of small samples. Hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition. Sometimes, underlying numbers aren’t showing up in the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer to help with values.
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Rest-of-Season Projections
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Brenton Doyle has struggled this season, hitting .218/.275/.364 with four home runs and four stolen bases in 120 plate appearances. He has had some off-the-field family matters that might be a distraction for him right now, so why buy low?
Doyle is pretty unlucky in the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) department with a .256 average this season, compared to .302 for his career. His xBA is .271. He is hitting the ball harder than he has in his career and his underlying contact numbers are in line with last season. I think he will be fine. Try to acquire him at a discount.
Salvador Perez (C, 1B, DH – KC)
Salvador Perez has hit .241/.286/.380 with just two home runs this season. However, he has been unlucky and has his best underlying contact numbers since 2018. His xBA is .322 and his xSLG is .592.
Perez is hitting the ball hard, but his HR/FB rate is just 4% when it’s been 14% for his career. Take the discount.
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP – ATL)
Spencer Schwellenbach has been rocked in his last two starts, and some people are beginning to worry if regression has finally come for him.
However, Schwellenbach is still exhibiting great control and good command, and he has a 3.35 SIERA. He has been tinkering a bit with his fastball, which I feel confident about him being able to work around. The Braves hurler is a stud pitcher. If the manager in your league is worried, take advantage of their cowardice.
I wrote about Chris Sale earlier this year, advocating for people to buy low on him. He started rough, throwing 23.1 innings with a 6.17 ERA, but it was a lot of bad luck with a huge BABIP and a lower-than-expected strand rate.
Since then, Sale has had three straight good outings, with the last two being elite. He looks to be back on track, so this may be the last time you will be able to buy low on him.
Sell High
Griffin Canning has been great, throwing 36 innings with a 2.50 ERA and 37 strikeouts. He has won five of his seven starts. However, the underlying numbers do not back up what he has been doing. He has an 87% strand rate, which is 17% higher than last year and 12% higher than his career rate.
Canning’s xERA is 3.97, and his current WHIP is 1.39, which is backed up by a 10% walk rate and an above-average zone contact. He is getting extremely lucky, and the regression monster will strike soon.
Kyle Stowers has been on fire, hitting .303/.375/.504 with six home runs and two stolen bases in 137 plate appearances. He has been hitting the ball hard, but his underlying contact skills are bad. Stowers has a 74% zone contact rate, which is the fourth worst in all of baseball.
Stowers is striking out at a 29% clip, which lines up with his bad contact and swinging strike rate being the third worst in baseball. The stat line could crater. There isn’t a lot of support to begin with in Miami.
David Peterson has thrown 38.1 innings over seven starts with a 3.52 ERA and 36 strikeouts this season. However, his xERA is 4.45, and he allows a ton of hard contact.
Peterson has the third-highest zone contact of any qualified starter, and his swinging strike rate is the worst of his career. He has a two-start week this week, which begins with the Pirates and ends with the Yankees, so I would try and sell him in between those matchups.
Gabriel Arias (2B, SS, 3B – CLE)
Speaking of terrible underlying contact numbers, Gabriel Arias has the worst zone contact and swinging strike rate of any qualified hitter in baseball. He is only hitting .287 because of his bloated .363 BABIP, which is why his xBA is just .241.
While Arias has a good max exit velocity, his underlying power numbers are poor otherwise. He will play regularly for the Guardians, but he won’t be very good for long.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn
