NBA Playoffs DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (5/11)

Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you had a profitable weekend and are enjoying these NBA playoffs as much as us. If you’ve read any of my previous articles, you’ve heard this spiel before, but if you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping.

That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. With only a two-game playoff slate tonight, these tactics might not be as important, but you never know. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – NYK)

DraftKings: $7,500
FanDuel: $7,700

To start the night, we’re going with the Knicks center. It’s only a two-game slate, but Karl-Anthony Towns is at an all-time low price and still projects for around 45 fantasy points. He should see the court for 35 minutes or so. Despite Boston’s defense, Towns’ price is simply too low to pass up.

Towns has played Boston seven times now this year, averaging 40 fantasy points a game in those matches. Playing to his average would be ideal, but he’s going to play additional minutes, and his usage has risen to above 27% in the playoffs. Kristaps Porzingis still seems to be dealing with an illness, so the Kentucky product will likely get some mismatches and is set up well for tonight.

Jaylen Brown (SG, SF – BOS)

DraftKings: $7,200
FanDuel: $7,600

It’s tempting to go with Jayson Tatum as a core play, but I’m going to keep him somewhere else in this article and go with the slightly lesser-rostered Jaylen Brown. His ceiling may not be as high, but he’s cheaper and can fill guard or forward slots within your lineups.

He’s shown he is capable of 60-point efforts, which is why I like him more as a leverage option compared to Tatum. On a two-game slate, you have to get creative, and it’s not like Brown is low-rostered, quite the opposite, actually, but his ceiling game at $7,200 is what I’m chasing over an expensive Tatum ceiling output.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Jayson Tatum (SF, PF – BOS)

DraftKings: $9,700
FanDuel: $10,000

I know this game is in New York, where the Knicks have a series lead, but let’s be honest – the Celtics are the better team. Tatum continues to be a high-usage play for Boston, and he’s seeing the court for 40 minutes a night.

Tatum’s shooting has been off, and frankly, he is taking some poor looks. In the playoffs, Tatum has yet to go below 40 fantasy points, and his floor has been 46. He hasn’t gone below 30 in months. Tatum is one of the consistently safest plays in the NBA. On a two-game slate, he’s going to be nearly 40% rostered because of the opportunity.

Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK)

DraftKings: $8,200
FanDuel: $8,500

It’s easy to go with the two most popular options, but that’s what cash games are for. Jalen Brunson is a coin flip to be rostered tonight, so you’re not going to be shocking anyone with your head-to-heads and 50/50s.

Brunson has only gone for less than 30 fantasy points once these playoffs, and he’s scored fewer than 30 twice since the beginning of February. The Knicks guard might get some Villanova-pope magic and should see the court for 40 minutes with his usual 30% usage rate. That’s good enough for me with any player, but we’ve seen how he can score over 50 fantasy points at any given time.

Jimmy Butler (PF – GSW)

DraftKings: $8,500
FanDuel: $9,300

With Steph Curry out, Butler has become Obi-Wan Kenobi as the last hope for Golden State. His usage has shot up to 28% over the last three games, and he’s averaging nearly 40 minutes a night in that time frame.

It’s a small sample size, but everyone else will also love him here with nearly 50% rostership in DraftKings lineups. It’s tough to watch the offense, but someone has to score, and Butler has gone over 50 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. He’s projected for less than that tonight, but 50 points is his ceiling, and I am buying in today.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Payton Pritchard (PG, SG – BOS)

DraftKings: $4,500
FanDuel: $4,300

Payton Pritchard is coming off a ceiling output and is still only projected to be 10% rostered tonight. We’ve seen how he can cook, and Boston seems to need to lean on offense more for getting dubs. I project him around for 23 fantasy points tonight. There’s a path where Boston has figured out their game, and Pritchard plays closer to 30 minutes rather than his projected 25.

Pritchard won’t have a lineup-winning performance, but he offers solid leverage with how little he’s rostered on the two-game slate, so having a ceiling output puts you ahead of the field with his cheap price.

Jonathan Kuminga (PF – GSW)

DraftKings: $5,200
FanDuel: $5,100

This is more of a DraftKings GPP play and a FanDuel cash play because the Warriors forward will be much higher rostered on FanDuel. If he’s announced as a starter, Kuminga’s rostership will likely shoot up, but right now it’s looking to be around 30%, and I’ll be over the field.

The last time out, we saw Kuminga’s ceiling — 46 fantasy points. We’ve also seen him play seven minutes and barely tally anything. That’s what you get with GPP plays. With no Curry, who knows who is going to score for the Warriors, but getting it right is insane leverage over the field. My bet is another solid outing for the Golden State forward.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Brandin Podziemski (PG, SG – GSW)

DraftKings: $5,300
FanDuel: $5,900

Without Curry, the usage for the Warriors has been all over the place. I’m guessing it will be around a 16-17% usage rate tonight for Brandin Podziemski. He will see a minutes bump, as he played 39 minutes in the last game.

This is the lower total of the two games today, but Podziemski can still get up over 30 fantasy points tonight, as he did Thursday. The Warriors have their backs against the wall, but at home, the Golden State guard is set up for success and could be the best value option tonight.

Naz Reid (C, PF – MIN)

DraftKings: $4,600
FanDuel: $4,900

Looking at rostership projections, it seems Naz Reid will be rostered in roughly a third of lineups, but this play feels scarier than it should. He’s playing at a higher clip in the playoffs and is a nice filler at sub-$5,000.

When Reid is hot, he makes his presence known, and that’s what I’m hoping for here. Like previous players mentioned, the cheaper options having ceiling outputs set you up nicely with your spend-up options. Of course, it’s not a guarantee, and Minnesota-Golden State has a total of 200 points, so it’s not like there’s much to go around. But at his price tag, I will be over the field on Reid tonight.

Buddy Hield (SG, SF – GSW)

DraftKings: $4,700
FanDuel: $5,300

Regardless of the usage shakeup sans Curry, Buddy Hield still profiles well with dual guard/forward status at an under $5,000 price tag on DraftKings. He’s playing over 30 minutes (likely) and has shown a capacity to go over 50 points. Ideally, Hield gets over 40, but even projecting him around 27 still positions him as one of the best value options on today’s slate.