Even after more than two full months of the Major League Baseball and fantasy baseball seasons, it’s important to look for players who could experience positive and negative regression.
With so few games and plate appearances for each player through 11 weeks, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact. Sometimes we think a player is what he has been after more than two months, but that is far from the truth.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Even after more than two full months of the Major League Baseball and fantasy baseball seasons, it’s important to look for players who could experience positive and negative regression.
With so few games and plate appearances for each player through 11 weeks, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact. Sometimes we think a player is what he has been after more than two months, but that is far from the truth.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
Last week, this piece correctly predicted positive regression for Cody Bellinger (.333/.385/.542 with one homer and two steals over the last week) and negative regression for Ernie Clement (.200/.231/.280 with zero home runs in the past seven days). Regression, whether positive or negative, doesn’t always occur quickly, but the signs are often clear.
With the first 11 weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and still about 100 games to go for almost every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the past week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.
(Stats up to date through June 9th)
Players Due for Positive Regression
Elly De La Cruz (SS – CIN)
It hasn’t been the best of weeks for one of the most electric players in baseball. Elly De La Cruz is hitting just .235 with zero home runs and a 26% strikeout rate over his last seven days after hitting three bombs and stealing multiple bases the week before.
But that’s how quickly things can change for someone with the elite skills that De La Cruz possesses. So this isn’t just an endorsement for short-term positive regression, but also for the entire season.
Yes, De La Cruz was unlucky over the last week with an askew batting average and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). But underneath all of that, the skills remain in place for some significant improvement as the summer heats up.
De La Cruz also has a 26% walk rate over his last 25 plate appearances, so he is seeing the ball very well. His hard-hit and barrel rates are both two percentage points higher than in 2024, when De La Cruz blasted 25 home runs to go along with 67 steals.
Add in the fact that De La Cruz plays in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball (Great American Ball Park) and the hottest months are still to come, this could easily turn into a 35/35 season for the Reds shortstop, with the potential for a lot more.
Teoscar Hernandez (OF – LAD)
Since Teoscar Hernandez returned from the injury list on May 25th, it has not been pretty for the Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder. Since that time, he has been hitting .164/.215/.274 with just one home run and one stolen base.
It’s certainly possible that his groin injury is lingering and Hernandez is not fully healthy, but he has only missed one game since he returned, so we have to assume the team thinks he is good to go.
Over the last two weeks, Hernandez has had a comically low .176 BABIP, which is more than 100 points below the league average. That is some severe bad luck, and it’s dragging down all rate and counting stats with it.
On the season, Hernandez has lowered his strikeout rate from over 28% in 2024 to just 22% this season. His fly ball rate is identical to last year, and his line drive rate is up.
Assuming he is healthy, this is a profile that screams bad luck, and based on Hernandez’s track record, should improve as he gets further and further away from his groin injury.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Austin Riley (3B – ATL)
Austin Riley had a very disappointing campaign in 2024. He missed 50 games due to injury. He dropped 25 points in batting average compared to 2023, and his home runs plummeted from 37 the year before to just 19 last year. It’s been wonderful to see his resurgence in 2024.
Riley is hitting .285/.337/.457 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI. He is trending towards another 30-home run, 90-RBI season, especially after hitting .355 with a .548 slugging percentage in the last seven days.
However, some definite cracks in the armor give me a lot of pause on all the Riley hype from the last two weeks. First, it has been more than a week since he has drawn a walk. He’s hitting just fine, so that’s not been a huge problem, but the strikeout rate is a concerning 26% as well.
That level of imbalance is a recipe for bad news at the plate later on. His BABIP is also incredibly high — .455 in that span, a number that most every player in Major League Baseball can not maintain.
Riley’s hard-hit rate and exit velocity are down this year, even compared to his miserable 2024. Last week may be a major step in the right direction, but tread carefully if you are deploying Riley or looking to acquire him via a trade.
Spencer Steer (1B, OF – CIN)
One Cincinnati Reds player who I do not believe will remain on their current trajectory is first baseman/outfielder Spencer Steer. Steer started the season miserably, hitting just .174/.248/.272 in March/April with two home runs and one stolen base.
In May, that improved to .270/.336/.390 with eight extra base hits and a handful of steals. Last week, Steer looked like an All-Star with a .316 average and a 381 on-base percentage (OBP). But under the hood, there are some signs this resurgence is built on a house of cards about to come crashing down soon.
First, Steer’s BABIP of .545 over the last week is the second-highest in the league (behind Aaron Judge), so he has been incredibly lucky in the batting average department. Second, his strikeout rate is over 38% while his walk rate is just 9%. That’s clear evidence he is not seeing the ball well or swinging at too many pitches outside the zone.
On the season as a whole, Steer’s first-pitch strike rate is up, his contact rate is down, and his swing rate on pitches outside the zone is up. All of these are clear signs that this short-term success is not set up for long-term sustainability.
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