One tactic has been polarizing in best ball, more than any other over the years, even more than Zero RB, and that tactic is Robust RB. This best ball draft strategy typically sees a drafter take three running backs in the first four picks and end up with no more than five running backs in total after dedicating many resources elsewhere to make up for such a focused start.
The idea of loading up on running backs early stems from the fact that top-end running backs are most likely to have historically good seasons. Outside of the occasional Kyren Williams-type season, it’s rare to find top-five running back production further down the board without speculating substantially.
Best Ball Draft Strategy: Robust RB (Fantasy Football)
The types of running backs who finish as difference makers have three things in common:
- Elite volume
- Pass-catching upside
- Goal-line work
Outside of the top few rounds, it’s rare for a running back to tick those boxes.
Historical Success
Many years ago, this seemed like a clear path to success, but as the NFL moved away from workhorse running backs and became increasingly enamored with committees, it became harder and harder for this system to work.
The modern era of best ball kicked into gear when Underdog came onto the scene. Their Best Ball Mania contest has become an excellent one to measure success in, as they make the data easy to access, and the sample size is very large.
Year to year, we see fluctuations around how micro-strategies perform, with player performance massively impacting how things turn out, but below is a year-by-year breakdown of how Robust RB performed since 2021.
Advance rates are measured at a baseline rate of 16.7%, given we have 12 teams in a draft, 8.3% represents one team, and two teams progress from each draft.
| Number of RBs |
2021 Advance Rate |
2022 Advance Rate |
2023 Advance Rate |
2024 Advance Rate |
| 3 |
12.60% |
10.60% |
14.30% |
27.50% |
| 4 |
13.20% |
11.80% |
14.50% |
29.80% |
| 5 |
13.90% |
12.10% |
15.50% |
27.70% |
| 6 |
13.90% |
10.70% |
14.70% |
25.10% |
| 7 |
15.30% |
9.90% |
13.90% |
22.00% |
| 8 |
8.60% |
6.50% |
9.20% |
17.90% |
Using Rotoviz’s Roster Construction Explorer tool, we can get a clear idea of how teams performed when taking three running backs in their first four picks. From 2021-2023, they all performed below average, at best, but 2024… 2024 was a beast.
Simply put, Robust RB drafters who stopped with six running backs total or fewer had a 25% or more chance of making the second round of the tournament. When 16.7% is the baseline, increasing your average to as much as 29% is outright astonishing.
The graph below shows that if you’re drafting running backs early, you have to stop drafting them; otherwise, it’ll harm your advance rates. As Mike Leone of Establish The Run has said many times, you can draft running backs early or you can draft a lot of them, but you can’t do both.
It shouldn’t be lost that these Robust RB teams might have advanced well to the first round of the playoffs, but then they performed very poorly at that point, as wide receiver-heavy teams, with Ja’Marr Chase in particular, dominated.
ADP Trends
What was it that made 2024 so special for Robust RB drafters? It was a concoction that hadn’t been seen in years to the extent it was.
Top-tier running backs changing teams in Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs, who all cashed in during free agency, alongside 2023 being a massive year for Zero RB, which influenced people to push wide receivers higher up in drafts.
If we look back across the last four years of data, we can see how wide receivers came to dominate average draft position (ADP) in 2024.
|
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
| Round 1 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
| Round 2 |
3 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
| Round 3 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
| Round 4 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
| Round 5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
| Top-50 |
25 |
25 |
30 |
28 |
| Top-100 |
47 |
49 |
51 |
54 |
The receivers peaked with 30 inside the top 50 during 2024, a 20% increase on the previous year. Of course, the failure of those receivers to compete with running backs led to a fall to 28 this year. It’s noteworthy that there are only five receivers in round two drafts this year. The lowest amount since 2022.
Meanwhile, at the running back position, we can see how they were consistently undervalued to their lowest point in 2024 before having a sizeable bounce back for 2025.
|
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
| Round 1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
| Round 2 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
| Round 3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
| Round 4 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
| Round 5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
| Top-50 |
17 |
16 |
12 |
15 |
| Top-100 |
32 |
32 |
28 |
32 |
The big question as we start to build our 2025 best ball portfolios becomes, is it repeatable? It could be, but it relies on one massively important factor that tends to be tricky to predict: Health.
In 2022, the average number of games played by running backs in the top 50 picks was 13.75, with only two playing fewer than 13 games. In 2023, that improved slightly to 13.9. Again, only two backs played fewer than 13 games.
In 2024, the average games played decreased slightly to 13.5, but again, only two backs missed significant time and played fewer than 13 games. Meanwhile, at wide receiver, 13.92 was the average number of games played by receivers in the top 50 in 2022, with seven being below 13 games.
In 2023, the average jumped to 13.96, with five below the 13-game threshold. In 2024, eight players missed that line, dragging the average to 13.04.
Not much of this is predictive, but it shows that the idea that running backs get banged up easier than receivers might not be as reliable an idea as it used to be. Equally, when running backs do miss time, it does tend to be more serious, making a robust lineup potentially fragile, as you’re unlikely to have the depth to recover from injuries.
Robust RB drafts this year could consist of Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving and Josh Jacobs on the same lineup, but it’ll mean not picking a wideout until round four at the earliest, when you’ll be looking at no higher than WR20 as your first player at the position.
Or you could go Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Breece Hall from the other side of the board and potentially have Mike Williams or Davante Adams as your WR1. Either way, you’ll be counting on running back health and hitting gems at receiver later on in the draft, which can be difficult with rookie wide receivers increasingly drafted earlier.
Robust RB also means potentially having to ignore rookies who could be valuable later on in the season as they earn bigger workloads. If you’re taking three backs in your first four picks, will you still be able to take shots at Bhayshul Tuten (116.7 ADP), Jaydon Blue (131.8) or handcuff picks like DJ Giddens, Jarquez Hunter or Devin Neal?
Yes, 2024 was a generationally good run for Robust RB, but sometimes we have to see things for what they are and not assume history will repeat itself again so soon.
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