NBA DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: Thunder vs. Pacers (Game 6)

Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a whirlwind of a season full of ups and downs, but it’s been a successful season, and I hope it’s been the same for you. I just want to say thank you again for following along all year. I hope it’s been as fun for you as it has for me.

If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. It’s a showdown slate day, so you’ll have to get creative with your lineups.

I missed out on Jalen Williams last time out, and I’m likely fading him on Thursday night as well. We’ll see if lightning strikes twice. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top DFS plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Captain/MVP Plays

Chet Holmgren (PF – OKC)

DraftKings: $13,200
FanDuel: $13,800

You know I usually start with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and I’ll say I’m not covering him here in the Captain/MVP spot or as core play because he’s simply too easy of an option. He’s expensive, but he’s going to be highly rostered and won’t be a high leverage option if you’re entering any contest with more than 1,000 contestants.

So, my first option here is Chet Holmgren. After a relatively disappointing outing on Monday, this is an easy opportunity to buy back into Holmgren. He has been consistent, but he’s yet to have a breakout game. He’s come close to 40 points twice but hasn’t gone over it yet this series, despite doing so twice in two games against Denver.

We’ve seen the 50+ point efforts, and I don’t think the Pacers are going to let Jalen Williams go off again. Holmgren took 15 shots last time out. If that usage remains and he gets some more shots to fall, this will be Holmgren’s breakout game.

T.J. McConnell (G – IND)

DraftKings: $7,500
FanDuel: $5,700

This is a big swing and likely to be a big miss, but that’s the risk you have to take in large field GPPs. T.J. McConnell managed 32 DraftKings points last time out, and that’s what we’re going for again tonight.

This is also a bet that Haliburton is more injured than he’s letting on. If he plays, which I expect him to, there’s a chance of re-aggravation or limited minutes for one reason or another. It’s certainly a unique path to take, and McConnell would have to be as efficient as he was last game, but it seems like he’s earned playing time.

McConnell fills the stat sheet when he’s on the court with four boards and four assists despite 22 minutes of playing time. His usage rate sits at 30% when he’s on the court, which is insanely high for a backup guard. Again, this is more so for a large field GPP, but I’m comfortable with him in a leverage spot.

NBA DFS Core Targets

Luguentz Dort (G, F – OKC)

DraftKings: $4,400
FanDuel: $2,800

It’s really hard to fade someone so cheap with so much playing time. Luguentz Dort has played over 33 minutes in three straight games. He needs to be on the court for his defensive prowess. Dort was quite efficient last time out with 30 fantasy points, and I’m returning to the well.

Dort’s ability to grab a board is underrated, and it’s not crazy to think he could run back his performance from Monday. To open the series, he was even better, and he hasn’t done anything to lose playing time. Dort’s usage rate isn’t promising, but his playing time is. For such a salary-saving option, I’m happy with 33 minutes out of anyone, let alone at such a low cost.

Bennedict Mathurin (G, F – IND)

DraftKings: $3,600
FanDuel: $2,000

My next big value option is Bennedict Mathurin. He handled Oklahoma City in Game 3 with 27 points, with seven of those points coming from the charity stripe. With the same T.J. McConnell strategy, Mathurin might get more playing time, and after a 2-for-11 night on Monday, he’s due for a bounce-back.

Mathurin’s playing time has oscillated, but I’m projecting him around for around 25 minutes in Game 6. He’s a dynamic playmaker who averaged 27 minutes a night, and his usage rate has increased to around 27% in the playoffs when he’s on the court.

Seeing his peak performance is enticing and exactly what I’m hoping for. For such a lost cost, he’s a great option. As more of a GPP play, Mathurin is another high-risk, high-reward play.

Pascal Siakam (F, C – IND)

DraftKings: $10,200
FanDuel: $11,800

Again, I’m expecting Oklahoma City to win, and for cash lineups and single-entry contests, I’ll likely be leaning heavier on the Thunder options. But you have to differentiate yourself drastically on a showdown slate to win big when such a clear favorite is involved.

Pascal Siakam has gone back-to-back nights tallying 50+ fantasy points, and I don’t get how he’s not projected for a higher rostership tonight. He can score down low but also has shown the ability to cash it from deep, going 5-for-12 from beyond the arc in the last two games. That’s the way to beat the Thunder. Siakam has shown he can handle their defense without a problem.

Alex Caruso (G – OKC)

DraftKings: $6,600
FanDuel: $5,400

Alex Caruso may score 17 or 35 fantasy points, and I’m riding him after a two-point effort in Game 5. He still played 29 minutes, and that’s what I’m focused on. In Game 5, Caruso missed all three of his three-point attempts, despite going 4-for-8 from deep earlier this series in Game 2.

Caruso is another high-risk option. I advise not going all-in with multiple high-risk options but combining the value of one with more of the clear options like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. We’re focused on the playing time and opportunity with Caruso. He doesn’t start, which means lower rostership and a higher leverage opportunity. I’m buying in for larger-field GPPs.