3 Dynasty Draft Picks to Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

Below are three tight ends I’m currently fading at cost in dynasty fantasy football formats.

Dynasty Draft Picks to Avoid

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

After a promising rookie campaign with 9.4 PPR points per game, Dalton Kincaid climbed as high as TE2 overall in dynasty, as the community was convinced he would only build on his early success. However, the opposite happened in his second season, as Kincaid dropped to a modest 7.8 PPR points per game, which was good for TE18 overall.

Kincaid knows how to earn targets while on the field; the problem is that he doesn’t see the field often. He ran only 62.7% of the routes for Buffalo in 2024, which ranked as the TE17 on the season. This stems from limitations as a blocker. Kincaid blocked on 201 snaps in 2024, ranking down at TE59. Dawson Knox is trusted much more in this role, seeing 370 total blocking snaps.

What does blocking have to do with fantasy production? If you’re in the game for blocking situations, that means you’re in the game for play-action snaps. That covers a large percentage of high-value snaps, particularly near the end zone. This is the same issue that has been plaguing Kyle Pitts year over year. We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends. You’re best to avoid Kincaid in dynasty, or sell while you can still get low-end TE1 prices in return.

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Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

We can make reasonable excuses for Mark Andrews’ shortcomings in 2024. He suffered a significant ankle injury in 2023 against Cincinnati due to a hip-drop tackle, requiring a lengthy recovery. He was also in a major car accident just before the 2024 season, and while there were no reported injuries to Andrews, he may not have been playing at full health right away.

Andrews saw his production gradually increase as the season progressed, which is understandable, given the context. And despite all these hardships, Andrews finished as the TE7 from a points per game (PPG) perspective in 2024.

However, digging deeper, we can see that most of Andrews’ production last year was propped up by touchdown luck. Touchdowns are one of the least predictive metrics when predicting future fantasy production. Andrews led the NFL amongst tight ends with a touchdown rate of 18.2% in 2024, which is not sustainable moving forward. If Andrews’ touchdown rate drops back to league average in 2025 (around 7-8%), we’ll see a massive drop in fantasy production.

In addition, reports suggest the Ravens are working towards finalizing a lucrative extension for Isaiah Likely. He should be the tight end of the future in Baltimore, especially with Andrews heading into his age-30 season.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. So why is Kyle Pitts still being drafted as a top-12 tight end in dynasty? Despite three straight seasons with fewer than nine PPR points per game, Pitts continues to be propped up by name value and perceived upside rather than actual production. As mentioned above with Kincaid, the same issues capping his ceiling apply to Pitts, but arguably to a worse degree.

Pitts posted just a 62.1% route participation last season, well below what we expect from elite fantasy tight ends. But the bigger concern? He’s not earning targets when he is on the field. Watching his film, I believe Pitts lacks any burst or explosion in his game, making it difficult to separate from NFL defenders.

Even in his best season as a rookie, Pitts finished as just the TE11 in PPR points per game. Pitts truthers would argue he would’ve been a league winner had he scored more touchdowns that season (just one touchdown on 68 catches). As we discussed, touchdowns aren’t sticky year to year, but Pitts has never even posted a 9% touchdown rate in any season.

This is not bad luck; instead, it’s due to Pitts not seeing many high-value snaps near the end zone because of his limitations as a blocker. Let someone else buy Pitts and be disappointed for the fourth consecutive year. You can get eight PPR points per game from the tight end position any time you want, for as little as a future third or fourth-round rookie pick.

Thanks for taking the time to check out my dynasty fade article today. If you have any questions regarding your dynasty, devy or C2C teams, I can be reached on X @jim_DFF.