Fantasy Football Draft Busts (2025)

Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. Here’s my fantasy football outlook for a few players in the AFC East.

Fantasy Football Draft Outlook: AFC East

ADP via FantasyPros

Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Tyreek Hill (MIA): ADP 27.2 | WR12

Fantasy players know that wide receivers’ outlook takes a significant hit once they are on the wrong side of 30. Hill turned 31 earlier this offseason after finishing last year as the WR18, averaging 12.8 PPR fantasy points per game. His 12.8 fantasy points per game average was 45.5% lower than his average from 2023 and the lowest mark of his career since his rookie season in 20216. Furthermore, Hill’s six receiving touchdowns were a career low.

Some of his struggles were related to a wrist injury. However, Hill’s best days are behind him, even with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. Last year, he averaged six targets and 8.6 fantasy points per game in the seven contests Tagovailoa didn’t play or left early. By comparison, Hill averaged 8.1 targets and 15.8 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests Tagovailoa finished. Yet, his 15.8 fantasy points per contest average would have only made him the WR14 on a points-per-game basis last season.

More importantly, Hill’s efficiency took a significant hit. According to Fantasy Points Data, his yards per route declined by 50.9% (4.05 vs. 1.99) and his missed forced tackle per reception rate lowered by 57.7% (26% vs. 11%) from 2023 to last year. Furthermore, the loss of Jonnu Smith doesn’t help the veteran wide receiver. Smith’s aDOT was 5.0 last season, while Hill’s has been 11.3 or higher every year in Miami. Fantasy players shouldn’t draft him as a top-15 wide receiver.

James Cook (BUF): ADP 34.6 | RB14

Many had Cook as a third-year breakout candidate last season. After finishing outside the top 10 running backs in his first two years in the NFL, the former Georgia star had a career season in 2024. He finished as the RB8, averaging 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. However, Cook’s breakout didn’t come the way everyone expected. After totaling four rushing touchdowns in his first two years in the league, the veteran was a scoring machine in 2024.

Cook led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns last season, scoring at least once in 75% of the games. However, he didn’t see an uptick in volume. Instead, the former Georgia star’s rushing attempts per game declined from 13.9 in 2023 to 12.9 last year. He had fewer than 13 rushing attempts in over half the contests, including three of the final five regular-season games. Unfortunately, Cook is a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate.

Furthermore, his value in the passing game declined last year. After averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game in the air in 2023, the veteran averaged 4.4 per contest last season, as his target share dropped from 9.3% to 7.7% despite the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. More importantly, Cook and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to him sitting out part of training camp as a negotiating ploy.