Dynasty Running Backs Experts Avoid (Fantasy Football)

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Dynasty Draft Advice: Players to Avoid

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

David Montgomery could be hard-pressed to turn a profit on his low-end RB2 ADP. He shares work with Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs’ first two seasons. I’ll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery in 2025, as I expect an uptick in Gibbs’ usage. We could also see a dip in Montgomery’s TD total. He’s scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery’s usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty’s TD total could slip. He’s a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of an RB3 than an RB2.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

The Browns selected Judkins in the second round of the NFL Draft to be their new early down volume thumper. With Judkins and Dylan Sampson added to this depth chart, I expect Jerome Ford to become a sparsely utilized change-of-pace option. I wasn’t high on Judkins as a prospect, as he ranked outside the top 65 backs in each of the last two seasons in yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating (per PFF). The draft capital and immediate high-volume role have helped to quell some of my pessimism, but Judkins could be held back by the overall ecosystem of the Browns’ offense and his lack of pass game upside. Cleveland’s starting quarterback situation is murky at best. Judkins finished college with 0.76 yards per route run, which isn’t an awe-inspiring number. Clouding Judkins’ availability and ADP is his recent arrest for domestic violence and his still unsigned NFL contract. The NFL has handled off-field issues in a multitude of ways, so I’m not assuming a suspension while we wait for details to continue to surface, but I also wouldn’t rule it out. Judkins missed time in camp and practice will also loom large with his 2025 role in the offense. He’s a risky RB3/4 for 2025.
– Derek Brown

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

Last year, Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Williams had 350 touches and 1,481 total yards. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per-touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again with the new contract secured, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. Williams is a top 15-20 running back who could easily be an RB1 again or see his stock come crashing down.
– Derek Brown

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