Every year, fantasy football experts and managers alike devote countless hours to dissecting ambiguous backfields. These unclear situations are risky, but they are also one of the best places to find cheap upside in your fantasy drafts.
Although they’re not as frequently discussed, the same applies to ambiguous receiver situations. When teams have multiple talented receivers but no clear alpha, their average draft positions (ADPs) are driven down, as fantasy managers want to avoid the risk of backing the wrong horse.
Sometimes, this is the right call, as receivers can cannibalize one another’s value. But more often, one player eventually establishes themselves as the team’s top receiver, and that player ends up being a huge fantasy hit as a result. Meanwhile, other receivers on that team play smaller roles and underperform their ADPs.
That’s what today’s article is about: Attempting to determine which players to target and which to avoid in crowded receiver rooms. I went through this same exercise last year, with mixed results. I correctly identified Nico Collins as an alpha receiver and smash pick, while flagging Jayden Reed and Tank Dell as overvalued. I was also in on Dontayvion Wicks and the Bears’ offense as a whole. Hopefully, this year we can wade through these murky situations to find the values while avoiding pitfalls.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Ambiguous Wide Receiver Situations (Fantasy Football)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans vs. Chris Godwin vs. Emeka Egbuka
With a cursory glance at half-PPR ADP, this situation doesn’t seem too ambiguous. Mike Evans is the clear top option at WR16, Chris Godwin is second at WR36 and Emeka Egbuka brings up the rear at WR47. But that WR47 ranking makes the first-round rookie the highest-drafted third receiver of any NFL team. Given that it is exceedingly rare for three receivers on one team all to find fantasy success, something has to give.
Consulting other ADP sources also points to the tension here. In Underdog’s best ball ADP, which admittedly skews toward younger players, Egbuka has easily flipped Godwin, ranking as the WR37 to the veteran’s WR47.
We also have to consider that Evans’ spot at the top might not be as safe as it seems. In the seven games where they were both healthy last season, Godwin outtargetted Evans 61 to 42. Evans averaged just 11.8 half-PPR points in those games compared to 17.3 without Godwin. Are we sure Evans can produce elite fantasy numbers alongside Godwin, or that he is even the team’s No. 1 WR if everyone is healthy?
On the other hand, Godwin himself is reportedly likely to start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list thanks to the ankle injury that ended his 2024 season. The more we dive into this situation, the more questions there are. But we know that this offense (which ranked third in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns last year) is going to provide some fantasy scoring, so it’s important we answer those questions.
Worst Pick: Chris Godwin
If you had asked me a few days ago, before the most recent discouraging reports on his health, I might have given a different answer here. I actually selected Godwin in a draft at the Fantasy Football Expo this last weekend.
But things change fast at this time of the year. We know now Godwin is almost certainly going to miss at least four games. That’s a substantial chunk of the season, and there’s no guarantee he will be his old self when he returns.
Godwin’s explosive start to last season, in which he produced like an elite fantasy WR1 with 16.1 points per game, is still tantalizing. He’s by no means a must-avoid if he slips past his ADP. But drafting him as your WR3 in the mid rounds is simply setting your team behind the eight ball to start the season, with no guarantee of a substantial payout down the line.
Best Pick: Emeka Egbuka
It certainly doesn’t always work (just look at Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. last year), but simply closing your eyes and drafting first-round rookie receivers is usually a good fantasy strategy (just look at Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. last year). This is especially true when those receivers are relatively cheap, which Egbuka is — for now — at WR47.
Egbuka is tricky to evaluate as a prospect, as he spent most of his four years at Ohio State playing Robin to the Batman (Batmen?) of some of the best college wideouts of the last few years. But he’s a savvy route runner with a skillset that should translate well to racking up fantasy points.
With Godwin out to start the season, Egbuka will get a chance to establish himself as an integral part of this Tampa Bay offense. Yes, Godwin’s return will eventually call his role into question. But Egbuka is still a 22-year-old rookie. Godwin is 29 years old and coming off a substantial injury, while Evans is 32. Betting on the youngest (and cheapest) member of this receiving trio is a low-risk, high-reward play.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
