Earlier this month, I explored our consensus fantasy football projections, examining the running back position. I’m once again examining the projections, but through a wide receiver lens. Below, I have two players that I think will exceed their projections and one who will fall short.
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Fantasy Football Projections: Wide Receiver
Over: Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
Projections:
- 73.9 Receptions
- 962.2 Receiving Yards
- 5.8 Touchdowns
- 203.2 PPR Points
I’m convinced the fantasy football world has, to this point, overlooked Tetairoa McMillan, but I think as August comes to a close and more drafts are conducted, he’ll be respected more.
I get it, he’s on the Panthers and his quarterback is Bryce Young. That said, we saw how Young played at the end of last season. From Week 16 to Week 18, he threw for 612 yards and seven touchdowns. Are those stats good enough to be the MVP of the league? Of course not, but we saw noticeable improvement. Remember, during his rookie season, Young had just 2,877 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. Wide receiver Adam Thielen, at 33 years old, was the WR15 in PPR leagues.
Now, we’re getting Young with more confidence coming off a great end to last season, and his No. 1 target is McMillan, who boasts a top-10 draft pick pedigree. There are no other weapons on the depth chart that make me think he’ll lose out on targets and/or catches. McMillan will finish north of 80 catches and well over 1,000 yards. I think the touchdown numbers could be higher, too, but I’ll wait to see if Young can sustain his late-season success from last season.
Under: Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO)
Projections:
- 57.6 Receptions
- 859.7 Receiving Yards
- 4.8 Touchdowns
- 175.3 PPR Points
This one confused me. Last season, Rashid Shaheed played in six games (started five) and caught 20 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. In 2023, he caught 46 passes for 719 yards and five touchdowns across 15 games (eight starts).
While I understand the appeal, as Shaheed is a big-play waiting to happen, he has dealt with several injuries. Since August 2023, he has suffered a pulled groin, a thigh injury, a hamstring pull, a toe injury and a meniscus tear. Shaheed is about to turn 27. He should be one of the starting outside receivers for the Saints, but I also don’t trust the quarterback position as we wait to see if Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough will be named the starter.
Between the quarterback play and injury history, I’ll take the under on Shaheed’s catches and receiving yards. I do think five touchdowns is possible if he remains healthy, though.
Over: Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB)
Projections:
- 61.6 Receptions
- 780.8 Receiving Yards
- 5.5 Touchdowns
- 171.9 PPR Points
Emeka Egbuka enters the NFL as an already refined route-runner, and he’ll find his way on the field. There’s a lot of talent on the Buccaneers at wideout, but a lot of room for Egbuka to explode. Let’s look at the receivers on this roster:
- Mike Evans has recorded at least 1,000 yards every season of his career, but he’s 32 years old.
- Chris Godwin will miss the beginning of the season as he recovers from an ankle injury he sustained last season. He’ll be activated from the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, but will miss time.
- Jalen McMillan will miss time after suffering a neck injury.
Egbuka will get on the field and be a PPR machine. He also has a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who is coming off a 41-touchdown season. There will be some regression there, sure, but Mayfield will still throw the ball plenty.
I’ll take the over on every category mentioned above for Egbuka.
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