Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel and has 13 games. The suggested pick ’em choices from Underdog are also from the 13-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Nathan Eovaldi is having a sensational season, even if his ERA estimators suggest he’s had a degree of luck. According to FanGraphs, Eovaldi has amassed the following stats in 21 starts spanning 123 innings.
- 1.76 ERA
- 3.16 xERA
- 3.07 xFIP
- 3.20 SIERA
- 0.87 WHIP
- 11 wins
- 13 quality starts
- One shutout
- 4.5 BB%
- 25.5 K%
- 12.7 SwStr%
- 29.1 CSW%
- 98 stuff+
- 105 location+
- 104 pitching+
Obviously, Eovaldi’s ERA overstates how well he’s pitched this year. Still, his underlying data is outstanding, and he has a favorable matchup and sweet betting info tonight.
The Guardians are 27th in wRC+ (91) with a 21.6 K% versus righties and tied for 27th in wRC+ (83) with a 21.4 K% on the road in 2025. Cleveland was also 23rd in wRC+ (89) with a 21.2 K% in the previous 30 days. So, the Rangers are commanding -190 favorites, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Casey Mize’s 5.48 ERA in his previous five starts might throw gamers off using him in DFS tonight, but his 3.61 xFIP indicates he was unlucky. Mize was hurt by allowing 1.57 HR/9 and tallying just a 62.0 LOB% in the last five games. The 28-year-old righty is having a breakout campaign, enhancing the case for giving him a pass on the lousy homer and strand-rate luck in his most recent turns. Mize has a get-right matchup tonight.
The Royals are 26th in wRC+ (93) with a 17.7 K% versus righties and tied for 17th in wRC+ (95) with an 18.8 K% on the road this year. Thus, the Tigers are -158 favorites, and the game’s total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs.
I was tempted to rank Shane Bieber above Mize. However, as a general rule, I prefer to take a less aggressive approach to ranking pitchers in their first start after a stint on the Injured List (IL). Furthermore, Bieber has been on the IL all year. So, this will be his first start in the Majors this season.
Fortunately, Bieber was lights out on his rehab assignment. In seven starts (one in High-A, one in Double-A and three in Triple-A) spanning 29 innings this season, Bieber has spun a 1.86 ERA, 2.33 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 2.8 BB%, 34.6 K%, 15.3 SwStr% and 30.5 CSW%. Bieber did everything he could on his rehab assignment to assuage concerns about hitting the ground running with the Blue Jays. The righty has a decent matchup tonight, too.
The Marlins are tied for 12th in wRC+ (104) with a 20.5 K% versus righties and tied for 22nd in wRC+ (92) with a 21.3 K% at home this season. Miami was also 14th in wRC+ (102) with a 20.3 K% in the previous 30 days. Finally, the Blue Jays are -160 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Cade Povich has pitched well on the road this year, recording a 3.86 ERA. Yet, since his full-season ERA is 4.98, you’ve likely deduced the 25-year-old is a trainwreck at home. In 41.2 innings at home this season, Povich has coughed up a 6.05 ERA, 1.94 HR/9, a .447 wOBA to 49 left-handed batters and a .356 wOBA to 140 right-handed batters. It’s an eruption spot for the Astros.
- Home (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/BAL -112
Lance McCullers has a laughable 6.90 ERA in 11 starts this season, and his 5.27 xERA, 4.97 xFIP and 4.72 SIERA also paint a bleak picture of the quality of his pitching this season. In addition, McCullers might be even less sharp since he’s returning from the IL tonight and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since July 19. Finally, McCullers has allowed a .316 wOBA to 109 lefties and a .442 wOBA to 107 righties this year. The Orioles should tee off tonight.
Core Studs
- Gunnar Henderson has belted eight dingers with a .409 OBP, .297 ISO, .443 wOBA and 190 wRC+ in 159 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
- In 375 plate appearances against lefties since 2023, Jose Altuve has mashed 12 taters with a .389 OBP, .183 ISO, .383 wOBA and 151 wRC+.
- Michael Harris has hit 10 homers with 25 runs, 25 RBIs, two stolen bases, a .393 OBP, .324 ISO, .463 wOBA and 203 wRC+ in his previous 146 plate appearances.
Value Plays/Punts
- Carlos Correa has launched 15 long-balls with a .362 OBP, .218 ISO, .366 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in 330 plate appearances against lefties since 2023.
- Cam Smith has detonated four bombs with a .384 OBP, .224 ISO, .388 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in 99 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie season.
- Samuel Basallo is one of the best prospects in Major League Baseball, and he hit 23 homers with 49 runs, 67 RBIs, a .377 OBP, .319 ISO, .413 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in 321 plate appearances in Triple-A this season.
Friday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Gunnar Henderson (SS, DH – BAL): 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Henderson has done his best work with the platoon advantage at his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Still, he also has a track record of punishing righties. Henderson has a .360 OBP, .258 ISO, .384 wOBA and 151 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
Jose Altuve (2B, OF, DH – HOU): 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Altuve is in rock-solid form entering tonight’s contest. In his previous 109 plate appearances, Altuve has hit five homers with 13 runs, 11 RBIs, three stolen bases, a .330 OBP, .165 ISO, .324 wOBA and 107 wRC+.
Jackson Holliday (2B, SS – BAL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher
Jackson Holiday is in the ideal spot to pile up hits, runs and RBIs atop Baltimore’s lineup. Moreover, he’ll benefit from having the platoon advantage at home tonight. Holliday has 30 singles, eight doubles, zero triples, eight homers, a .280 batting average, .328 OBP, .195 ISO, .346 wOBA and 123 wRC+ in 177 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
