This article seeks to identify rookies who are not worth their ADP in mid-August. I’ll be identifying each player’s ADP based on expert consensus rankings (ECR) to identify where they are being drafted relative to their rookie peers.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Overvalued Rookies to Avoid in Fantasy Football
With a strong rookie class entering the NFL in 2025, these are the names I would pass over in favor of other players in similar ranges or better situations.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
- ECR: 126 (RB8 among rookies)
Everything about this whole Quinshon Judkins offseason screams stay away. Whether it’s legal trouble, contract disputes or performance concerns, the early second-round pick out of Ohio State has had trouble from almost the moment he was drafted. In other words, he fits right in with the Cleveland Browns.
Judkins was arrested for domestic violence and battery this offseason, which will surely lead to a legal journey that will end in a suspension. He has already waived his right to a speedy trial, and there is a chance he will be placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List to start the season. That is the first strike against him.
The rookie back has also not signed a contract with the Cleveland Browns yet. I am sure the Browns are waiting to see how the legal drama unfolds at this point, but a player can’t play without a contract, so Judkins is not an option to play, much less be on a practice field right now. Even when he does join the Cleveland backfield (assuming he does), he will join a committee backfield that consists of Jerome Ford and fellow rookie Dylan Sampson. Both of those players will have miles of reps and experience ahead of Judkins.
Judkins was also very much a bruising style back in college, and there are questions about the transferability to the NFL. Defenders in the NFL are stronger, faster and more athletic. Judkins certainly could carve out a first and second-down role for Cleveland, but the warning signs are too bright for me to go down that road.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
- ECR: 141 (WR4 among rookies)
After the Chicago Bears’ preseason game this weekend, Luther Burden was the topic of part of head coach Ben Johnson’s press conference. After giving Burden some props for coming in early and asking the right questions, Johnson also dropped the dreaded “things are not where they need to be right now” comment about Burden.
This is not what you want to hear, less than four weeks until the regular season begins. Burden is already facing serious target competition from DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and fellow rookie Colston Loveland. If Burden is well behind in the passing pecking order, his draft rank of rookie WR4 is too rich for me. Give me Matthew Golden slightly later in drafts right now.
Burden is a burner who can fly past defenders, but he only had a 19.8% target share in his last year of college and compiled just 676 yards in 12 games. We also can’t overlook the fact that there is no guarantee Caleb Williams will succeed in Johnson’s system. It’s a significant upgrade over last season, but Williams is the one who still has to execute it on the field.
Jack Bech (WR – LV)
- ECR: 194 (WR9 among rookies)
Even though Jack Bech is a talented wide receiver out of TCU and was taken in the second round this year, the Raiders’ draft for 2025 will always be judged for what happens with Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers seem to be the new focal points of this offense, and wide receivers come further down the pecking order.
Bech has not been able to separate himself from rookie wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. in camp, and now sees himself as a backup on the Raiders’ first depth chart. That’s not written in stone, but it shows that Jakobi Meyers and Thornton are also likely to get more targets than Bech.
In his first preseason game, Bech ran 16 routes on the perimeter out of 17 total. That’s a bad thing for Bech, as the Raiders need to find a slot receiver. If Bech isn’t even working in that area, it’s a sign he will be backing up other perimeter receivers this season.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
