This time of year, it’s easy to get caught up in fantasy football sleepers and peeking into our crystal ball to see who the next breakout players are. As much of an advantage as that can be, equally important is avoiding players who are being over-drafted. Let’s dig into running backs who are currently being overvalued, based on their current average draft position (ADP).
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Running Backs to Avoid
David Montgomery (RB – DET) | ADP: 57 (RB22)
Blocking out the Jahmyr Gibbs noise and drafting David Montgomery the last couple of seasons has brought a solid return on investment for fantasy managers, but how long can that continue? Now 28 years old, coming off a torn MCL last year, and a monster 2024 season from Gibbs, this is a different bet than managers were making the last few seasons.
Those factors are not the only clouds raining on Montgomery’s parade, however, as the Lions face more questions on the offensive side of the ball than they have in recent years. The mastermind behind the exotic play designs we’ve all grown to love has taken his talents to Chicago, and Detroit’s offensive line lost Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler on the interior, which will likely impact Montgomery’s running style more than that of Gibbs.
There have been rumblings about the backfield duo sharing the field more frequently this season, but how viable is that in an offense that features Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta? Even if they share the field more frequently, it doesn’t guarantee more touches. Both Montgomery and Gibbs received the ball more frequently when they were on the field in 2024 than they did in 2023, and those rates are likely to regress when you project the Lions’ offensive output.
If losing Ben Johnson and multiple offensive linemen wasn’t enough, Dan Campbell’s squad posted historic numbers last season. Their 68 offensive touchdowns were the second-most in a single season, second only to the Broncos and Peyton Manning’s record-breaking season in 2013. The Lions tied for the league lead in touchdowns per game in 2023 with 3.5 and led the category in 2024 with 4.1 while finishing with a +222 point differential.
The point is that the Lions dominated on offense the last two years, and those numbers are due for a natural regression. After we factor in the departure of Johnson and the turnover on the offensive line, we may be looking at much different game scripts in 2025, and thus, fewer traditional running plays that favor Montgomery, and fewer goal-line opportunities.
Perhaps John Morton will prove to be as effective as Johnson, but he has stated that his philosophy is to keep his best players on the field, and that would suggest a high snap rate for Gibbs. In 2017, Morton’s lone season as an offensive coordinator, he gave Bilal Powell, similarly sized to Gibbs, 65% of the Jets’ carries inside the 5-yard line compared to 28% for Matt Forte. If Gibbs is on the field more frequently, sees a higher share of the goal-line opportunities and the offense regresses, Montgomery is unlikely to sniff his total of 13 or 12 touchdowns he hit in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Aaron Jones (RB – MI) | ADP: 65 (RB24)
In his first season with the Vikings, Aaron Jones played in all 17 games, the third time he’s played a full season in his eight-year career. It was a strong season for Jones overall, accumulating 1,546 all-purpose yards and taking seven trips to the end zone on a career-high 306 touches. With the increase in usage came a dip in efficiency for Jones, falling to 34th in yards created per touch (3.35) after finishing 2023 at 15th (3.76). His PFF rushing grade slipped to 75% last season after posting a rushing grade of 79% or greater in each of his seven seasons in Green Bay.
Coming off the highest usage of his career, it would be less than surprising to see the 30, going on 31, year old back break down this season. The Vikings likely agree, considering they brought in Jordan Mason, giving him a sizeable two-year contract of $10.5 million with $7 million guaranteed. Mason was a revelation last season, finishing seventh in true yards per carry (4.8) and ninth in yards per touch (5.4), and profiles as more of a between-the-tackles runner.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell has referred to Jones and Mason as a 1A and 1B combination, and that almost certainly includes a goal-line role for Mason and significant early-down work to save Jones the wear and tear. After a fully healthy season in which he amassed a career high in touches, Jones finished at just RB20 in points per game (14th overall) and is now being drafted as the RB24 this season, despite a gloomier outlook. The RB20 finish also came on a team that scored the ninth-most touchdowns in the NFL and now turns the offense over to a rookie quarterback.
Jones is being drafted closer to his ceiling than I’m comfortable with, and there are not only other running backs I’d prefer in that range, but he’s also going ahead of receivers like Travis Hunter, George Pickens and Calvin Ridley. Meanwhile, Mason is a far better bet at RB39 with 116 overall pick.
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