Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel and has 12 games. The suggested pick ’em choices from Underdog are also from the 12-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Garrett Crochet is a road warrior. According to FanGraphs, he has spun a 2.93 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 6.2 BB% and 32.6 K% in 169 innings on the road since last season. The lefty ace is also in fantastic form, tallying the following statistics in his last five starts spanning 32 innings.
- 3.66 ERA
- 2.94 xERA
- 2.02 xFIP
- 2.18 SIERA
- 0.94 WHIP
- Three wins
- Four quality starts
- 1.6 BB%
- 34.9 K%
- 14.1 SwStr%
- 30.1 CSW%
- 122 stuff+
- 110 location+
- 126 pitching+
Crochet has a stellar matchup and favorable betting info tonight.
The Rays are 22nd in wRC+ (83) with a 24.4 K% versus lefties and tied for ninth in wRC+ (107) with a 22.2 K% at home in 2025. Tampa Bay was 14th in wRC+ (104) with a 23.6 K% in the previous 30 days. So, the Red Sox are listed as -132 favorites, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Pablo Lopez’s season was interrupted by a stint on the injured list (IL). Nevertheless, he’s pitched well when he’s toed the slab. Lopez has authored the following statistics in 13 starts this year, totaling 71.2 innings.
- 2.64 ERA
- 3.80 xERA
- 3.84 xFIP
- 3.77 SIERA
- 1.10 WHIP
- Five wins
- Four quality starts
- 6.1 BB%
- 24.1 K%
- 11.7 SwStr%
- 27.6 CSW%
- 94 stuff+
- 113 location+
- 107 pitching+
Lopez has a drool-inducing matchup and sweet betting info tonight.
The Guardians are 27th in wRC+ (88) with a 22.2 K% versus righties and 28th in wRC+ (83) with a 22.2 K% on the road this year. They were worse lately, ranking 28th in wRC+ (77) with a 24.5 K% in the previous 30 days. Thus, the Twins are -125 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.
The Yankees are first in wRC+ (118) with a 23.5 K% versus lefties and first in wRC+ (119) with a 23.8 K% on the road this season. The Bronx Bombers were also third in wRC+ (127) with a 25.8 K% in the previous 30 days. In addition, according to Baseball Savant’s 2025 park factors, Orioles Park at Camden Yards is tied for the fourth-highest park factor for runs (108). What could go wrong suggesting a pitcher in DFS under those conditions?
Setting aside the snark, Trevor Rogers’ salary is too low at DraftKings relative to his elite data. In his last four starts spanning 24.1 innings, he’s ripped off the following stats.
- 1.48 ERA
- 2.91 xERA
- 3.45 xFIP
- 3.73 SIERA
- 1.19 WHIP
- Two wins
- Two quality starts
- 8.0 BB%
- 26.0 K%
- 14.2 SwStr%
- 28.1 CSW%
- 91 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 94 pitching+
Interestingly, many of Rogers’ season-long numbers are as good or better than those listed in his previous four starts. So, he’s not merely on a four-start heater. There’s obviously a massive risk to using a lefty against the Yankees. Nevertheless, Rogers has a high ceiling and a desirable salary, making him an intriguing GPP pick.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Will Warren is a train wreck on the road. He has a 5.74 ERA and 4.16 xFIP in 80 innings on the road since last season. Warren is also in a funk. He has a 5.40 ERA, 7.51 xERA, 5.02 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA in his previous five starts. Finally, Warren has surrendered a .355 wOBA to 321 batters on the road this year, making the Orioles a desirable offense to stack.
- Home (Rate Field)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/CWS +140
Dylan Cease is the poster child for underperforming ERA estimators. He has a 4.55 ERA and 3.69 xFIP in 178 innings on the road since last season. Cease has a 4.59 ERA, 3.50 xERA, 3.55 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA in 30 starts this season. Finally, Cease has a 4.44 ERA, 3.58 xERA, 3.56 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA in his previous five starts. At some point, Cease is responsible for his ugly ERA and not merely a victim of bad luck. As a result, stacking the White Sox at value salaries is appealing and fits well with the suggested pitchers and the Orioles.
Core Studs
- Gunnar Henderson has recorded a .360 OBP, .249 ISO, .380 wOBA and 148 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- Jackson Holliday was held out of yesterday’s lineup with a minor injury, but the Orioles also faced a lefty, making it the perfect time to give him a day off. His props are available, suggesting he’ll be back in the lineup for a sweet matchup tonight. Holliday has drilled 13 dingers with a .340 OBP, .150 ISO, .331 wOBA and 113 wRC+ in 447 plate appearances against righties this season.
- Jeremiah Jackson has ripped five round-trippers with 19 runs, 21 RBIs, a .323 OBP, .178 ISO, .338 wOBA, .304 xwOBA and 118 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances this season.
Value Plays/Punts
- Kyle Teel has launched eight long-balls with a .381 OBP, .166 ISO, .367 wOBA and 136 wRC+ in 223 plate appearances against righties in his rookie season.
- Mike Tauchman has a .360 OBP, .124 ISO, .330 wOBA and 111 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- Andrew Benintendi has mashed 20 taters with 57 runs, 62 RBIs, one stolen base, a .306 OBP, .190 ISO, .316 wOBA, .330 xwOBA and 101 wRC+ in 469 plate appearances this season.
Friday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Gunnar Henderson (SS, DH – BAL): 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Henderson is a monster with the platoon advantage in his renovated home ballpark. In 204 plate appearances against righties at home this season, Henderson has hit nine homers with a .382 OBP, .261 ISO, .403 wOBA and 163 wRC+.
Jackson Holliday (2B, SS – BAL): 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Holliday is in superb form. In his previous 110 plate appearances, he’s hit two homers with 11 runs, seven RBIs, six stolen bases, a .391 OBP, .132 ISO, .350 wOBA, .336 xwOBA and 126 wRC+. Meanwhile, Warren has yielded a .393 wOBA to 171 left-handed batters on the road this season.
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, DH – KC): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher
Vinnie Pasquantino is rolling into tonight’s game. He’s tallied 30 hits (17 singles, seven doubles, zero triples and six homers), 15 runs, 21 RBIs, a .283 batting average, .328 OBP, .236 ISO, .355 wOBA, .375 xwOBA and 125 wRC+ in his previous 27 games and 116 plate appearances.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
